It'll help those with estimates in the 17s+ if the CET stations can exceed the model maximums as much as my locality has been of late.
After reaching 25.6*C today, which even I was surprised by (expected 24s like yesterday given a breeze from the S but even Bournemouth Airport was untroubled with a max of 25.5*C there - Channel cooling cancelled!), the integer FV3 model errors look like this for July so far.
Columns are prediction range (days), minimum temp error (*C), maximum temp error (*C).
2 |
-1 |
-2 |
3 |
-1 |
-3 |
4 |
-5 |
-3 |
3 |
2 |
-3 |
4 |
1 |
-1 |
3 |
0 |
-5 |
2 |
-4 |
-2 |
3 |
2 |
-2 |
4 |
-2 |
-5 |
3 |
1 |
-3 |
As you can see, the minimum errors are inconsistent in both magnitude and direction (5 negative, 4 positive, one neutral), but the maximum errors are consistently negative and predominantly between -2 and -3*C. I use integers for easier at-a-glance assessment.
The existence of three-5s, with two at just 3 days range, is laughably sad .
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