This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during July, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard. 

June has been a rather cool month and will finish close to the 1971-2000 mean. The June analogue analysis was fairly accurate. My best guess from the analogues was a range of 14.0C to 14.5C. It looks like we will finish close to 14.2C. If only I had followed this analysis more closely with my prediction.... So on to July.

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for July should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.

The deadline for predictions is 2359 on 30 June (Sunday evening). 

Now on to some data for July

Historic CET summary for July 

1971-2000 16.5C (30 years) 

1981-2010 16.7C (30 years)

1999-2018 16.8C (last 20 years) 

July last year was very warm with 19.1C but prior to that we had three rather uninspiring Julys with 2016 and 2017 close to average and 2015 rather cool.

Here is a chart of the July CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to larger version of the chart

Latest model output 850hPa and T2m temperatures - 27 Jun (12z)

GEFS (12z) - very average 850s. But we now know that 850s can be deceiving even in the summer.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

T2m temperatures are uninspiring to say the least. The ENS mean only gets to 20C twice in London in the first 13 days - oh dear!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM ENS (00z) - to me this looks a bit warmer than GEFS

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

This is confirmed by the T2m's - above 20C every day from 4 Jul. Looks like the 12z GEFS was a cool run 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gem&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

The 12z ECM ENS T2m temperatures for De Bilt as also poor. As per GFS for London they struggle to get above 20C. Only 4th July is a little warmer. There are a few warmer runs in FI but not many.

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook  

Not yet available

Monthly outlook at BBC website

After a brief warmer period next week it looks very poor for the rest of the month

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

CFS V2 (0z 27 Jun)

Looks slightly warmer than average for July

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2019062700/cfs-8-7-2019.png?00

JMA

850hPa temperatures close to average but slightly above just to the south of the UK 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201906.D2612.png

ECM

Close to average for each of the first three weeks of July

https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190624_0000+33600.png

https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190624_0000+50400.png

https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190624_0000+67200.png

Beijing Climate Centre

Looks a bit below average for the UK

https://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/download/Prediction/MD2gen/20190626/figure/md2019066gl_t2m2_2.gif

My CET has been PM'D. My mean of 10 is already to go.

My July 2019 prediction is now officially in and so it will therefore be interesting to see how that comes out.

My July 2019 prediction is now officially in, and I've gone for something which is roughly around 1°C above the 1981-2010 average.

It will therefore be interesting to see how that comes out.

Surely the idea of sending the figure by PM is so you do not let others know what you went for...…

My July 2019 prediction is now officially in, and I've gone for something which is roughly around 1°C above the 1981-2010 average.

Is there any merit / relevance in posting this John ? 

 

 

Surely the idea of sending the figure by PM is so you do not let others know what you went for...…

I didn't.

I just gave a rough indication here of what I think the temperature anomaly might be against the 1981-2010 average which to me, doesn't equate in any way to quoting what my actual guess was.

 

Is there any merit / relevance in posting this John ? 

Yes.

This is the CET thread for July which means that I'm just as entitled as anyone else to give a rough indication of how I think, the CET anomaly for July (which is after all, the relevant month for this thread, the last time that I checked) especially since I haven't said what my actual guess for this month actually is (which would be probably be a different story altogether) will be like.

I don't see why this should be such a problem with certain members because if it is, then that would just show that it seems to be that it is a case of certain rules being in place here for certain favoured members of this forum and completely different rules for everyone else which is not what this forum should be about.

The CET competition is meant to be just for fun, and I would be grateful if this was how it was actually treated.

 Yes.

This is the CET thread for July which means that I'm just as entitled as anyone else to give a rough indication of how I think, the CET anomaly for July (which is after all, the relevant month for this thread, the last time that I checked) especially since I haven't said what my actual guess for this month actually is (which would be probably be a different story altogether) will be like.

I don't see why this should be such a problem with certain members because if it is, then that would just show that it seems to be that it is a case of certain rules being in place here for certain favoured members of this forum and completely different rules for everyone else which is not what this forum should be about.

The CET competition is meant to be just for fun, and I would be grateful if this was how it was actually treated.

 

Play nicely John, exert some patience and wait a few days like the rest of us. That is all we are asking. 

 

Play nicely John, exert some patience and wait a few days like the rest of us. That is all we are asking. 

I am playing nicely, otherwise I would probably be saying much worse things on this forum (including this thread) than what I have actually being saying until now even if that came with the risk of Brian deleting my account as a result (indeed, there has been occasions when people have said certain things which have led me to feel like doing so, although I always refrain from doing so in the end).

I am happy to wait a few days like everyone else, but that should not mean that I can't in the meantime give a vague indication on this thread of what I think that next month's CET anomaly might be like which I was all that I was trying to do.

 I am playing nicely, otherwise I would probably be saying much worse things on this forum (including this thread) .

 

Why so much anger ? I can't think of anything about this particular thread that would cause you to risk getting your account deleted ? 

 

Why so much anger ? I can't think of anything about this particular thread that would cause you to risk getting your account deleted ? 

I'm not angry at all.

You're the one who's making a mountain out of a mouse hole here by turning this into such a big issue when I would have otherwise had nothing more to say on this matter.

I'm only saying that there has been times in the past when I may well have said things which risked me having my account deleted, but have refrained from doing so.

There has after all, been a number of people who have said far worse things than me on this forum in the past, and been banned from this forum as a result.

I on the other hand, am sensible enough to not go down that route so if I were you, I would just leave it at that, and just accept what I was trying to do from my earlier posts above since I don't want to cause any unnecessary trouble here at the end of the day.

Thanks John. It would be helpful for this competition if you didn't offer early clues next month as your expertise may be mimicked by someone else to gain an unfair advantage. 

Back to the competition I've had a shocker and will end up 1c too high with my prediction.

This illegal heatwave is a direct consequence of brexit ! 

Thanks John. It would be helpful for this competition if you didn't offer early clues next month as your expertise may be mimicked by someone else to gain an unfair advantage. 

Back to the competition I've had a shocker and will end up 1c too high with my prediction.

This illegal heatwave is a direct consequence of brexit ! 

I don't think that this will happen as everyone on this forum has their own expertise in this subject and I think that that they will be more likely to use their own judgement on that anyway as a result, rather than going by anything which I say here.

Since I have already admitted on this forum anyway that there are members of this forum who are far more knowledgeable than me anyway in the field of model output (which is why I only rarely ever post anything on the model output thread for example), this should be enough info anyway for other members to realise that they are much better going by what those members with greater expertise than me on this subject (such as Stormchaser or GW) are saying when it comes to making their formal predictions for that, rather than go by anything which I am saying here.

However, that to me is all the more valid a reason for why I should be allowed to give a rough prediction of what I think will happen on any given month regardless of whether or not we have passed the official deadline for those predictions, and as long as I'm not actually giving my actual predictions here. For that reason, I don't believe that I shouldn't be disallowed from continuing to give my own judgement on what I think that a particular temperature anomaly should be on any given month just because you don't like me doing so.

In any case, the main condition of me being a member of this forum is that I agree to abide with its rules and until now, I have always ensured that I have followed these rules to the best of my abilities. If there was anything in these rules to say I'm not allowed to give a rough guide on what I think that a CET temperature anomaly will be even whilst predictions are still being submitted, this would therefore mean that I no longer agree with those rules and am therefore no longer willing to abide by those rules. Under those circumstances, it will therefore not bother me one single bit whether my account was deleted or not.

 

I don't think that this will happen as everyone on this forum has their own expertise in this subject and I think that that they will be more likely to use their own judgement on that anyway as a result, rather than going by anything which I say here.

Since I have already admitted on this forum anyway that there are members of this forum who are far more knowledgeable than me anyway in the field of model output (which is why I only rarely ever post anything on the model output thread for example), this should be enough info anyway for other members to realise that they are much better going by what those members with greater expertise than me on this subject (such as Stormchaser or GW) are saying when it comes to making their formal predictions for that, rather than go by anything which I am saying here.

However, that to me is all the more valid a reason for why I should be allowed to give a rough prediction of what I think will happen on any given month regardless of whether or not we have passed the official deadline for those predictions, and as long as I'm not actually giving my actual predictions here. For that reason, I don't believe that I shouldn't be disallowed from continuing to give my own judgement on what I think that a particular temperature anomaly should be on any given month just because you don't like me doing so.

In any case, the main condition of me being a member of this forum is that I agree to abide with its rules and until now, I have always ensured that I have followed these rules to the best of my abilities. If there was anything in these rules to say I'm not allowed to give a rough guide on what I think that a CET temperature anomaly will be even whilst predictions are still being submitted, this would therefore mean that I no longer agree with those rules and am therefore no longer willing to abide by those rules. Under those circumstances, it will therefore not bother me one single bit whether my account was deleted or not.

 

You're such a rebel John ! 

John, nobody’s suggesting you’re likely to get your account deleted and I think we all understand you.  You may not know this, as it happened before you came to TWO, but we used to post our predictions on this thread and everyone could see what we’d each predicted.  That led to some of us waiting for the ‘expert’ predictors to post so we could copy.  -  Not guilty ma’lud!  But we all know I’m rubbish at this!  

So, to make it fair, GW decided it would be better to pm predictions directly to him and to keep them under wraps until after predictions closed, so that nobody had an unfair advantage.  I know you didn’t give away exactly what you’d predicted, that’s fair enough, but you did give clues and I hope you can see why this was brought up.  Perhaps it just wasn’t explained well enough.  No problem though.  As you say it’s a fun thread and we’re all friends.  So, let’s leave it at that!

Anyway, my guess is in!  I just hope it’s a bit easier this month and the weather behaves nicely!  Good luck for July everyone! 

John, nobody’s suggesting you’re likely to get your account deleted and I think we all understand you.  You may not know this, as it happened before you came to TWO, but we used to post our predictions on this thread and everyone could see what we’d each predicted.  That led to some of us waiting for the ‘expert’ predictors to post so we could copy.  -  Not guilty ma’lud!  But we all know I’m rubbish at this!  

So, to make it fair, GW decided it would be better to pm predictions directly to him and to keep them under wraps until after predictions closed, so that nobody had an unfair advantage.  I know you didn’t give away exactly what you’d predicted, that’s fair enough, but you did give clues and I hope you can see why this was brought up.  Perhaps it just wasn’t explained well enough.  No problem though.  As you say it’s a fun thread and we’re all friends.  So, let’s leave it at that!

Anyway, my guess is in!  I just hope it’s a bit easier this month and the weather behaves nicely!  Good luck for July everyone! 

Thanks Caz. You've said it perfectly. 

John, nobody’s suggesting you’re likely to get your account deleted and I think we all understand you.  You may not know this, as it happened before you came to TWO, but we used to post our predictions on this thread and everyone could see what we’d each predicted.  That led to some of us waiting for the ‘expert’ predictors to post so we could copy.  -  Not guilty ma’lud!  But we all know I’m rubbish at this!  

So, to make it fair, GW decided it would be better to pm predictions directly to him and to keep them under wraps until after predictions closed, so that nobody had an unfair advantage.  I know you didn’t give away exactly what you’d predicted, that’s fair enough, but you did give clues and I hope you can see why this was brought up.  Perhaps it just wasn’t explained well enough.  No problem though.  As you say it’s a fun thread and we’re all friends.  So, let’s leave it at that!

Anyway, my guess is in!  I just hope it’s a bit easier this month and the weather behaves nicely!  Good luck for July everyone! 

I can understand what you're saying, but the point that I am making is that since there are people with more expertise on this subject than me such as GW and Stormchaser, anything which I say on that subject surely therefore has to be much less of a clue than what it would be if it was these members who were giving out these clues.

This means that surely, what I said here would be far less likely to be taken seriously as a result which means that even if I did give what was at the end of the day, just a rough prediction of what I think that the CET anomaly will be, I would therefore not expect that that be seen as much of a clue and because of that, I don't really see where unfair advantage comes from that.

Because of that, I continue to stand by what I said before that it doesn't really matter whether or not I say what the CET anomaly is likely to be just now and so, I will continue to carry on with what I was doing before in that regard as a result (this is freedom of speech at the end of the day, which I will always continue to defend).

I also haven't indicated that I expect my my account to deleted at any point in time. However, Brian has every right to do that as this site's owner if he deems that I'm not following the agreed rules for this forum. All I'm saying is that if there was ever such a rule which stated that I can't give any rough guides for what the CET anomaly will be even whilst formal predictions are still being submitted, that would then create a set of rules for this forum which I would then no longer be willing to abide by and so under those circumstances, it wouldn't bother me one single bit if my account was deleted as a result.

Because of that, I continue to stand by what I said before that it doesn't really matter whether or not I say what the CET anomaly is likely to be just now and so, I will continue to carry on with what I was doing before in that regard as a result (this is freedom of speech at the end of the day, which I will always continue to defend).

A very disappointing viewpoint John. Caz has put this very delicately and explained the position. Sometimes in life you have to take it on the chin and play by the rules, no matter what the circumstances and also accept that your actions will sometimes have an effect on others.

Its an unwritten rule and one out of respect that we don't show our cards. Allowing you to will then allow some one else next month and so it begins.

I would leave it there now. Its not all about you. 

 

A very disappointing viewpoint John. Caz has put this very delicately and explained the position. Sometimes in life you have to take it on the chin and play by the rules, no matter what the circumstances and also accept that your actions will sometimes have an effect on others.

Its an unwritten rule and one out of respect that we don't show our cards. Allowing you to will then allow some one else next month and so it begins.

I would leave it there now. Its not all about you. 

Well, I could give certain examples of cases where certain people haven't been willing to follow certain rules (that's where Brexit comes from after all) but then, I shall leave that for discussion within the UIA forum rather than here.

 

You're such a rebel John ! 

And proud of it as well, mate!!