June 2016 saw average overall rain for Scotland however some parts were wetter than average whilst others dryer. 

England however saw 150% average but again with the wettest and driest parts being apart... Parts of southeast England had their wettest June on record that year.

 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2016/june

 

Interestingly that June started fine like this year but went downhill after the first week as a low became trapped over England due to high pressure to the N.E.W.S of the UK.... Again much like this year.

Also interesting is around the 23 heavy thunderstorms broke out over the southern England from a plume.. Well going into next week the weather is forecasted to be more plume like down here with thunderstorms in the forecast 

2016 was a big year for me and not just for footballing reasons (those of you who know which Scottish football team I support will no doubt know exactly what I'm talking about here) as that was also the same year in which I first joined the TWO forum (as you will have seen from the last part of my user name) and if my memory serves me right, I think that it was even around this time during that year when I joined this forum.

Becoming a regular contributor to this forum was something which took a bit of time for me to establish but even back then, I was already starting to collect data for my local area which I would later use in those reports which I submit to this forum these days.

The data which I collected back then shows that we had around average rainfall during all three summer months during that year with the entire summer having average rainfall as a result. I can also remember the NE of Scotland being wetter than average back then both during June 2016, and also during the whole of the summer of 2016. From my memories alone though, I have no recollection of anywhere being drier than average at that time.

However, data never lies and it is from the actual data that the actual evidence of what really happened at that time comes from. Because of that, I then checked the rainfall anomaly maps for that time on the Met Office website based on the 1981-2010 averages. I first looked at the maps for June 2016 and discovered that there was indeed, parts of Scotland which were drier than average during that period.

Of course, this left the possibility that I could have got what was happening in June 2016 mixed up with what happened during that entire summer and so, I then looked at the same maps for that whole summer. What I then discovered is that once again, there was parts of Scotland which had a drier than average summer during that year.

From that, this just shows how actual memories can become blurred and distorted very quickly and I would probably say from that, that because I just wasn't remembering the fact that some places were actually drier than average at that time, it was getting stuck in my mind that Scotland as a whole had to be wetter than average overall at that time as a result. Now that I have checked those Met Office reports for that period though, I now know that this wasn't actually the case.

Recently in the MO thread, I commented that for some reason, we just can't get any sustained wet periods in this part of the world with that being a pattern which goes all the way back to the middle of April 2018. The following data for the past week clearly backs up what I was saying there:

Monday 10 June 2019: Completely dry at both Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.
Tuesday 11 June 2019: Completely dry at both Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.
Wednesday 12 June 2019: 14.2 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 7.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.
Thursday 13 June 2019: 5.2 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 7.4 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.
Friday 14 June 2019: Completely dry at both Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.
Saturday 15 June 2019: Completely dry at both Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.
Sunday 16 June 2019: Completely dry at both Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as at 7am this morning.

Total for this week: 19.4 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 14.6 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.
Average for this week: 2.8 mm per day at Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 2.1 mm per day at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.
1981-2010 June Average: 2.1 mm per day at Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 2.0 mm per day at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

First of of all, we can see this week started off with a dry spell here and now, we have gone into yet another dry spell as the above data shows.

Secondly, we can see that there has only been two days during this week where it has actually rained with the rest of the week being completely dry.

Those two days do make up a fairly wet period but overall, but we can see that this week as a whole wasn't actually all that much wetter than average here even though that was a very wet week in general across the UK with a number of locations being flooded out as a result.

If there is anything which shows just how much of a struggle it can be at times to get some real and proper sustained rainfall into this part of the world, this has to be it and as I mentioned earlier on, this has been constantly on-going here since the end of April 2018 even though those brief wetter spells which we have had more recently were enough for both March and May of this year to be wetter than average overall, and for the recent spring to be wetter than average overall as well.

As I mentioned in that previous MO post as well, this is due to the fact that the jet stream never sticks around here for any length of time and is either too far north of here with the result that it is really just the north of west of Scotland which gets all of the rainfall as was the case during last summer, or too far to the south of here which then means that it is really only England and Wales which gets the most of any rainfall which is around as was the case during last week.

Today has been pleasantly warm with some decent sunny spells.  The first day in a week without any rain, although the rain was welcome.  Tomorrow and Wednesday could be interesting as we have yellow warnings of thunder. 

As I write, our highest temperatures so far during this summer are 18.1°C at Edinburgh Gogarbank, 18°C at Edinburgh Airport and 19.4°C at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. As you will see from that, we haven't yet had a single day during this summer so far where the temperature has reached 20°C at any of my three local stations and because of that, I then commented on yesterday's CC thread that it has probably quite a while since the last time that this happened.

As a result of that, I then decided to look back at the archives to find the last time that this happened. As my starting point, I chose Edinburgh Gogarbank as the station to find any data for and from there, I decided to troll through all of the data for each June, July and August since those are the three months which make up our meteorological summer. Edinburgh Gogarbank was chosen because it is the easiest one to find data for apart from Edinburgh Airport, and because the temperatures for there are recorded to the nearest 0.1°C whereas the temperatures at Edinburgh Airport are reported only to the nearest 1°C.

It turns out that Edinburgh Gogarbank has only been around since 2003 so that for before then, I had to go with the data for Edinburgh Airport. As it turns out though, the temperatures at Edinburgh Airport were actually reported to the nearest 0.1°C until around the year 2000 when the current system of only reporting temperatures for there to the nearest 1°C came into effect.

There was some very poor summers showing up in those records and because of that, there were some months showing up which had just the one day where the temperature got above 20°C. For just about every month which I was looking at though, the temperature was always getting above 20°C on at least one occasion..

It turns out in fact, that we actually have to go all the way back to August 1986 to find the last summer month where the temperature failed to reach 20°C at any point in time in this part of the world. That was at Edinburgh Airport where the temperature during that month got no higher than 18.7°C on 16 August 1986. If you include today, there are just 12 possible days left within this month where the temperature could go above 20°C here. Looking at the latest model out put though, the omens are not looking good for that at all.

Because of that, there is every chance that this month could indeed, end up being our first summer month since at least as far back as August 1986 (and I see at least here, since I still haven't managed to include the botanic gardens in Edinburgh within that overall picture) where the temperatures at all three of my local stations have failed to reach 20°C at any point in time. That in turn, shows just how much of a complete non-event, this so-called "summer" has been so far.

Highest here so far this month has been 19.7C and there is certainly the possibility of it failing to reach 20C all month which is just shocking and if such a basic threshold for warmth can’t be reached in a summer month then you may as well be living in Lerwick.

This would be the third June to fail to reach 20C since 2007 (along with the absolute horrors of 2007 and 2012) compared to only two in 75 years prior to that (1971 and 1990), which just says it all really. The climate here is just getting worse and worse from all conceivable viewpoints from the lack of warmth to the lack of frost, lack of snow, lack of heavy convective rain. It’s just so bland and tedious all the time.

A level 2 heatwave alert is in place for; West Midlands, south-west and south-east England

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:35 on Wed 26 Jun 2019

There is a 70 % probability of heat health criteria being met between 0600 on Thursday and 1800 on Saturday in parts of England.

Very warm or hot conditions are expected in the west of the country over the next few days, with these warmer conditions moving eastwards into the weekend. Cooler conditions are then expected from Sunday onwards. Trigger criteria are most likely to be met in southern areas between Friday and Saturday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

The next few days could bring uninterrupted sunshine here, which means a 3-day total a little over 45 hours is possible.

That's going to be a big deal because as of this morning, June's the dullest on record here having not even managed 100 hours of sunshine. 

For some eye-widening context, February has had 100+ hours here seven times since 1953!

Ha - as I type this, it's just become so dull outside that I've had to put the ceiling light on in here . Should see at least a little sun by mid-afternoon though.

Anyway, after another 45 or so hours, this June would be in the 140s, still in the lowest 5% of years since 1953. 

Say there's an hour or two today and at least 5 on Sunday, then it'll finish in the 150s and in the lowest 10% of years.

Still tragic, but not as bad as it could have been! 

I have no records of sunshine but this month has certainly given (is still giving) us a few very gloomy, damp days and I’m sure it would fare badly in comparison stats. 

I have no records of sunshine but this month has certainly given (is still giving) us a few very gloomy, damp days and I’m sure it would fare badly in comparison stats. 

I also didn't have any sunshine records for my area before I joined this forum. Since then though, I discovered weathercast.co.uk which is where I get my up to date sunshine records for Edinburgh Gogarbank which I use on the daily CC threads.

What you will notice though, is that it isn't every station on that site which gives a record of sunshine totals, and it tends to be only really the major stations which give that information. That is why in my case, it is only for Edinburgh Gogarbank which I have been able to get data from there for sunshine hours, even though I can also get other data from there for Edinburgh Airport and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

However, it may well be that you might find such a station in your area for which you can then get the up to date sunshine data for from weathercast.co.uk, so that is worth looking into. Another possible place to look for that is the Met Office observations site which is where I get the sunshine data for the botanic gardens in Edinburgh from, although that doesn't tend to be kept so much up to date.

As for here, it could get very interesting indeed in terms of sunshine totals for the rest of this month because based on what the last few days and indeed, this month has been like at Edinburgh Gogarbank, it is very unlikely that this month will be anything other than duller than average overall.

However, it is not yet mathematically impossible for this month to be sunnier than average here overall in the end. This means that if the last few days of this month was to end up being really sunny, that could yet be quite a realistic possibility although I would still say that this is rather unlikely with only a very small outside chance of that actually happening.

Thanks John. The problem is our nearest official station is 25 miles away which isn’t as local as I’d like and my own WS doesn’t record sunshine either.  But it’s worth having that information. Thank you!  

Thanks John. The problem is our nearest official station is 25 miles away which isn’t as local as I’d like and my own WS doesn’t record sunshine either.  But it’s worth having that information. Thank you!  

I also forgot to add as well, that www.weatheronline.co.uk is also quite a good place to go to find some past weather records which could also provide some sunshine data for your nearest station.

I like how this summer's improved since soon after Moomin wrote it off

I like how this summer's improved since soon after Moomin wrote it off

June might not have delivered the best weather but it certainly proved to be interesting.  Heavy rain, thunder storms, heatwaves and all. Not that I got all that but it was good to follow what others were getting via the TWO forum. 

To me, the only decent thing about this summer up until now is the fact that we had two thunderstorm events here in Edinburgh in the space of just five days with our one and only brief burst of summer to date sandwiched in between them, and with the first one of those thunderstorm events delivering almost three quarters of the entire 1981-2010 June average rainfall to Edinburgh Gogarbank in just a single day.

Apart from that, I can't really say that we've had much of a summer so far. Having said that though, this summer isn't turning out to be anything like as bad as what it looked like it was going to be, to start off with and since we have done quite well on the thunderstorms front so far, I can't really complain too much (otherwise I would be posting this in the moaning thread instead of here).

Yellow warning for thunderstorms issued for tomorrow

12:00 Tomorrow 21:00 Tomorrow

Heavy, and possibly thundery, showers may cause some travel disruption and flooding in places during Wednesday afternoon and evening.

What to expect

• Some flooding of a few homes and businesses likely, leading to some damage to buildings or structures


• Probably some damage to a few buildings and structures from lightning strikes


• There is a good chance driving conditions will be affected by spray, standing water and, leading to longer journey times by car and bus


• Delays to train services are possible


• Some short term loss of power and other services is likely

Heavy showers, some of them perhaps thundery, are likely to develop during Wednesday afternoon across parts of Scotland. Whilst many areas will miss the heaviest showers, where they do develop, slow-moving and heavy downpours are possible. There is potential for 15-25 mm of rain in an hour and 30-40 mm in 2-3 hours. Showers will then fade away during the evening.

Central, Tayside & Fife

• Angus


• Dundee


• Fife


• Perth and Kinross

Grampian

• Aberdeen


• Aberdeenshire


• Moray

Highlands & Eilean Siar

• Highland

SW Scotland, Lothian Borders

• East Lothian


• Scottish Borders

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-07-10&id=710b6be9-abee-406d-ac4b-598f8f54bd87&details

So far July has been perfect for me.  Plenty of sunshine with low to mid 20’s during the day and high single figures to low teens at night.  Nothing too muggy and still warm enough to sit out in the evenings.  

We have yellow warnings of thunder storms on Thursday from midday to 21:00.  A bit of rain is welcome for the garden and all the better if we get thunder with it!  

So far July has been perfect for me.  Plenty of sunshine with low to mid 20’s during the day and high single figures to low teens at night.  Nothing too muggy and still warm enough to sit out in the evenings.  

We have yellow warnings of thunder storms on Thursday from midday to 21:00.  A bit of rain is welcome for the garden and all the better if we get thunder with it!  

That's not going to be very good for here in Edinburgh though, especially if we get any more flash flooding along with that such as what we had during the first thunderstorm event in particular, which we had during June although I am always happy to see a bit of thunder and we have done fairly well on that front during this summer so far.

I am going to be down in the Scottish Borders town of Hawick for a week from next Monday (15 July 2019) until the following Monday (22 July 2019) when I will be spending some time with my family down there, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we can at least get some decent weather for that.

On one hand, three of the last four months have been wetter than average here with April being the only drier than average month amongst that. This shows that when it has rained here recently, it really has rained as was the case when we had that flash flooding during June.

Yet, not a single wet spell which we have had since around the middle of April 2018 has never actually lasted for any significant length of time, and has usually always been followed by a fairly significant dry spell as after that as the very dry start to this month which we had going into today has shown.

If that pattern continues any further then with the forecast models suggesting that it is likely to get drier here again at the weekend, that could well be good news for next week's trip since this would suggest that this drier weather is then likely to continue into next week as well.

In the meantime though, we will just need to bear the brunt of whatever big downpours come our way over the next couple of days or so as part of this latest wetter period which we have now just gone into.

Been a poor summer here so far so obviously very variable region wise. It's been mild and benign but oh so cloudy, especially of late with very few sunny days or clear nights. It's also been very dry which would be ok if it was sunny but it just means empty water butts and lots of trips to the tap to water the flowers and vegetables. Despite forecasts of heatwaves and thunderstorms we've had one hot day and a rumble of thunder.