Global Warming
Saturday, June 8, 2019 10:56:44 AM

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - PLEASE READ CAREFULLY

I am going to make a few changes to the competition for the second half of the year. The reason being that the predictions are becoming almost too predictable and with very little spread.

So with immediate effect I will not be publishing any forward looking analysis before the prediction deadline. Too many people now seem to be picking a figure within my analysis range, as you will see when I post the June predictions. I will still publish the analogue and other analysis but only after the deadline. Only the raw historic data will be published in advance.

The deadline for predictions is going to move back to the last day of the month with immediate effect. I will still allow predictions up to the 2nd of the following month but penalties will be reintroduced for predictions made after the end of the month. No exceptions. You don't need to wait for the thread to be opened as all predictions are by PM and can be made at any time. So there should be no excuses.


Global Warming
Saturday, June 8, 2019 11:04:31 AM

Here are the predictions for June. All too predictable it would seem. This has to be one of the narrowest spread of predictions ever I think. See rule changes above for July onwards.

Link to full size table

UserPostedImage


Bertwhistle
Saturday, June 8, 2019 11:08:58 AM

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - PLEASE READ CAREFULLY

I am going to make a few changes to the competition for the second half of the year. The reason being that the predictions are becoming almost too predictable and with very little spread.

So with immediate effect I will not be publishing any forward looking analysis before the prediction deadline. Too many people now seem to be picking a figure within my analysis range, as you will see when I post the June predictions. I will still publish the analogue and other analysis but only after the deadline. Only the raw historic data will be published in advance.

The deadline for predictions is going to move back to the last day of the month with immediate effect. I will still allow predictions up to the 2nd of the following month but penalties will be reintroduced for predictions made after the end of the month. No exceptions. You don't need to wait for the thread to be opened as all predictions are by PM and can be made at any time. So there should be no excuses.

Thanks GW

All seems like fair play to me.

How's the competition going to the end of May?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, June 8, 2019 11:33:32 AM

Thanks GW.

Yes indeed if you think changes need to be made, I’m happy with whatever you do and as Bertie says, it’s fair play!   


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition  

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, June 8, 2019 12:11:04 PM

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - PLEASE READ CAREFULLY

I am going to make a few changes to the competition for the second half of the year. The reason being that the predictions are becoming almost too predictable and with very little spread.

So with immediate effect I will not be publishing any forward looking analysis before the prediction deadline. Too many people now seem to be picking a figure within my analysis range, as you will see when I post the June predictions. I will still publish the analogue and other analysis but only after the deadline. Only the raw historic data will be published in advance.

The deadline for predictions is going to move back to the last day of the month with immediate effect. I will still allow predictions up to the 2nd of the following month but penalties will be reintroduced for predictions made after the end of the month. No exceptions. You don't need to wait for the thread to be opened as all predictions are by PM and can be made at any time. So there should be no excuses.

I'm not sure what the problem is here. You publish analysis that suggests the CET may be this that or the other, then complain when people take that advice and post their predictions accordingly??

Anyhow from what I recall of the predictions so far this year they have been pretty wide. June does look pretty tight though but I suspect that's just a one off. You will notice that I'm seriously at the bottom of the pile there, no just going with the averages for me!

Still, it's your competition and you can run it how you want. However if this gets too 'heavy' and descends into arguments over rules then I'm out of here, can't be arsed with all that.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

johncs2016
Saturday, June 8, 2019 1:16:27 PM

My tactic of going for a really warm value hasn't worked for me recently, so I have gone for a much cooler value this time.

Given the manner in which this month is panning out at the moment though, I have a feeling that even my latest much cooler guess might be too high this time.

I know that this isn't the moaning thread, but it is just like the thing that this is happening just now during this complete non-event which is known as our "summer", otherwise I'm sure that everything would probably be coming out much warmer than what it is just now, especially if we were in our winter just now.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, June 8, 2019 4:45:33 PM

Originally Posted by: Col 

 

I'm not sure what the problem is here. You publish analysis that suggests the CET may be this that or the other, then complain when people take that advice and post their predictions accordingly??

Anyhow from what I recall of the predictions so far this year they have been pretty wide. June does look pretty tight though but I suspect that's just a one off. You will notice that I'm seriously at the bottom of the pile there, no just going with the averages for me!

Still, it's your competition and you can run it how you want. However if this gets too 'heavy' and descends into arguments over rules then I'm out of here, can't be arsed with all that.

Col, I can assure you that this thread never descends into arguments.  It’s a fun and light hearted competition with friendly banter. GW has always run it in a fair manner and puts a lot of time and effort into it. I am more than happy to go along with any rule changes he suggests as I trust him to do what’s best. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition  

Gusty
Saturday, June 8, 2019 7:40:33 PM

Originally Posted by: Col 

Still, it's your competition and you can run it how you want. However if this gets too 'heavy' and descends into arguments over rules then I'm out of here, can't be arsed with all that.

You'd be cutting your nose off to spite your face if you did that Col. You're in a good position.

I support the changes GW. A good move IMO 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Darren S
Saturday, June 8, 2019 7:49:25 PM

I support GW's rule change too. To be honest I thought it a bit strange that he was effectively almost recommending what your guess should be; I think it's better if everyone figures it out themselves, whether that be by pattern matching, model watching or finger in the air! 


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

Winter 2022/3: Snow Days: 0 Snow Cover Days: 0 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 0 cm Total Depth: 0 cm

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Bertwhistle
Saturday, June 8, 2019 7:57:23 PM

Totally agree with all the above comments. Actually, I don't really mind what GW's rules are- I'll play by them because it's a really enjoyable  part of each month and it doesn't cost me a short cross penny. And Col- you're good at this- lead us on!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, June 9, 2019 5:30:36 AM
I take GWs notes as guidance that's all. Just information in order to help you pick a figure. Let's face it beyond 1-2 weeks out you're pretty much on your own anyway. A lot of work must go into producing all that and I'm sure it is appreciated so it will be a shame to see it go.
Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Bertwhistle
Sunday, June 9, 2019 8:25:40 AM

Some recovery expected after next weekend, with 3 of the 4 CET stations expecting average daily temps around 17 and even Squires Gate expecting around 16. Would need to be maintained beyond there to offset the cooler stuff in the week ahead by very much. Love to hear any predictions based on the current outputs for where the CET might stand around,say, two weeks from now. Fools errand to think it would be accurate at that range I know, but someone might be willing to stick out their neck to within half a degree...a degree? If it's about 14 now, I think by then we'll still only have made it to about 14.3. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, June 9, 2019 9:46:34 AM

Originally Posted by: Col 

I take GWs notes as guidance that's all. Just information in order to help you pick a figure. Let's face it beyond 1-2 weeks out you're pretty much on your own anyway. A lot of work must go into producing all that and I'm sure it is appreciated so it will be a shame to see it go.

I always take into account the averages of previous years and have to admit I’d be totally lost without that information.  I also like the projected CET charts that GW provides throughout the month and are never far off the mark.

You’re right though, it must take a lot of time and effort to produce all the information GW provides and whether people use it or not, I’m sure it is very much appreciated by all.  It is after all, just a forecast according to the MO and depends on that being correct at the time.  But, maybe omitting it is a way of reducing the enormous workload that must go into this thread.  

As others have said, you’re good at this!  

 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition  

ARTzeman
Sunday, June 9, 2019 10:03:06 AM

Met Office Hadley        13.8c.       Anomaly       0.5c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     13.89c       Anomaly      -0.26c

Netweather                  14.47c       Anomaly      0.38c

Mean of My 10 Watched Stations    14.08c.   Difference   -1.25c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, June 9, 2019 4:07:16 PM

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I always take into account the averages of previous years and have to admit I’d be totally lost without that information.  I also like the projected CET charts that GW provides throughout the month and are never far off the mark.

You’re right though, it must take a lot of time and effort to produce all the information GW provides and whether people use it or not, I’m sure it is very much appreciated by all.  It is after all, just a forecast according to the MO and depends on that being correct at the time.  But, maybe omitting it is a way of reducing the enormous workload that must go into this thread.  

As others have said, you’re good at this!  

 

Good, or just got lucky? I have actually made CET predictions since August last year and none of those were particularly good. It was quite fortuitous that I hit form in January as joint winner.

That said it's looking good for me at the moment for June. I went for one of the lowest predictions at 14.4C and we are well below that now. With a lot more cool weather on the way even much warmer weather in the last week (which needs to happen because I am on holiday then) probably won't bring the average up too much.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

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