This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during June, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
May has been a rather cool month and will finish slightly below average.
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.
The deadline for predictions this month is 2359 on Sunday evening (2 June).
Now on to some data for June:
Historic CET summary for June
1971-2000 14.1C (30 years)
1981-2010 14.5C (30 years)
1999-2018 14.8C (last 20 years)
The last two Junes have been very warm with 16C CET returns. Those were the first years the May CET was above 16C since 2003. We had a number of cool Junes in 2011-2013 and 2015 with returns between 13.5C and 14C.
Here is a chart of the June CET for all years since 1961:
Direct link to larger version of the chart
Latest model output 850hPa temperatures - 30 May
GEFS (12z) - hot initially then turning quite cool for about 4 days before turning much warmer again, potentially hot although a lot of scatter from 8 June.
GEM ENS (00z) - similar picture to the GFS
Multi Op (00z) - good cross model agreement. The 0z GFS did not go warm in FI
The 12z ECM ENS T2m temperatures for De Bilt show only a brief cool down after the weekend but less heat later in the run than the GFS. There are a few hot runs but not many.
Met Office contingency planners outlook
Probabilities for both June and the summer suggest an increased likelihood of a slightly warmer than average period.
Last month the analogue signal was slightly out but not by much. It signalled something between 11.6C and 12.1C as being most likely. The final figure may be 11.2C.
This month I am looking at years with Apr and May CET figures similar to this year and including March where possible. Taking the Apr and May figures the best matches since 1948 are 1948, 1961, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2005, 2010 and 2015. Generally the June CET was close to or slightly above average in these years ranging from 13.5C to 15.5C. If we ignore the outliers we have a range of 14.0C to 15.2C.
The best matches for Mar-May are 1948, 1997 and 2005. These years had a CET of 13.5C, 14.1C and 15.5C. So that is not very helpful.
If we include the Feb CET as well the best match is clearly 1997. All four months are very close to 2019.
So the analogues suggest the June CET may be close to the 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 means - i.e. 14.0C to 14.5C. There is a not insignificant chance of something a bit warmer at or just above 15C.
First look at June temperature tracker
The tracker is suggesting we could be close to 15C by the 13th. So that would imply the CET could end well above the analogue range. The potential is certainly there for quite a warm month but there is a lot of uncertainty as the long models have been flipping around quite a lot in recent days. So confidence is low at the moment.
Edited by moderator
30 July 2019 10:00:41
| Reason: Not specified