Should be massively ahead by the end of March! A decent summer could see us heading for 11C.

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Currently running at +1.71 for YTD which means the rest of the year would need to be +1.32C to beat the record.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

Always interesting following this running average because it’s so much like limited overs cricket.

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April update

Still close to 1C above average for the year as a whole against the 1971-200 mean

The CETs for this year so far are pretty similiar to those of 1961. April is the biggest difference between the two but it has been pretty similiar.

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2019 running CET mean to end of May

The CETs for this year so far are pretty similiar to those of 1961. April is the biggest difference between the two but it has been pretty similiar.

Indeed. 1997 is also very similar if you start from February.

The summer of 1961 was very poor. 1997 was mixed with a cool June, average July, but hot August.

We are due a hot August. Since 1997, only 2003 had an August CET above 18C. In fact since 2004 the August CET has never been above 17C. But then again since 1950 the August CET has only been higher than 17C on 12 occasions, so about once every 6 years on average. Given it has been 15 years now since the August CET was above 17C we are most definitely due a hot August.

 

Indeed. 1997 is also very similar if you start from February.

The summer of 1961 was very poor. 1997 was mixed with a cool June, average July, but hot August.

We are due a hot August. Since 1997, only 2003 had an August CET above 18C. In fact since 2004 the August CET has never been above 17C. But then again since 1950 the August CET has only been higher than 17C on 12 occasions, so about once every 6 years on average. Given it has been 15 years now since the August CET was above 17C we are most definitely due a hot August.

That true.

Even when we had that really good summer during last year, we still failed to get a decent August (although even that wasn't as bad the dross which we are having to put up with just now).

Given just how bad a start this so-called "summer" has got off to though, I think that it would a huge bonus for us if ANY of this month's summer months turned out to be decent regardless of when that happens, since this month is clearly not going to be one such decent summer month with the manner in which this is turning out just now.

 

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The annual CET has now dipped slightly below 0.5C above the 1981-2010 mean. 

The first 6 months of 2019 are the 17th warmest first half of the year since 1989 (i.e. 17th in the past 31 years) so middle of the pack.

So 16 warmer first halves of the year in the past 30 years but in the 330 years prior to that there have been only 18 warmer first halves of the year. 

No real change to the anomaly in July as the month had a similar positive anomaly to the overall year to date

https://i.imgur.com/10CL9SA.png

https://i.imgur.com/FMkiNQ1.png

For the year as a whole we remain around 0.5C above the 1981-2010 mean after a relatively warm August

2019 Hadley CET

2019 monthly anomaly

September was slightly above average so the year as a role remains significantly above average

Chart 1

Chart 2

October had the coldest anomaly of the year so far. But we are still above the long run mean for the year as a whole.

Chart 1

Chart 2

I would expect that November as a whole will be below average, although there is potential for milder temperatures in the last third of the month. Will be interesting to see what the average is by the end of the year. A cold December may flip the annual CET back to a median value.

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A second below average month sees the annual anomaly come down further. We should still end the year above average unless December is very cold.

TABLE1

TABLE2

The final CET for 2019 comes in at 10.34C. 

So although Col missed out on winning the main CET competition he does win this one with his prediction of 10.36C. Closely followed by Grandad who was 0.05C out and GezM at 0.06C.

CHART1

CHART2

The final CET for 2019 comes in at 10.34C. 

So although Col missed out on winning the main CET competition he does win this one with his prediction of 10.36C. Closely followed by Grandad who was 0.05C out and GezM at 0.06C.

 

Really?? I'd pretty much forgotten about this one, certainly haven't been following it!

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The final CET for 2019 comes in at 10.34C. 

So although Col missed out on winning the main CET competition he does win this one with his prediction of 10.36C. Closely followed by Grandad who was 0.05C out and GezM at 0.06C.

I think Essan had 10.34 exactly.....

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I think Essan had 10.34 exactly.....

Can we still access the year predictions? the links seem to say 'no longer available' etc. 

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I forget about this one as well and I can’t remember what I predicted.

As much as I like these competitions, the monthly thread attracts far more attention throughout the year, while this one tends to get forgotten. Maybe it’s time to call time on this one, or combine it with the monthly one if that’s practical.  

I do think it’s interesting to see how the year performed overall though. So maybe a summary at the end of each month and a final one in the December thread would suffice.  

Just my thoughts!    

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I forget about this one as well and I can’t remember what I predicted.

As much as I like these competitions, the monthly thread attracts far more attention throughout the year, while this one tends to get forgotten. Maybe it’s time to call time on this one, or combine it with the monthly one if that’s practical.  

I do think it’s interesting to see how the year performed overall though. So maybe a summary at the end of each month and a final one in the December thread would suffice.  

Just my thoughts!    

Agreed. Let’s use the monthly threads to highlight how the temperature is tracking for the year as a whole. This thread is hardly used apart from my monthly updates so can be merged into the main CET thread.