Wrt the MO thread please see:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20046

 

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Significant rain for some parts of northern England over the next 10-days flooding quite possible if GFS is right

06z GFS shifted the flooding rain up to Scotland 

Lot's of rain warnings out for parts of England this coming week

04:00 Tomorrow to 23:59 Tomorrow

There is a chance that heavy prolonged rainfall could lead to local flooding and disruption to transport.

What to expect

• There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings


• Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services


• Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures


• There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Reason for update

Updated to increase the area affected - extending this southwards down to the English Channel and westwards into much of Oxfordshire, Warwickshire and Derbyshire. The start time has also been brought forward with heavy rain pushing into far southeast England early on Monday. The warning now ends at the end of Monday but further warnings for part of the area have been issued for Tuesday onwards.

Areas of, at times heavy, rain will push north and then westwards across much of south and east England on Monday. Whilst some places will miss the worst of the rain 10-25 mm of rain may occur quite widely, with some areas potentially seeing up to 60 mm and much of this falling in less than 6 hours. There is also a chance that thunder may develop later in the day over parts of East Anglia and the far southeast of England.

• East Midlands


• East of England


• London & South East England


• West Midlands


• Yorkshire & Humber

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-10&id=f11648ee-62b2-4547-9b81-c11493579a28&details

00:00 Tue 11 to 23:59 Tue 11

There is a chance that heavy prolonged rainfall could lead to local flooding and disruption to transport.

What to expect

• Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures


• Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services


• There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings


• There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Further spells of rain, heavy at times, will continue to affect parts of eastern England during Tuesday. Whilst some places will miss the worst of the rain, a further 10-25 mm may fall quite widely, with some areas potentially seeing up to 60 mm. Much of this may fall in 6-12 hours, mainly during the first half of Tuesday. There is also a chance that thunder may develop later in the day in the south of the warning area once the morning's rain clears.

• East Midlands


• East of England


• North East England


• West Midlands


• Yorkshire & Humber

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-11&id=f68f16c2-cfc9-45d8-a0ad-d1c09da3dacd&details

 

Looking ahead beyond today, it looks as though the coming period after today won't be as wet as what it has been recently, and it might even warm up a bit as well. However, the outlook still remains rather changeable and still not all that warm for this time of the year.

I know that we are only really at the beginning of this summer with plenty of time left to go. However, the medium term model output is now taking us towards the end of this month and even into the start of July. Once we get to the end of month, we will then be a third of the way through this summer and with no signs of any proper summer weather before then, we are now already beginning on rely on July and August as being the only two remaining months within this summer where that could happen.

That is a whole two months and anything can yet happen, but I would say that time is already starting to run out for those of us who are still clinging onto some forlorn hopes that this might yet end up being a decent summer overall since this is probably going to have start happening by the middle of July if that is going to happen at all.

From that perspective, I would therefore have to say that the omens do not look good, although this isn't an actual "summer is over" post.

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Summer is certainly not over.  But it is certain to be very very short, if at all.

To have a feel of a decent summer, we need to have settled warm  weather in May, preferably with a sprinkling of hot days (personally, I use the measure of hot days in May as an omen for the rest of the summer)

You definitely need those conditions in June.

Both of those are missing this year.  

Augusts appears to have lost it's ability to settle for the most part, decades ago.

What is the probability of having anything near 4 weeks of settled weather in July?

This is also not a 'summer is over' post, but it is a realistic proposal that this summer is in all probability going to be very short and recorded as poor and below average.

 

 

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Summer is certainly not over.  But it is certain to be very very short, if at all.

To have a feel of a decent summer, we need to have settled warm  weather in May, preferably with a sprinkling of hot days (personally, I use the measure of hot days in May as an omen for the rest of the summer)

You definitely need those conditions in June.

Both of those are missing this year.  

Augusts appears to have lost it's ability to settle for the most part, decades ago.

What is the probability of having anything near 4 weeks of settled weather in July?

This is also not a 'summer is over' post, but it is a realistic proposal that this summer is in all probability going to be very short and recorded as poor and below average.

 

I'm of the mindset that a nice 6 weeks covering the second half of July and all of August makes me forgive whatever rubbish has come before during that summer.

And although we've not had a great August since 2003, it doesn't mean this year won't deliver one.

 

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I have sympathy with the 6 week angle. After all, we have no choice.

As for August. I reiterate. I am thinking about probability. Maybe 17 years since 2003 will be the lucky one? Maybe not.

There is September, but only one of those has offered hot weather in recent decades.

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Summer is certainly not over.  But it is certain to be very very short, if at all.

To have a feel of a decent summer, we need to have settled warm  weather in May, preferably with a sprinkling of hot days (personally, I use the measure of hot days in May as an omen for the rest of the summer)

You definitely need those conditions in June.

Both of those are missing this year.  

Augusts appears to have lost it's ability to settle for the most part, decades ago.

What is the probability of having anything near 4 weeks of settled weather in July?

This is also not a 'summer is over' post, but it is a realistic proposal that this summer is in all probability going to be very short and recorded as poor and below average.

 These claims are not backed up statistically as far as I can see. I have already posted some examples of poor June starts leading to better conditions later.

Thinking of May, it's true that some great Mays were precursors to good summers (1989 an example) but May 1983 was dire- followed by a top 10 summer including the second hottest July in the CET series. Similarly, May 2012 delivered, but the summer...

 

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 These claims are not backed up statistically as far as I can see. I have already posted some examples of poor June starts leading to better conditions later.

Thinking of May, it's true that some great Mays were precursors to good summers (1989 an example) but May 1983 was dire- followed by a top 10 summer including the second hottest July in the CET series. Similarly, May 2012 delivered, but the summer...

 

 

Thanks for the reply and info (which I always appreciate), but that is not what I mean

 

I am referring to the longevity of a summer.To 'feel' that it has been a decent summer, it needs to have been spread over a number of months, from about May onward.

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I’m with Saint regarding August.

We had a lot of good weather in May and only one week of rain so far this month, which the garden needed.  I think we have very short memories when it comes to weather.  We get three or four wet and dreary days and tend to think the whole season’s bad.  

The astronomical summer doesn’t start until 21st June and that’s always been my benchmark and people tend to have their summer holidays in July an August.  So if July and August are good, we’ve had a good summer in my book.  I actually feel disappointed and let down if we have good weather in June and July, then it breaks down in August.

I’m hopeful of better weather during the school holidays this year.  

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I’m with Saint regarding August.

We had a lot of good weather in May and only one week of rain so far this month, which the garden needed.  I think we have very short memories when it comes to weather.  We get three or four wet and dreary days and tend to think the whole season’s bad.  

The astronomical summer doesn’t start until 21st June and that’s always been my benchmark and people tend to have their summer holidays in July an August.  So if July and August are good, we’ve had a good summer in my book.  I actually feel disappointed and let down if we have good weather in June and July, then it breaks down in August.

I’m hopeful of better weather during the school holidays this year.  

We can all hope for the best while fearing the worst. That's my philosophy anyway.

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We can all hope for the best while fearing the worst. That's my philosophy anyway.

Not me!

My philosophy is to hope for something acceptable, then if we get the best it’s a bonus but there’s absolutely no point fearing something we have no control over!  Sometimes, worrying about what might happen, prevents us enjoying what we have.  Glass half full!  

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Not me!

My philosophy is to hope for something acceptable, then if we get the best it’s a bonus but there’s absolutely no point fearing something we have no control over!  Sometimes, worrying about what might happen, prevents us enjoying what we have.  Glass half full!  

Moomin - I have a friend [ex cop] who says: "Expect the worst and you will not be disappointed."

Roger

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Moomin - I have a friend [ex cop] who says: "Expect the worst and you will not be disappointed."

Roger

Ahhh!  But don’t fear what you expect!  

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This June has so far been very much like June 2016 in both weather conditions & pressure set up, and appears set to continue in such a way.

I'm starting feel this summer could end up being similar with generally quite average conditions. A mixed summer but overall meh one.

July was dry with average sunshine in the south but dull and wet further north. Heat wise only a couple of hot (plume related) day's but generally very average. August unsettled at times but with a hot plume.

This June has so far been very much like June 2016 in both weather conditions & pressure set up, and appears set to continue in such a way.

I'm starting feel this summer could end up being similar with generally quite average conditions. A mixed summer but overall meh one.

July was dry with average sunshine in the south but dull and wet further north. Heat wise only a couple of hot (plume related) day's but generally very average. August unsettled at times but with a hot plume.

I can see a bit of that here as well because although June 2016 brought no more than average rainfall here, Scotland as a whole was wetter than average during that month.

During this month, the UK as a whole is wetter than average and since the local rainfall totals here are already not all that short of the 1981-2010 June average, it would seem from this that it should be odds on that this month ends up being wetter than average here.

However, there are no more deluges in the forecast for the foreseeable future with any rainfall likely to be of a more showery nature. This means that there is always the chance that we could get lucky and miss most of those of those showers and if that happens, then we cannot completely rule out the possibility that we might yet get away with this month having no more than average rainfall here overall as was the case in June 2016.

 

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I can see a bit of that here as well because although June 2016 brought no more than average rainfall here, Scotland as a whole was wetter than average during that month.

During this month, the UK as a whole is wetter than average and since the local rainfall totals here are already not all that short of the 1981-2010 June average, it would seem from this that it should be odds on that this month ends up being wetter than average here.

However, there are no more deluges in the forecast for the foreseeable future with any rainfall likely to be of a more showery nature. This means that there is always the chance that we could get lucky and miss most of those of those showers and if that happens, then we cannot completely rule out the possibility that we might yet get away with this month having no more than average rainfall here overall as was the case in June 2016.

 

June 2016 saw average overall rain for Scotland however some parts were wetter than average whilst others dryer. 

England however saw 150% average but again with the wettest and driest parts being apart... Parts of southeast England had their wettest June on record that year.

 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2016/june

 

Interestingly that June started fine like this year but went downhill after the first week as a low became trapped over England due to high pressure to the N.E.W.S of the UK.... Again much like this year.

Also interesting is around the 23 heavy thunderstorms broke out over the southern England from a plume.. Well going into next week the weather is forecasted to be more plume like down here with thunderstorms in the forecast