Summer looks set to open up borderline hot towards the SE corner with temps in the uppers 20s here low to mid 20s quite widely for England and Wales on Saturday before cooler air spreads in on Sunday with the last of the heat clearing later in the day in the SE

 

 

 

Early next week has the potential for a deep area of low pressure to pass close to the UK the exact position of this is still open to doubt 

 

 

The met office seem to be hinting at a warmer, but possibly wetter than average summer 

Temperature summary

For June and June-July-August as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for June-July-August will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 45 and 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For June and June-July-August as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. On balance, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. The probability that UK-average precipitation for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jja-v1.pdf

After next week's unsettled spell we could get some significant heat from the east both gfs and Ecm flirting with the idea. It's a straw to clutch anyway. 

 

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The met office seem to be hinting at a warmer, but possibly wetter than average summer 

Temperature summary

For June and June-July-August as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for June-July-August will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 45 and 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For June and June-July-August as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. On balance, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. The probability that UK-average precipitation for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jja-v1.pdf

Looks like it'll be sort of similar to Summer of 2017.

I've stickied the thread. Things are looking quite mixed as the meteorological summer begins. The TWO forecast for the June, July and August will be online shortly.

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Models seem to be getting worse cool and unsettled sums it up very very poor start to summer.

 

 

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High pressure does seem to want to build in in the day 7 to 9 range on most models this morning so hopefully something to cling to after a poor week but saying that not much rain in the SE and EA. 

 

When is the Model output thread being reopened by the way?

 

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-5 850s over northern Scotland and -1s down as far as East Of England at the end of ECM. 

Looking at ECM the next 10 day's is certainly making up for the prolonged dry period we've had

TWO summer forecast

 

Summer 2019: Warm and possibly quite wet.

 

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a warmer than average summer in most of the UK. On balance there is considered to a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall.

Temperature

The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August is forecast to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average.

Precipitation

Over the three month period precipitation levels are forecast to be between 95% to 115% of the average.

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Great diurnal contrast in some stations: Charlwood in Surrey features in the coldest, and warmest, of today's places:

https://www.eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-extremes/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php?extremes=United%2BK

18.8C range. Reflects the very beginning of summer rather well, I think.

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Most models still want to bring the high pressure back in about  7 days hopefully this can count down to 0. GFS goes hot late on ECM less so but settled.

PS can we have the Model output thread back please.

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Most models still want to bring the high pressure back in about  7 days hopefully this can count down to 0. GFS goes hot late on ECM less so but settled.

PS can we have the Model output thread back please.

Or put another way, the next week looks disappointing in terms of summery weather?

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Most models still want to bring the high pressure back in about  7 days hopefully this can count down to 0. GFS goes hot late on ECM less so but settled.

PS can we have the Model output thread back please.

And into FI, where GFS extends but ECM fears to tread, it looks interestingly both hot and thundery by mid-June.

 

It is indeed a pity that this simple observation re the GFS output has no natural home at the moment.

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And into FI, where GFS extends but ECM fears to tread, it looks interestingly both hot and thundery by mid-June.

 

It is indeed a pity that this simple observation re the GFS output has no natural home at the moment.

 

 the Model output thread which is often the beating heart of TWO has been suspended for so long now is a real shame. 

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And into FI, where GFS extends but ECM fears to tread, it looks interestingly both hot and thundery by mid-June.

 

It is indeed a pity that this simple observation re the GFS output has no natural home at the moment.

No point having a dedicated thread when posts don’t stay dedicated to it!  I can’t read charts but this is now my go to place to read how others interpret the MO.  And, Brian has ‘stickied’ this thread, so I guess that’s the way he sees it too!

 

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Temperatures taking a drop after the last of the heat clears today a period of average or below average 850s then commences with rain never far away maybe something a bit warmer into the 2nd half of June but the 00z is a massive outlier for heat

ECM means look decent but not spectacular from 168h onwards. Much dryer anyway especially for the North which looks like having an especially poor week this week.

 

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Not even mid June and GFS has parts of France at almost 40c

8°C in N Scotland and 31°C in London? I guess it is theoretically possible.

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