Moomin no one knows beyond a couple of weeks at most what summer will bring . John Hammond is not always correct either Let’s wait till we see what the Met Office and other professional bodies have to say .

Moomin no one knows beyond a couple of weeks at most what summer will bring . John Hammond is not always correct either Let’s wait till we see what the Met Office and other professional bodies have to say .

I agree, but talen in isolation it's a very disappointing forecast.

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Very disappointing update from John Hammond in his month ahead. Very cool and unsettled sums it up for much of June and possibly the summer.

I haven't read John Hammond's forecast, but from what you say his forecast seems to be somewhat at odds with those of the MetO from yesterday which talked of increasingly settled weather for much of the Uk as we go further into June.

 

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Wednesday 29 May - Friday 7 June

Through the latter half of next week, there will be changeable weather with a mixture of sunshine and showers likely on most days, although there may be a few periods of longer lasting rain. The best of the drier and sunnier weather is likely to be in the south and east, although there is a chance of windier conditions in the south too. Into the following week, the weather may become more settled with high pressure more likely. This would bring mainly dry conditions, with sunny spells for most, although there may be more in the way of cloud and showers in eastern areas. Given generally low confidence in the forecast at this stage, there may also be some more changeable weather with cloud, wind and rain.

Saturday 8 June - Saturday 22 June

The general trend for this period is currently for a more settled picture across the UK. However, there remains the potential for further areas of low pressure to bring spells of rain or showers at times with some stronger winds. Confidence is low by mid June but the most likely scenario is that overall more settled weather is likely to prevail. Temperatures will start a little below normal, slowly becoming a little warmer.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable; turning breezy and cooler for a time

_________________________________

Wednesday 22 May – Sunday 26 May

Mostly dry and rather warm, then wetter later.

Wednesday and Thursday will continue to see a lot of dry weather for many with spells of sunshine and gentle winds. However, the far north-east of Scotland will stay cloudier, cooler and breezy with rain at times. One or two showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere but most places will escape those. It will be quite warm, particularly in the south and east with highs into the low 20s Celsius for some. On Friday, spells of sunshine are likely to give way to a build-up of cloud for a time with showers spreading south-eastwards across the UK. However, the showers will be hit and miss with some places escaping dry again. This weekend the weather is likely to see a northwest-southeast split in the weather. The north-western half of the UK is likely to become cloudier and windier with outbreaks of rain, these perhaps most widespread on Sunday. Further south-east, it is likely to stay rather warm with sunshine at times but a few showers are likely as the weekend progresses.

Monday 27 May – Sunday 2 June

Breezy and showery at times. Rather cool.

Next week, the jet stream (a ribbon of strong winds in the upper atmosphere) is likely to make a reappearance over the UK, bringing more unsettled conditions from the Atlantic. It is likely to be a breezier and cooler week than this week with showers and occasional bands of rain moving from west to east across the country. Showers and rain are likely to be most frequent in the north and west. Southern and eastern areas of England should have some lengthier drier and brighter interludes of weather but with some useful rain there too. There is just a slight chance that high pressure moves in from the south-west later in the week to bring a lengthier drier and calmer period of weather then. Most likely, though, is for a rather showery, breezy and cool week.

Monday 3 June – Sunday 16 June

Slowly turning drier, calmer and warmer

The first full week of June is expected to see changeable weather conditions with some further bands of rain or showers spreading from the west at times. North-western areas of the UK are favoured to be wettest, including western Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest England. Further south and east, there should be some decent periods of drier weather in-between the showers. By the second week of June, drier and calmer conditions are likely to become more widespread over the UK, thanks to an area of high pressure expanding northwards across Europe. It should turn warmer again with temperatures rising above the seasonal average at times. However, there is a chance that high pressure ends-up further north than expected, which could allow some showers, perhaps thundery, to move into southern areas at times.

Further ahead

Will the weather remain highly changeable from week to week with further swings between relatively calm and dry conditions and cooler, showery weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Much cooler and wetter spell


• More settled by mid-June


• Prolonged heat unlikely

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/24/john-hammond-month-ahead-summer-splash-sizzle/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cooler and wetter finish to May but turning warmer

_________________________________

Saturday 25 May – Sunday 2 June

Wet and cool end to May, warmer in June

Despite a warm start to the weekend, a frontal system will move across the UK both Saturday and Sunday, bringing widespread outbreaks of persistent rain to Scotland, and a cold front will sharp showers for England and Wales on Sunday, and perhaps a rumble of thunder in the Southeast Sunday afternoon. From Monday low pressure will bring in cooler air from the north-northwest, so temperatures will drop down to a bit below average for late May through much of the working week. Monday and Tuesday look to be quite unsettled with plenty of showers and perhaps one or two thunderstorms in the afternoon. There will also be a few dry and bright spells mixed in.

Wednesday is expected to be marginally drier for most, except for some lingering showers in Scotland, and clearer skies will make for a chilly night. From Thursday and through the weekend, the pattern will gradually begin to shift again. A weak frontal system Thursday and Friday will bring some outbreaks of rain for most, but a high building into Central Europe should push this off to the north and replace it with drier and warmer air for southern areas. By Saturday and Sunday, the southern half of the country may see temperatures returning to near average with little rain, but the northern half will likely still be cooler and wetter.

Monday 3 June – Sunday 9 June

Warmer and drier, but some rain in places

As we head into the first full week of June, high pressure is expected to build strongly across Central Europe and into Scandinavia, bringing in warmer tropical air to the UK and pushing much of the rain off to the north. However, Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely still see showers and perhaps longer spells of rain at times as weak fronts pass through along the edge of the high around a low that is expected to linger near Iceland. For much of England and Wales, early June will be marked by mostly sunny and warm afternoons followed by dry, mild nights.

Temperatures are expected to climb a few degrees above average, so highs in the South in the mid-twenties are not out of the question. There is a risk, about 25%, that the high pressure centre will shift a bit too far to the east and end up over Eastern Europe and Russia. In this case, low pressure will be able to move in from the west, leading to a wetter trend. However, this will still likely be a warm pattern as south-westerly winds continue to bring in warmer and more tropical air.

Monday 10 June – Sunday 23 June

Staying warm but turning more unsettled

Moving into the second full week of June, the weather is expected to become a bit more changeable. The high pressure system in Central Europe is expected to continue slowly shifting northwards and eastwards into Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and Russia. Confidence is growing in favour of a blocked pattern, where high pressure to the north will prevent Atlantic weather systems from moving in from the west. However, low pressure is expected to be to the southwest near Spain and France, so the main risk for showery weather will be in the Southwest and West and along the southern coast, with Scotland seeing a bit of a break.

There is a chance that a few of these rain events could bring in some rather heavy and widespread showers or thunderstorms from the continent, but there will also be some longer dry and sunny spells as well making for warm afternoons. With low pressure centres to the south and southwest, warmer Mediterranean air will find into way into the UK, so temperatures will likely stay fairly warm despite the increased risk for showers.

Further ahead

Will the high pressure build in strong for early June, keeping things mostly dry and quite warm, or are we in for a wetter start to summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 30 May - Saturday 8 June

On Thursday and Friday changeable, breezy weather is likely to prevail, with a mixture of showers and some longer spells of rain. However parts of the north will probably stay drier and brighter at first with only isolated showers. Into next weekend and the start of the following week, there is likely to be a change towards more settled conditions from the southwest. This would bring drier conditions with some sunny spells here, however showers or longer spells of rain may continue further north. Through the rest of the period confidence is low, and any more generally settled weather conditions may still be interspersed by occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. Temperatures will start rather cool, but will soon recover to near or a little above normal.

Sunday 9 June - Sunday 23 June

Whilst confidence is low throughout this period, the most probable trend for the middle two weeks of June is for an increasingly settled weather picture across the UK. Whilst this may bring spells of dry and often sunny weather, warmer day time temperatures may occasionally trigger heavy, possibly thundery showers. However there still remains a risk of areas of low pressure bringing longer spells of rain across the UK at times, perhaps with some stronger winds. Temperatures will be near normal or warm overall for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 31 June - Sunday 9 June

Cool in the north and still rather mixed for many on Friday, with cloud and rather humid conditions in central and southern areas will continuing to push northwards, accompanied by occasional rain and drizzle. Into the weekend, pressure is expected to build to the south or southeast of the UK, with any rain then becoming confined to northwestern areas and more in the way of dry weather establishing itself. For many parts into the following week, we should then see a fair amount of dry weather with some sunshine and the potential for temperatures to trend upwards, with increasingly warm conditions likely at times. However, during early June, there are also signals for occasional bouts of more unsettled weather, perhaps in the form of heavy thundery showers.

Monday 10 June - Monday 24 June

Whilst confidence is low throughout this period, the most probable trend for the middle two weeks of June is for a relatively settled weather picture across the UK. Whilst this may bring spells of dry and often sunny weather, warmer day time temperatures may occasionally trigger heavy, possibly thundery showers. However there still remains a risk of areas of low pressure bringing longer spells of rain across the UK at times, perhaps with some stronger winds. Temperatures will be near normal or warm overall for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 1 June - Monday 10 June

Next weekend will be much warmer than recently and locally very warm in the south and east where brightest conditions are likely. It could also be quite humid. Scattered thundery showers may break out, with cooler conditions spreading southeast to most parts by Monday. During next week, mixed conditions are likely across the UK, with a northwest/southeast split. Northern and western areas are likely to see more in the way of changeable possibly windy weather, with generally more settled conditions likely in the south and east. It could be quite warm at times in the southeast where there may be some heavy, thundery showers at times. Confidence in the forecast drops towards the end of next week but there is a possibility of more settled weather generally across the UK.

Tuesday 11 June - Tuesday 25 June

Whilst confidence is low throughout this period, the most probable trend for the middle two weeks of June is for a relatively settled weather picture across the UK. Whilst this may bring spells of dry and often sunny weather, warmer day time temperatures may occasionally trigger heavy, possibly thundery showers. However there still remains a risk of areas of low pressure bringing longer spells of rain across the UK at times, perhaps with some stronger winds. Temperatures will be near normal or warm overall for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

CPF May update

June to August

Temperature summary

For June and June-July-August as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for June-July-August will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 45 and 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For June and June-July-August as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. On balance, wetter-than-average conditions are marginally more likely. The probability that UK-average precipitation for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jja-v1.pdf

Monday 3 June - Wednesday 12 June

Fresher conditions will become established across the UK during next week. Monday will see a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, possibly merging to give some longer spells of rain, which may move east accompanied by some stronger winds. The remainder of the period looks set to stay cool and changeable, with further showers or longer spells of rain, which could be heavy in places, with thunder possible anywhere during this period. Drier and brighter interludes are also likely, with the bulk of the rain probably in the northwest. Temperatures will be mainly below normal, particularly in the northwest, but nearer normal in the east and southeast, where it could be warm at times.

Thursday 13 June - Thursday 27 June

Confidence is generally low through this period. The start of the period is likely to see a continuation of the cool and changeable conditions, with further showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the northwest. By mid-June there are indications of generally drier, more settled conditions being established across the UK. This change will be more marked across northwestern areas, following the changeable start to June. There are likely to be further changeable spells during the period, with a risk of thundery showers, more especially in the south. Temperatures will probably be above normal or warm overall for the time of year, with the warmest conditions most likely in the south and southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 4 June - Thursday 13 June

Tuesday and Wednesday see fresher conditions established across the UK, with most places seeing showers or some longer spells of rain interspersed by bright or sunny spells. The bulk of the rain will probably be in the northwest and here temperatures will be below normal, and it will be windy at times. The best of any sunnier periods will be across the southeast, where it may still become warm at times. These conditions are expected to continue through much of the rest of the period, with further showers or longer spells of rain which could be heavy in places, and with thunder possible anywhere. Towards the middle of the month some drier and more settled conditions may begin to become established across the UK.

Friday 14 June - Friday 28 June

Confidence is generally low through this period but it is likely that drier and more settled conditions will become more widely established across the UK. This change will be most marked across northwestern areas following the changeable start to June. However all parts are still likely to have further changeable spells through the rest of the month with a risk of thundery showers, more especially in the south. Temperatures will probably be above normal or warm overall for the time of year, with the warmest conditions most likely in the south and southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Cool and showery next week


• Drier and warmer mid-June


• Prolonged heat unlikely

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/31/john-hammond-month-ahead-brief-encounters/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 5 June - Friday 14 June

Wednesday should see a continuation of the fresher weather regime across the UK, with showers or some longer spells of rain, as well as some drier, brighter interludes. The bulk of the rain will probably fall in the northwest and here temperatures will be below normal. The best of any sunnier periods will be across the southeast, where it may still become warm at times. It may also become windy in places. These conditions are expected to continue through early June, with further showers or longer spells of rain, which could be heavy in places with thunder possible. Towards the middle of the month some drier and more settled conditions may begin to become established across the UK.

Saturday 15 June - Saturday 29 June

Confidence is generally low, but by mid June there are indications that generally drier and more settled conditions will become established across the UK. This change will be most marked across north and northwestern parts of the UK which are likely to have experienced quite changeable weather through the first part of June. Despite the generally more settled conditions there is still a risk for further changeable spells bringing a risk of thundery outbreaks, these most probable across southern parts. Temperatures will likely be somewhat above average with the warmest conditions likely in the south and southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A cooler start to June, but some warmer air later

_________________________________

Saturday 1 June – Sunday 9 June

Warm weekend, then cooler next week. Wet.

June will start off with a warm but wet weekend as a frontal system sweeps across the country. Much of the southern half of England and Wales will see above average temperatures Saturday, with the Southeast seeing them Sunday as well. Highs are expected to climb into the upper twenties. Further north, however, lingering fronts will keep things wet, cloudy, and with temperatures near or a touch below average. Rain is expected to be heavy at times, especially in the west and for much of Scotland, while western counties of England and Wales turn breezy Sunday night into Monday as the cold front passes.

Moving into the first full week of June, the jet stream is expected to dip south into Spain and France, taking the warmer summer air with it. The working week is expected to be near or a bit below average, with the warmest weather staying in the South. Low pressure nearby will keep things unsettled with scattered sharp and at times thundery showers drifting in from the west or southwest. Tuesday afternoon a low moving in from the southwest will bring some heavier showers to most of the country, lasting through Wednesday. The best of the dry and sunny spells will be in the East, but there will still be some glimpses of sunshine in the West.

Heading into the next weekend, there is increasingly strong signals in the models that a low may develop in France and track quickly north into the North Sea through Saturday and Sunday. This would bring in some quite heavy rain and thunderstorms along with some very warm air to the Southeast and East, but there is still some uncertainty on how far west the rain will get, and it may well stay offshore.

Monday 10 June – Sunday 16 June

Becoming drier and gradually warmer for a time.

During the first week of June high pressure is expected to build strongly in Eastern Europe, keeping their weather settled and warm in a more typical summer pattern. By mid-June, this high is expected to slowly shift northwards into both Scandinavia and the UK, allowing us to experience some of the sun and warmth too. This will be a gradual transition after a rather wet weekend for some, so early in the week expected some showers to linger in the West and South before they are pushed off by the approaching high.

After a cooler start everyone is expected to warm to above average, with the warmest weather being in the eastern half of the country. As the high shifts northwards, Scotland will turn very dry with mostly sunny skies and some very warm days expected. Low pressure to the south will mean that there may be occasional cloudy spells for the southern half of England. Although it looks to be warmth and mostly sunny, the prospect of any significant and sustained hot weather is rather low.

Monday 17 June – Sunday 30 June

Staying warm, but rain expected to return.

High pressure will likely remain a significant weather feature for a significant portion of the third full week in June, however it will begin to slowly retreat eastwards again. A mostly sunny and warm start will therefore gradually transition into a more unsettled and less warm finish for the first month of meteorological summer. Temperatures are still expected to be a bit above average as the low pressure centres will tend to stay to the northwest, dragging in some warmer tropical air from the Azores. The wettest weather in this pattern would be expected in the South and Southwest, with the lingering effects of the high keeping northern areas largely dry and fine.

The main uncertainty for the second half of the month is exactly where the high will end up, and this is largely down to what is happening across the pond in the United States. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal in the southern and eastern half of the US, which will result in a stronger-than-usual jet stream over the Atlantic that may help strengthen the trough of low pressure in Western Europe that will bring us our unsettled weather.

This volatile jet stream will have a major role in the UK's late-June weather, so confidence is still low at this point, although there are not any strong indications of sustained cold anywhere. The main alternative scenario is for the high to shift northwest of the UK towards the end of the month, bringing in some cooler (but not cold) northwesterly winds and bringing wetter and windier weather to the North.

Further ahead

As we near a potentially very wet and stormy weekend in early June we can try and pin down who might want to re-think their outdoor plans or pack an umbrella.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 7 June - Sunday 16 June

Sunny spells along with scattered heavy and possibly thundery showers are expected on Friday, with a chance of some more persistent rain and strong winds affecting the south. This unsettled and largely showery theme continues into the weekend, but with a risk of some longer spells of rain in places. During the following week there are signs that high pressure will begin to build across the country, bringing periods of drier and more settled conditions, although there may still be occasional spells of wet and windy weather, probably in the west and northwest. Temperatures generally close to or a little below average, but with a chance of occasional warm spells in the east and southeast.

Monday 17 June - Monday 1 July

Confidence remains generally low through this period, but during the third week of June it is likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the UK. This will bring some fine and dry days, but there will still be a risk of some periods of more changeable weather, particularly as we approach the start of July. These will bring occasional wet and breezy spells, with a risk of some thundery outbreaks, more especially in the south. Temperatures will likely be around average, but perhaps cooler in the north towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Rare snow hits subtropical parts of Australia

Icy conditions have swept across eastern Australia, bringing snow to areas as far north as subtropical Queensland.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology described it as a "rare" sight, noting the state had not experienced significant snowfall since 2015.

Severe weather warnings have also been issued for a 1,000km (620 miles) stretch of coast which includes Sydney.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48507582

Sunday 9 June - Tuesday 18 June

The unsettled and cool weather looks set to continue on Sunday. There will be showers for many and the likelihood of more persistent rain and strong winds arriving from the southwest to affect many parts later in the day. Into next week and it will probably start cool, changeable and showery, with some longer spells of rain. However, there are indications through the week for overall drier and more settled conditions to become established, most likely across the northwest of the UK. Southern areas are still more likely to see outbreaks of rain or showers, and some stronger winds at times. Temperatures will generally be close to or a little below average at first, perhaps recovering to become warm at times, particularly in the north.

Wednesday 19 June - Wednesday 3 July

Confidence is low through this period, but it is likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern parts are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwestern areas most favoured for warmer than average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Sunday 9 June - Tuesday 18 June

The unsettled and cool weather looks set to continue on Sunday. There will be showers for many and the likelihood of more persistent rain and strong winds arriving from the southwest to affect many parts later in the day. Into next week and it will probably start cool, changeable and showery, with some longer spells of rain. However, there are indications through the week for overall drier and more settled conditions to become established, most likely across the northwest of the UK. Southern areas are still more likely to see outbreaks of rain or showers, and some stronger winds at times. Temperatures will generally be close to or a little below average at first, perhaps recovering to become warm at times, particularly in the north.

Wednesday 19 June - Wednesday 3 July

Confidence is low through this period, but it is likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern parts are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwestern areas most favoured for warmer than average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Have to say, I'm starting to think it may be too optimistic to expect two decent summers on the bounce the way things are heading. This current one did try to fire up a few times but then keep cutting off, like an old diesel locomotive trying to start up with clag blowing out from the top. And now it is looking more and more like not starting up at all with it's engine getting flooded.

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