We've seen tropical storms in the Indian Ocean already but the main focus of this thread is intended to be closer to home in the N Atlantic, but not excluding interesting developments elsewhere.

First named storm of the season, Andrea, has put in an appearance near Bermuda yesterday (20th), 12 days before the official start of the season. It was a weak affair and has probably dissipated by the time you read this.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Subtropical-Storm-Andrea-Weakens-Depression-Jaguar-Roams-South-Atlantic?cm_ven=cat6-widget

NOAA forecast issued Thursday 23rd is for a near-normal season for hurricanes.

"If we take the midpoint of these ranges, NOAA called for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. This is the same as the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes."

The sting is in the "if", which conceals a wide range of possibilities, almost so much as to suggest they're guessing! (30% below normal, 30% above normal, 40% normal)

Anyway, a summary with reasons is here

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/NOAA-Expect-Near-Average-2019-Atlantic-Hurricane-Season?cm_ven=cat6-widget

I must admit, I had a good chuckle upon seeing such non-committal numbers - but to be fair, there's a lack of strong signals to work with; ENSO near neutral to weak positive, the AMO kind of positive but not consistently, Atlantic and Caribbean SST anomalies on the positive side but not massively so for the most part.

Having said that, I'm not convinced that the weakly positive ENSO state, which has proven a bit 'shaky' in recent weeks, can force a significant increase in wind shear across the Atlantic TC development regions. Positive development region SSTs and the weakly positive AMO (which are related) could easily overcome that IMO, and as a result I sense the potential for an above average season, though not necessarily by a lot; maybe 2 or 3 more named storms, including 1 or 2 more hurricanes, than usual.

If this disturbance develops to named status it will be Barry

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

A more extended analysis at

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/2019-Atlantic-Hurricane-Season-Begins-91L-Gulf-Mexico-Threat-Develop?cm_ven=cat6-widget

whose author is hinting at an above average season by showing similarities between the 2004 situation and now, 2004 having been very active.

Most authorities going for near-average, but one UK-based newcomer, TSR, has produced a May forecast for a below average season but with a similar wide spread to that noted above. TSR rather give the game away in a comment to delight cynics of LRF "They [TSR] rate their skill at making these May forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 0% - 2% higher than a "no-skill" forecast"

The Gulf of Mexico disturbance never developed though an area of heavy rain is expected to move along the coast toward New Orleans. So the name 'Barry' remains unused for now.