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May UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 26,142  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 9.9c. Anomaly -0.7c. Provisional 10 16th. Metcheck 9.57c Anomaly -1.83c Netweather 10.5c Anomaly -1.26c Mean Of my 10 10.86c. Difference -1.16c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 26,142  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 10.1c. Anomaly -0.6c. Provisional to 17th. Metcheck 9.68c Anomaly -1.72c Netweather 10.15c. Anomaly -1.16c. Mean of my 10 stations 10.89c. Difference 1.13c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,157
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Latest output suggests temperatures very slightly above average for the rest of the month. Overall the month could be close to 0.5C below the 1981-2010 mean but close to the 1971-2000 mean. Current estimate for the final May CET mean is 11.22C. Hadley is currently about 0.3C above my calculations. |
Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 18,473  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Thank GW! I was wondering what your estimate was. Looks like I’ve gone way too high this month! Too much wishful thinking and memories of last year!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 19,480 Location: N.Y.Moors
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8C (-2.2C) here this morning, the rest of the month looks lack-lustre for warmth at least near the east coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 26,142  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 10.2c. Anomaly -0.5c. Provisional to 18th. Metcheck 9.81c Anomaly -1.60c Netweather 10.26c Anomaly -1.05c. Mean of my 10 11.04c. Difference -0.98c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 5,421   Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh
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Originally Posted by: Caz  Thank GW! I was wondering what your estimate was. Looks like I’ve gone way too high this month! Too much wishful thinking and memories of last year!  I fell into that trap as well because I was looking at the fact that recent months have tended to be warmer in the end, than what they had been expected to be and so, I felt that going for a warm value as my estimate would be a safe bet as a result. However, that has ended up not being the case with this month and because of that, going for that warmer value in order to try to be on the safe side has ended up being quite a big mistake in itself on this occasion. In fact, that on this occasion is the equivalent in recent months of going for a colder than average month overall, only to find that it has actually been much warmer than average in the end. This shows that you just can't win with these things, sometimes. In fact, it's just Sod's Law that the weather all often does the exact opposite of what I actually want it to do which is shown during the winter in particular, when it tends to be much warmer than what I would like it to be. By following that same philosophy, it would just be like the thing if we had now entered the time of year when it is now more likely to be colder than average, now that we are about to go into our summer. Edited by user 19 May 2019 13:06:01(UTC)
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Located in the most boring part of the UK when it comes to our weather where hardly anything ever happens which is even remotely interesting in terms of our weather (other than yet more constant grey skies), and with the more interesting weather usually always occurring elsewhere in the UK apart from here.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 35,252  
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming  Latest output suggests temperatures very slightly above average for the rest of the month. Overall the month could be close to 0.5C below the 1981-2010 mean but close to the 1971-2000 mean. Current estimate for the final May CET mean is 11.22C. Hadley is currently about 0.3C above my calculations. Thanks GW.  So another month where we take around 1C off the anomaly from the preceding month... If that carries on for June we'll be 1C below average.  |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 26,142  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 10.03c. Anomaly -0.4c. Provisional to 19th. Metcheck 9.99c Anomaly -1.42c Netweather 10.4c Anomaly -0.91c Mean of my 10 10.94c. Difference -1.08c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC) Posts: 959 Location: Bolton 160m asl
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming  Latest output suggests temperatures very slightly above average for the rest of the month. Overall the month could be close to 0.5C below the 1981-2010 mean but close to the 1971-2000 mean. Current estimate for the final May CET mean is 11.22C. Hadley is currently about 0.3C above my calculations. I'm hoping it will end at least a little higher than this. There asa some pretty warm conditions on the way for this week which wasn't really forecast a couple of days ago and unlike last week the highest temps will be in the south rather than being 'wasted' in Scotland :) I'm not liking the look of the cool north-weaterlies/northerlies that have been quite consistently progged on the GFS for a few days now, but that's still too far off to be taken too seriously. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 67  Location: Berkhamsted, Herts
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Looking good for my guess for a change then. I figured 3 scorching Mays in a row was too much to ask.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 26,142  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 10.4c. Anomaly -0.3c. Provisional to 20th. Metcheck 10.09c Anomaly -1.32c Netweather 10.56c Anomaly -0.75c Mean Of My 10 11.31c. Difference -0.71c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 26,142  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 10.5c. Anomaly -0.2c. Provisional to 21st. Metcheck 10.20c Anomaly -1.20c Netweather 10.69c Anomaly -0.62c. Mean of my 10 stations 11.02c. Anomaly -1.0c. Edited by user 22 May 2019 17:23:01(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 26,142  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 10.06c. Anomaly -0.2cc. Provisional to 22nd. Metcheck 10.40c Anomaly -1.00c Netweather 10.83c Anomaly -0.48c Man of my 10 stations 11.56c. Difference -0.46c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 5,798 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  Met Office Hadley 10.06c. Anomaly -0.2cc. Provisional to 22nd. Metcheck 10.40c Anomaly -1.00c Netweather 10.83c Anomaly -0.48c Man of my 10 stations 11.56c. Difference -0.46c. 10.6? This late in the month, despite some warmth of late, it looks as if my figure was way too high. Surprising it's so low still though, with our double digit nights and 21C days; but then- we're not in the CET triangle. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. Remember Finlake! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 18,473  Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  10.6? This late in the month, despite some warmth of late, it looks as if my figure was way too high. Surprising it's so low still though, with our double digit nights and 21C days; but then- we're not in the CET triangle. Yesterday I started to post that we’d had 21c in the day but only single figures at night. Then my system shut down so I gave up! However, last night’s low was 11.2c.  We’re not in the CET area either though and like you, I’ve gone way too high with my guess.  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun of the monthly CET competition. Last chance to join in the yearly comp is 2nd March. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 720  
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Originally Posted by: Caz  Yesterday I started to post that we’d had 21c in the day but only single figures at night. Then my system shut down so I gave up! However, last night’s low was 11.2c.  We’re not in the CET area either though and like you, I’ve gone way too high with my guess.  Unfortunately it's looking a lot cooler next week. Although Pershore and Rothamsted look likely to hold up reasonably well, I think Stonyhurst will bring the averages down. Definitely looking like a sub 11.5 month to me now. |
Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 26,142  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 10.8c Anomaly -0.1c. Provisional to 23rd. Metcheck 10.60c Anomaly -0.81c Netweather 11.0c Anomaly -0.31c Mean of my 10 stations 11.68c. Difference -0.34c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/11/2010(UTC) Posts: 6,701  Location: Leeds
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The weather has been cracking recently so I’m also surprised it’s still so low. After the lousy weather earlier in the month it’s been good. |
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,157
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Well this month looks like being cool throughout. No real warm up in the second half. In fact the next two days will see the highest positive temperature anomalies of the month and even those are not very impressive and are mainly due to high minimums. Now looking at potentially a sub 11C month. Current May CET estimate is 10.96C. That would be the coolest May since 2015 and only the fourth time the May CET has been below 11C since 1996. Expect a significant downward adjustment again this month. Hadley is currently running 0.43C above my estimate. Edited by user 24 May 2019 21:17:45(UTC)
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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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