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Offline moomin75  
#521 Posted : 08 May 2019 12:18:30(UTC)
moomin75

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Posts: 4,974

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

 

They actually say "Confidence is very low as we go into early June".

Sorry yes I mean their longer range has changed and that part of it sounds bullish. I daresay it can change back again, and to be fair, they always use the phrase saying confidence is low or very low. In all truth, it is hardly worth reading but I always do. Glutton for punishment. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline David M Porter  
#522 Posted : 08 May 2019 17:38:39(UTC)
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Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post

Sorry yes I mean their longer range has changed and that part of it sounds bullish. I daresay it can change back again, and to be fair, they always use the phrase saying confidence is low or very low. In all truth, it is hardly worth reading but I always do. Glutton for punishment. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

Given how reliable longer-range model output has been in recent months, I would suggest the chances of further changes being made to the MetO's thoughts as we go towards June must be fairly high.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline moomin75  
#523 Posted : 09 May 2019 06:05:02(UTC)
moomin75

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Posts: 4,974

John Hammond is not hopeful for summer and reckons that June will be unsettled according to his latest thoughts.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Gavin D  
#524 Posted : 09 May 2019 12:19:22(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
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Tuesday 14 May - Thursday 23 May

High pressure will dominate the weather across the UK into next week, which will give predominately fine, dry and settled weather with plenty of sunshine and light winds. However, with clear skies and light winds overnight it will turn chilly with the risk of patchy rural frost, also some isolated mist and fog patches. There are signs by the weekend and into the following week that conditions may turn more unsettled across the UK, with spells of rain or showers across all parts. Temperatures are likely to be above normal and locally rather warm in the north and west early in the period, before returning to near normal by the weekend and into the following week.

Friday 24 May - Friday 7 June

The unsettled conditions look set to continue during the first part of the period. Many southern areas most likely to see spells of rain and heavy showers, which will extend into northern areas at times, with stronger winds. Meanwhile, northern parts are more likely to see brighter, showery and cool conditions, away from any organised rain spreading from the south. Temperatures are likely to be on the cool side, especially in the rain. Confidence is very low as we go into early June, but a continuation of a similar pattern looks more probable, with spells of widely settled weather punctuated by spells of unsettled weather. Temperatures are likely to be around average, with increasing likelihood of warm or very warm spells in any settled weather given the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#525 Posted : 10 May 2019 12:15:14(UTC)
Gavin D

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John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Warm spell
  • Prolonged heat unlikely
  • Mixed start to June

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/10/john-hammond-month-ahead-fancy-change/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Offline Gavin D  
#526 Posted : 10 May 2019 12:17:36(UTC)
Gavin D

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Remaining changeable with some fine and dry spells

_________________________________

Wednesday 8 May – Sunday 12 May

Wet and windy at first, but drier this weekend

Wednesday will be an unsettled day as an Atlantic low pressure system moves across the UK. This low will bring showers and longer spells of rain to most parts of the country, the rain accompanied by strong winds in some areas. It will be a cool day, particularly in those parts of the country affected by the most persistent rain. The low pressure system will linger overnight and will only slowly move into the North Sea on Thursday. The unsettled weather will continue, although it should become less windy later on Thursday.

Friday will be a mixed day of sunny spells and showers. Showers could affect any part of the country, and there will be the potential for the odd sharp shower to develop. Saturday should be a dry day for most of the UK, although there will be the chance of a few showers developing, most likely in the east. Saturday night should be dry with light winds, and some mist and fog may develop. High pressure is expected to build in from the south-west on Sunday. As a result, the day should be dry for the bulk of the UK, although a passing frontal system could bring some rain to the north-west of the country during the day or overnight. Temperatures will return to near normal for the time of year.

Monday 13 May – Sunday 19 May

Dry and warm at first, then turning cooler

High pressure should remain close to the UK for much of next week, broadly sitting over the country at first before drifting a little further north or north-west for the second half of the week. This means that the first half of the week will be largely dry with relatively light winds. It should be a little warmer too, with many areas seeing temperatures a degree or more above normal for the time of year. The second half of the week will be more changeable. As high pressure moves away, there will be an increasing chance of cooler north-easterly winds developing, so temperatures are likely to return to near normal in central and eastern parts of the UK.

It should remain relatively dry though, with the high pressure area somewhat limiting the progress of weather systems towards our shores. There is a chance that the high pressure area will move even further north or north-westwards than we expect it to. If this happens, then the chance of cool north to north-easterly winds increases. There would also be the chance of rain moving into southern areas of England and Wales. This alternative scenario has a roughly one in three chance of happening.

Monday 20 May – Sunday 2 June

Remaining changeable despite nearby high pressure

The final third of May and start of June are expected to be rather changeable. High pressure should bring spells of calm and dry weather, but this will be punctuated by spells of unsettled, wet and possibly windy weather as low pressure systems approach the UK. On balance temperatures are expected to be near or a little below normal at first, but lifting above normal in many areas later this month and for the start of June. Rainfall will be near normal in many areas, although there are indications of drier than normal weather in some parts of the country later in the month.

It remains to be seen whether this means that we will have a fine and dry Spring Bank Holiday, and it is worth noting that we have relatively low confidence in the forecast details for the end of May. For example, there is a chance that high pressure remains to the east of the UK, this making it much warmer than normal in most areas but wetter in the west. If the high pressure area sits to the west, then we could see cooler weather in the east and drier weather in the west. The details should become clearer over the coming week or so.

Further ahead

We will take another look at the end of May, including the next Bank Holiday, and the start of June - will dry, warm weather look more or less likely?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#527 Posted : 10 May 2019 12:31:38(UTC)
Gavin D

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Wednesday 15 May - Friday 24 May

After another chilly start, the fine, dry and warm weather will continue on Wednesday, though with more high cloud, particularly over the west. Rain will become increasingly likely in many parts of the UK from Thursday into Friday along with strengthening winds, particularly in the southwest. These winds will lower daytime temperatures below the seasonal average. The weather for next weekend looks likely to continue in the same unsettled vein, with showers or longer spells of rain for many. Daytime temperatures are expected to stay on the cool side in the south and east but frost is not likely here. The warmest and brightest weather is likely in the northwest and these settled conditions may become more widespread during next week.

Saturday 25 May - Saturday 8 June

The weather at the end of May and start of June is likely to include dry and bright spells punctuated by occasional wetter and windier spells. The most prevalent rain and showers will be across southern and central parts, and here winds may be strong at times. It could be rather cool in these unsettled periods and particularly cool near the English east coast. The best of the sunshine and dry weather as well as the highest temperatures will be in the north but prolonged settled and warm conditions will spread further south at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Solar Cycles  
#528 Posted : 10 May 2019 15:27:06(UTC)
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Doesn’t make for pretty reading but one has to rememberer their winter updates to keep things in perspective.
Offline idj20  
#529 Posted : 10 May 2019 15:50:07(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post
Doesn’t make for pretty reading but one has to rememberer their winter updates to keep things in perspective.


Does fly in the face of the latest round of  local newspapers clickbait headlines of "sizzling temperatures until June".     

Offline Solar Cycles  
#530 Posted : 10 May 2019 16:11:41(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Location: Blackburn Lancs

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post



Does fly in the face of the latest round of  local newspapers clickbait headlines of "sizzling temperatures until June".     

πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

Offline Hippydave  
#531 Posted : 10 May 2019 16:54:16(UTC)
Hippydave

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Posts: 1,046
Location: Tunbridge Wells

All sounds pretty average to me. Some rain but equally some dry warm and settled weather too. Useable for most and with enough rain to keep things growing😁
Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Sevenoaks

Offline Gavin D  
#532 Posted : 11 May 2019 09:42:55(UTC)
Gavin D

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Remaining changeable with some fine and dry spells

_________________________________

Saturday 11 May – Sunday 19 May

Largely fine with high pressure

High pressure will become increasingly influential across the UK this weekend, although scattered showers are expected to develop on Saturday, some of which could be heavy during the afternoon with a rumble of thunder possible in the south. It will remain rather chilly in Scotland though, where the showers will be wintry over the hills and mountains. Sunday will be dry and fine with sunny periods for many areas, as high pressure becomes centred over the country, although one or two afternoon showers may develop in southern and eastern Britain. The sunshine may turn rather hazy in Northern Ireland and western Scotland though, with a warm front bringing a few spots of rain to the far north-west and Northern Isles overnight.

High pressure will remain centred just to the east of the UK during the first half of next week, bringing widespread dry, settled weather and sunny periods nationwide. Just a little patchy cloud is likely to develop during the afternoons. The warmest weather is expected in north-west Scotland, where temperatures will rise into the low-20s Celsius, and could reach 24 Celsius by Wednesday, which is likely to be the warmest day of the week. From Thursday onwards, the high will slide slowly north-west, to become centred to the north of Scotland. This should encourage less warm north-easterly winds to move in, keeping it rather cool along eastern coasts of England and Scotland where areas of low cloud could drift onshore at times. By Friday, low pressure will edge towards Britain from the south, bringing more general cloud, outbreaks of rain or showers and somewhat breezier conditions. North-west Scotland is likely to keep the driest and sunniest weather.

Monday 20 May – Sunday 26 May

Slowly turning wetter and more unsettled

Early in the following week, it seems that the high will edge back south across the UK, forcing low pressure south towards central Europe. Although the week may start on an unsettled and breezy note with some showers or outbreaks of rain, it is looking like becoming dry around mid-week, although it may be rather cool with north-easterly winds lingering. Once again, western and north-western Britain may well see the sunniest and warmest weather, while many eastern coasts of England and Scotland will remain chilly with areas of low cloud and one or two showers or spots of rain possible.

Towards the end of the week, the weather looks to become more variable once again, with low pressure areas likely to move closer to the UK from the west or south-west. These will bring bands of rain and occasional showers to western and southern Britain in particular, and the week may end on a rather wet and breezy note here. Rainfall should be lower further north and east, although even these areas may see one or two days with heavy, thundery showers. Temperatures will be around or slightly above average for many areas, with more frequent south or south-easterly winds bringing the highest temperatures to southern and eastern Britain.

Monday 27 May – Sunday 9 June

Higher pressure building more widely over Europe

Towards the end of May, it seems that low pressure areas close to the UK will begin to ease, as we start to see signs of high pressure building north-east from Eastern Europe. Confidence is rather low on exactly when this process will happen and how long it will take, although the most likely outcome is that we will see fronts bringing outbreaks of rain and showers for a few days, before pressure builds nationwide during final days of the month. This will force the typical low pressure track south across southern Europe and the Mediterranean, while it becomes to become drier and calmer across the British Isles through the first part of June. It should become increasingly warm too, with the potential for some very warm weather in the south and south-east.

The southern half of the country will be most at risk of occasional thundery downpours, while Scotland could see essentially dry and calm conditions predominate. However, confidence drops away by this stage, as the jet stream becomes increasingly weak and meandering during the summer months, leading to uncertainty over the potential location of low pressure systems across the North Atlantic, and therefore on how extensive high pressure could be across northern Europe. Indeed, there is a risk that low pressure in the Atlantic continues to dominate our weather into early June, as higher pressure remains well to the east. This could result in some hot plumes of air moving up from the south, but also bring a risk of widespread thunderstorms.

Further ahead

Will central and eastern Britain see any useful rain as we head into June, or will high pressure maintain largely dry weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#533 Posted : 12 May 2019 11:11:34(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 7,316
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Friday 17 May - Sunday 26 May

On Friday we will see a change to cloudier conditions, with showers increasingly likely across the UK, along with strengthening winds. the showers are most likely to be across central and eastern areas. The winds will lower daytime temperatures below the seasonal average, particularly in the south and east. The weather for next weekend looks likely to continue to be unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain for many. Daytime temperatures are expected to stay on the cool side in the south and east though frost is not likely here. The warmest and brightest weather is likely in the northwest and these settled conditions may well become more widespread by the end of this period.

Monday 27 May - Monday 10 June

The weather at the end of May and start of June is likely to include dry and bright periods punctuated by occasional wetter and windier spells. The most prevalent rain and showers will be across southern and central parts, and here winds may be strong at times. It could be rather cool in these unsettled periods and particularly cool near the English east coast. The best of the sunshine and dry weather as well as the highest temperatures will be in the north, especially the northwest, but prolonged settled and warm conditions will spread further south at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#534 Posted : 13 May 2019 10:41:00(UTC)
Gavin D

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Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
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Saturday 18 May - Monday 27 May

Daily detail is uncertain but it is most likely to remain changeable into the weekend, with an increasing risk of showers, perhaps with some longer spells of rain spreading to many parts. The showers could become heavy, with a small risk of thunder. There will also be some drier spells, with the driest, brightest weather most likely to be in west and northwest Scotland, where it will also be warmest. Temperatures elsewhere will be close to or rather below average at first, especially in parts of the east, but they will tend to become a little warmer through next week. The changeable conditions are most likely to continue through to the end of the period, with showers at times, but there will also be some drier and brighter interludes.

Tuesday 28 May - Tuesday 11 June

The weather at the end of May and start of June is likely to include dry and bright periods punctuated by occasional wetter and windier spells. The most prevalent rain and showers will be across southern and central parts, and here the wind may be strong at times. It could be rather cool in these unsettled periods and particularly cool near the English east coast. The best of the sunshine and dry weather, as well as the highest temperatures, will be in the north, especially the northwest. However, these prolonged settled and warm conditions will spread further south at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#535 Posted : 15 May 2019 10:16:43(UTC)
Gavin D

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Sunday 19 May - Thursday 28 May

Changeable weather is likely on Sunday, with a risk of showers, perhaps with some longer spells of rain spreading to many parts. The showers could become heavy, with a small risk of thunder. There will also be some drier spells, most likely to be in central areas before showers develop in the afternoon. Temperatures will be close to or rather below average at first, especially in parts of the east, but they will tend to become a little warmer as we head into next week. The changeable conditions are most likely to continue through to the end of the period, with showers at times, but there will also be some drier and brighter interludes too. The most settled conditions are likely to be across the north.

Wednesday 29 May - Wednesday 12 June

The weather at the end of May and start of June is likely to include dry and bright periods, perhaps punctuated by occasional wetter and windier spells. The most prevalent rain and showers will be across southern and central parts. It could be rather cool in these unsettled periods and particularly cool near the English east coast. The best of the sunshine and dry weather, as well as the highest temperatures, will be in the north, especially the northwest. However, these prolonged settled and warm conditions will spread further south at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#536 Posted : 15 May 2019 13:29:51(UTC)
Gavin D

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Monday 20 May - Friday 29 May

Changeable weather is likely to continue next week, with a risk of showers for most parts and perhaps some longer spells of rain. The showers could become heavy, with a small risk of thunderstorms, especially across the south of the UK. There will also be some drier spells, with these most likely in the north and northwest of Scotland. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above average for the time of year, with the northwest likely to see the best of these. The changeable conditions are most likely to continue through to the end of the period, with showers at times. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes too, particularly across the north and northwest, with these perhaps becoming longer lasting at the end of May.

Thursday 30 May - Thursday 13 June

The weather at the end of May and start of June is likely to include dry and bright periods, perhaps punctuated by occasional wetter and windier spells. The most prevalent rain and showers will be across southern and central parts. It could be rather cool in these unsettled periods and particularly cool near the English east coast. The best of the sunshine and dry weather, as well as the highest temperatures, will be in the north, especially the northwest. However, these more prolonged settled and warm conditions will spread further south at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline Gavin D  
#537 Posted : 16 May 2019 13:01:10(UTC)
Gavin D

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Tuesday 21 May - Saturday 30 May

Early mist and fog patches will clear to sunshine and scattered showers on Tuesday, mainly in central and eastern areas. Sunny spells and showers may continue through the rest of the week, with the best of the dry and sunny weather in the west. However, towards the end of the week more persistent rain and stronger winds may spread into far western areas. Temperatures will be close to or slightly above average for the time of year. The changeable conditions are most likely to continue through to the end of the period, with showers at times. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes too, particularly across the north and northwest, with these perhaps becoming longer lasting at the end of May.

Friday 31 May - Friday 14 June

The weather at the end of May and start of June is likely to include dry and bright periods, perhaps punctuated by occasional wetter and windier spells. The most prevalent rain and showers will be across southern and central parts. It could be rather cool in these unsettled periods and particularly cool near the English east coast. The best of the sunshine and dry weather, as well as the highest temperatures, will be in the north, especially the northwest. However, these more prolonged settled and warm conditions will spread further south at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Offline moomin75  
#538 Posted : 17 May 2019 06:20:09(UTC)
moomin75

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Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,974

The brilliant John Hammond has updated his month ahead forecast and has all but written off any hopes of a really good summer and for the first month is predicting a very changeable and quite unsettled June.

Doesn't surprise me in the least.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Gavin D  
#539 Posted : 17 May 2019 08:43:35(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 7,316
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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

An unsettled end to May, but calmer in June

_________________________________

Wednesday 15 May – Sunday 19 May

High pressure moving away

High pressure has been located close to the UK during the first half of this week, with most parts of the country seeing a good deal of fine and dry weather, and with temperatures above normal for the time of year in many places. The fine weather is expected to continue on Wednesday, with most places seeing a lot of warm sunshine, although the sunshine will turn hazy as high cloud spreads in from the west during the day. Temperatures are expected to rise above 20 Celsius in many areas, approaching the mid-twenties in the warmest areas, likely to be somewhere in Scotland. Wednesday is likely to be the warmest day of the week. On Thursday, the high pressure area will slide northwards, becoming centred close to northern Scandinavia.

At the same time, a low pressure system over mainland Europe will drift northwards, marking the start of a spell of unsettled weather. The first sign of this will be cooler weather on Thursday, thanks to brisk easterly or north-easterly winds. Friday will see rain affecting England and Wales, perhaps affecting some areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland later. The weekend will see showers and rain affecting most parts of the UK at some point. There will be the chance of some heavy and thundery downpours too, most likely in the south. Temperatures will drop back below normal and it will be much cloudier than earlier in the week.

Monday 20 May – Sunday 26 May

Changeable weather for much of the week

The low pressure system which moves towards the UK at the end of this week should start to move away again at the start of next week. High pressure could briefly build back across the UK, but there is a signal for low pressure systems to pass close to or over the UK at times. All of this means that the start of the week is likely to see showers and rain affecting some parts of the country, but the rest of the week will see a mix of dry and bright spells interspersed with occasional showers and rain. Temperatures are likely to be near or above normal across the UK, with it warmest around the middle of the week.

As well as an increase in daytime temperatures, it should be a little warmer at night too and there is no significant risk of overnight frosts. Most places will be a little drier than normal too, although Scotland and Northern Ireland will see rainfall nearer to normal. Winds will be relatively light in most areas. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is for high pressure to extend more strongly across the UK and Ireland around the middle of the week. This would bring dry conditions to all areas, including Scotland and Northern Ireland, but could also bring chillier air in from the north or north-east.

Monday 27 May – Sunday 9 June

Higher pressure building more widely over Europe

The last week of May and first few days of June are likely to see a continuation of the changeable weather. We expect to see low pressure systems move eastwards across the UK towards Scandinavia, interspersed with spells of drier and calmer weather. Temperatures will continue around or a little above normal for the time of year, and it will be wettest in the north and west of the country, with the south and east relatively dry - fairly typical for the time of year. The first full week of June should see a slight change to the pattern. We expect to see high pressure extending across more of Northern Europe, including the UK and Ireland.

This should mean that we will see drier and less windy weather across the whole of the country, with temperatures above normal in most areas too. Confidence is growing that we will see this dry and increasingly warm start to June. However, when looking so far ahead there is always a level of uncertainty. This time, the main alternative scenario is that high pressure becomes centred a little further north than we currently expect it too. If this happens then we could see showers or rain, perhaps thundery, affecting the south of the UK. However, even if high pressure is further north, most of the UK would still be relatively calm and warm.

Further ahead

Will the forecast for June still look as summery, or will the changeable May weather linger a little longer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Offline Gavin D  
#540 Posted : 17 May 2019 08:45:30(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 7,316
Man
United Kingdom

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Showery into next week
  • Cool Holiday Weekend
  • Mixed weather in June

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/05/17/john-hammond-month-ahead-summer-2018-unlikely/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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