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Online KevBrads1  
#1 Posted : 22 December 2018 10:04:42(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,485
Location: Irlam

So what are members weather predictions for 2019? Here's mine, total guesses.

Both January and February colder, drier than average with February the colder and snowier of the two. I am going for a really cold February, maybe the coldest since 1986.

March: the cold relaxes but still some wintriness, average rainfall

April: first spell of "summer warmth" for the year but also a switch around with winter making another appearance with the most notable April snow since 2008 or 2012, rather wet.

May: on the warm side but some wet spells.

June: poorest month of the summer, wettest, coolest, dullest of the three

July: improvement on June with more warmth, sunnier and drier

August: a buck from recent Augusts: dry, warm, sunny. Sadly yet another poor summer for thunderstorms for the area.

September: dry first half but wetter second half, a bit above average.

October: wet and stormy

November: not as wet and stormy as October with a drier spell late month.

December: a pretty anticyclonic month with fog being notable.

 

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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Online richardabdn  
#2 Posted : 22 December 2018 11:08:59(UTC)
richardabdn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,473
Location: Aberdeen

Very little frost and snow during the winter months. 

Awful summer with lots of cloud and rain.

Hideous autumn with stupidly mild nights and nearer average day temperatures resulting in very little tree colour.

Spring the best season.

I just predict the same every year now and it seldom goes far wrong. This year June saw a divergence from the typical 21st Century pattern but, despite a run of brilliant Junes being required to make up for the lack of them between 1997 and 2017, I doubt we will see one in 2019. Despite the sunny June in 2018 May was still sunnier. June hasn't been sunnier than May since 2003 and I predict this astonishing run to continue in 2019.

I would offer almost zero probability of 2019 going down as one of the best ever years for weather and even if it were it wouldn't be enough to save the 2010s from being the lamest decade for weather since modern recording began.

2007 onwards: The Worst Summers since the 1690s?

2007: Dullest June on record, dullest summer since 1944; 170% of average rainfall

2008: Dullest August since 1963; 139% of average rainfall for the season

2009: 121% of average rainfall for the season

2010: Another notably dull spell of June weather; 103% of average rainfall, 87% of average sun for the season

2011: Very cool, dull and wet with a record breaking run of sub-21C days. 169% of average rainfall for the season.

2012: The worst summer since at least 1879. Dullest since 1912 with only 62% of average sun and 171% of average rainfall. Only 0.1C warmer than 1965, the coldest post-war summer

2013: The only decent summer.

2014: Another top 10 dull June and the wettest August since 1963.

2015: The wettest July since 1970. 148% of average rainfall for the season.

2016: 5th wettest June since 1856. 154% of average rainfall for the season and 87% of average sun.

2017: Wettest June on record.

2018: The weekend curse strikes again.

Offline moomin75  
#3 Posted : 22 December 2018 11:18:43(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,055

January. Very cold with lots of snow.

February. Bitterly cold start with sub zero ice days and snow before a considerable change later in the month to above average and rain with flooding.

March. Mild and mainly dry month with some early springlike weather.

April. Cool and wet with plenty of showers.

May. Warm, lots of dry and sunny weather and temps above average.

June. Hot and dry with very little rain.

July. Searingly hot and dry with drought conditions again.

August. Hot and dry first half breaking down to thundery conditions and torrential downpours in final 10 days.

September. Average temps and rainfall.

October. A stormy end to the month with gales. First half quiet and mainly dry.

November. Extremely wet and windy throughout.

December. Wet and windy start followed by drier foggy and frosty weather with a White Christmas (can only hope)!!

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Bolty  
#4 Posted : 22 December 2018 11:34:51(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,325
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

January: A cold and snowy month with winds frequently from a northerly quadrant. Coldest spell of weather since 2010 at some point too. (CET: 1.7)

February: Another colder and snowier than average month, but not to the extend of January. Perhaps quite dull as well. (CET: 2.6)

March: A colder than average month with a few wintry spells, but also very wet and cloudy with frequent southerly-tracking lows. Not very spring-like. (CET: 5.0)

April: A very traditional April with north-westerly winds bringing lots of April showers days. Also a late cold spell and perhaps the first warm and dry spell towards the end of the month. (CET: 8.0)

May: Settling down as high pressure finally starts to move closer to the UK, bringing a fairly decent month. Slightly warmer, drier and sunnier than average. (CET: 12.2)

June: A fairly uninspring June with westerly winds. Slightly wetter and duller than average with no real warm spell of weather. (CET: 13.9)

July: Not bad of a month, with the Azores High having more of an influence on the UK. A decent Spanish plume with widespread thundery activity at some point too. (CET: 17.1)

August: Shite, like it always is. (CET: 15.4)

September: A warm, dry and sunny start to autumn, with another decent Spanish plume at some point, bringing late high temperatures and thunderstorms. (CET: 15.5)

October: A quiet month with high pressure fairly close to the UK. Dry and quite sunny, bringing out a decent autumn show. (CET: 11.0)

November: All settled weather collapses away as the Atlantic fires up. Very wet and stormy with one or two notable gales. Mild too as a result. (CET: 7.7)

December: A typical December with some mild and wet spells, but also some short-lived wintry spells. (CET: 4.6)

Online LeedsLad123  
#5 Posted : 22 December 2018 11:35:56(UTC)
LeedsLad123

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,671
Man
Location: Leeds

I think 2019 will deliver our first hot August since 2003. 16 years seems long enough. The summer as a whole will be like 1995 with a lackluster June evolving into a good July and excellent August.

The rest of the year will be between 10-15C with occasional rain.

Edited by user 22 December 2018 11:38:21(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Online Brian Gaze  
#6 Posted : 22 December 2018 11:36:22(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 45,989

I'll leave the rest of the year to others but I suspect In January we will be using these 2 words: B------- ----. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Online Bugglesgate  
#7 Posted : 22 December 2018 11:44:38(UTC)
Bugglesgate

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 09/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 896

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

I'll leave the rest of the year to others but I suspect In January we will be using these 2 words: B------- ----. 

 

Bloody Warm ? 

Edited by user 22 December 2018 11:45:48(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chris

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

Offline marco 79  
#8 Posted : 22 December 2018 12:11:25(UTC)
marco 79

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,165
Man
United Kingdom

Jan: Cold - Mostly dry, some snow showers in east, sharp frosts...mild start and end
Feb: Mild start, turning colder 2nd week...heaviest snow spell of the winter (South esp)...turning milder south...still cold in north with snow
Mar: Cold across all areas...wintry at times...Milder and settled towards 3rd week but drier
Apr: Changeable ...mild start ...then turning noticeably cooler with some late season frosts
May : Mostly dry fairly warm
Jun: Humid and thundery...fresher but drier month end
Jul: Mostly dry and warm but no significant heatwave
Aug: Cool wet mostly...drier further North
Sept: Settled and warm
Oct: Dry and warm start...unsettled from mid month
Nov: Dry settled..but Mild
Dec: Turning wet and stormy...some servere gales...Game changer just after Xmas with some snow and frost esp north...

Now all I need to do is put the lotto on for tonight!!

Edited by user 22 December 2018 12:13:11(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Offline ballamar  
#9 Posted : 22 December 2018 13:49:21(UTC)
ballamar

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,143
Location: Essex

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

I'll leave the rest of the year to others but I suspect In January we will be using these 2 words: B------- ----. 

 

bartlett high or blizzard snow

Offline Frank H  
#10 Posted : 23 December 2018 14:13:40(UTC)
Frank H

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 118
Location: Wrightington, Wigan

 

Jan/Feb Models tease with northerlies and beasts but weather mixed with just a couple of cold snaps. Forgettable.

Mar Pleasant warmish springlike month (except in Aberdeen)

In event of no deal brexit, rest of year will be dark with continuous rain.

Otherwise read on.

Apr Dry theme continues but cooler. Changeable later in month.

May Unsettled, disappointing month

Jun/Jul Unsettled start but becoming drier and much warmer. Hot at times in south.

Even Aberdeen has some decent days but not at weekends.

Daily Express forecasts record heat for August/September

Aug wet, flooding in places.

Sep Unsettled theme continues

Oct Much drier. Warm spell towards mid month

Nov Unsettled, mild, windy at times

Dec Mild unsettled start, becoming much colder after mid month

Bookies going odds on a white Christmas

NetWeather server crashes

Jan 1 2020 Darren S wins CET competition for record third time. Heated debate whether he should be allowed to keep the non existant trophy.

Merry Xmas all

 

Online Bertwhistle  
#11 Posted : 24 December 2018 05:47:39(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 5,600
Location: Central Southern England

January: SSW event fails to deliver. A mid month cold-ish snap but mild overall.

February: some good frosts but snow restricted to Aberdeen.

March: nondescript. Showers and a few mild, bright days.

April: windy.

May: Frequent warm days and some thunderstorms.

June: wash-out.

July: Warm and mostly dry.

August: Really good first half, but normalising after 20th- like 1995 but not quite as hot.

September: Heatwave at start then unsettled.

October: Warm and dry.

November: One of the driest on record; HP elongated to the W so frequent frosts second half.

December: White Boxing Day everywhere except SW England, NW Scotland and SW Wales.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Remember Finlake!

Offline Chunky Pea  
#12 Posted : 24 December 2018 07:05:56(UTC)
Chunky Pea

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2013(UTC)
Posts: 13,426
Man
Ireland
Location: East Galway, Ireland 35 m asl

January: Stormy and cool, especially 2nd half.

February: Very wet.

March. Stormy, especially around the 29th.

April: Unusually cold 

May: Wet at first, dryer but still on the cool side later.

June: Warm, humid and westerly month.

July. Late heatwave

August: Hot at first. Stormy and wet later.

September. Warm and settled. 

October. Mild and very wet.

November. Very wet with cold end.

December: Colder and snowier than usual. 

"There are nights when the wolves fall silent and only the moon howls"

--George Carlin.

Online johncs2016  
#13 Posted : 28 December 2018 18:23:55(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,109
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

I didn't really have much of a chance to add my tuppence worth here when this thread was at its most active just before Christmas as I was on my Christmas break in the Scottish Borders at that time. However, I will say what I think will happen in the year ahead. Just like the last time though, this will just be a complete guess on my part, although I am hoping that I can still do better at getting these predictions right than I did last year.

Anyway, my predictions for this upcoming final year of the 2010's decade are as follows:

JANUARY:

What happens during the latter part of this month in particular, will depend largely on what the tropospheric effects are (if any) from the currently ongoing SSW event. Until then, the month will start off with the same Barlett High in place which we have just now, and this will be continuing to feed in really mild air from the Canaries at that time although there might be some patchy frost at times if the high pressure drifts far enough north.

As we go further into January, this area of high pressure will drift away to our east with low pressure setting up to west. This will result in the north and west of the country becoming more unsettled but still mild with SE England having the best chance of being drier with patchy frost. In the end, northern blocking will develop, but we will end up being on the mild side of that so whilst the eastern seaboard of the USA gets the benefit from that with some really cold temperatures, we will remain in a mild to very mild SW air mass with most of the rain again, being in the NW quarter of the UK.

FEBRUARY:

Northern blocking remains in situ which continues to brace the eastern seaboard of America with some severe winter weather, but our mild borefest goes on with the Barlett High remaining in place over the UK. In the end, that will result in this winter going down as one of the mildest on record here in the UK and whilst most of the rain continues to fall acoss NW Britain, SEPA who had already stated in earlier reports that what happens during this winter could be critical in terms of how groundwater levels in the east of Scotland recover from last summers droughts, now become really concerned about the fact that this much needed winter rainfall in the east of Scotland just hasn't happened and so in response to that, their water scarcity warning level is raised from its current low level, to moderate or high.

MARCH:

The Barlett High drifts towards Scandinavia and starts to feed in more of an easterly wind, but these easterlies are originating from the Mediterranean and are not all that cold. Nevertheless, there is a lot of low cloud being brought onto the east coast by those winds and the first east coast haar of the spring, which keeps the east coast a bit cooler than further inland.

APRIL:

Another very dry month here in Scotland, but wetter in the south as high pressure to the north continues to feed in easterly winds. This results in the west of Scotland getting some pleasant weather whilst the east coast is plagued by more low cloud and haar, along with cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, low pressure is trying to push up from the south and that brings some rain at times, along with some April showers across the south of the UK.

MAY:

Easterly winds continue to bring low cloud and haar onto the east coast for a while along with cooler temperatures, whilst the west of Scotland enjoys some decent warm and sunny weather with the south of England remaining more unsettled. Eventually though, the blocking high to our north slips a bit further south into Europe, but this starts to feed in much warmer southerly winds with SE England seeing its first Spanish plume of the season.

JUNE:

High pressure builds right across the whole of the UK for a while, and brings a real taste of summer. However, this results in SEPA now being so concerned about the effects from this in addition to the knock-on effects up until then from the previous year, that widespread hose-pipe bans are now introduced across Edinburgh and the rest of SE Scotland as a result.

JULY:

Our area of high pressure slowly slips away, and this results in a succession of thundery troughs being stuck across the east of the UK. This results in widespread thunderstorms with Edinburgh recording its wettest July on record which is enough for all hose-pipe bans to be immediately lifted once again.

AUGUST:

The Azores High ridges in close enough to the south of England to dry things out there, but Atlantic weather systems moving in from the west around the top of that high pressure continue to keep Scotland quite a lot wetter and more unsettled.

SEPTEMBER:

Scotland gets the sort of weather which it should have been getting during August as high pressure builds in across the UK. However, that area of high pressure then slips away by the end of the month, resulting in the weather becoming more unsettled once again.

OCTOBER:

Unsettled and often stormy, with frequent low pressure systems bringing plenty of rain to most parts of the UK.

NOVEMBER:

The unsettled theme continues, but with a few colder snaps in between due to the odd northerly incursion on the back end of these weather systems as they clear away to our east. This in turn is enough for showers to turn increasingly wintry, especially over the hills at first with snow down to lower levels by the end of month.

DECEMBER:

The 2010s decade ends on a changeable note with mild, wet and windy weather at times interspersed with some cold zonality which results in showers on a returning polar maritime air mass turning to sleet of snow at times, even down to lower levels on the odd occasion.

 

Edited by user 28 December 2018 18:31:25(UTC)  | Reason: typos

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS

EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)

Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)

Altitude: 57m above mean sea level

EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)

Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)

Altitude: 33m above mean sea level

ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)

Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)

Altitude: 26m above mean sea level

Offline The Beast from the East  
#14 Posted : 29 December 2018 00:19:41(UTC)
The Beast from the East

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 28,224
Man
Location: Purley, Surrey

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

I'll leave the rest of the year to others but I suspect In January we will be using these 2 words: B------- ----. 

Bartlett Brexit

Worst case scenario

At least all the homeless wont freeze to death, they can starve instead

 

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Online KevBrads1  
#15 Posted : 16 May 2019 09:23:26(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,485
Location: Irlam

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

So what are members weather predictions for 2019? Here's mine, total guesses.

Both January and February colder, drier than average with February the colder and snowier of the two. I am going for a really cold February, maybe the coldest since 1986.

March: the cold relaxes but still some wintriness, average rainfall

April: first spell of "summer warmth" for the year but also a switch around with winter making another appearance with the most notable April snow since 2008 or 2012, rather wet.

May: on the warm side but some wet spells.

 

Hmmmm undecided

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Online KevBrads1  
#16 Posted : 11 June 2019 16:55:25(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,485
Location: Irlam

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 Go to Quoted Post

 

June: poorest month of the summer, wettest, coolest, dullest of the three

July: improvement on June with more warmth, sunnier and drier

August: a buck from recent Augusts: dry, warm, sunny. Sadly yet another poor summer for thunderstorms for the area.

 

 

Starting to hope this comes true....except the thunderstorm part

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Online richardabdn  
#17 Posted : 11 June 2019 17:15:10(UTC)
richardabdn

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,473
Location: Aberdeen

Originally Posted by: richardabdn Go to Quoted Post

Very little frost and snow during the winter months. 

Awful summer with lots of cloud and rain.

Hideous autumn with stupidly mild nights and nearer average day temperatures resulting in very little tree colour.

Spring the best season.

I just predict the same every year now and it seldom goes far wrong. This year June saw a divergence from the typical 21st Century pattern but, despite a run of brilliant Junes being required to make up for the lack of them between 1997 and 2017, I doubt we will see one in 2019. Despite the sunny June in 2018 May was still sunnier. June hasn't been sunnier than May since 2003 and I predict this astonishing run to continue in 2019.

I would offer almost zero probability of 2019 going down as one of the best ever years for weather and even if it were it wouldn't be enough to save the 2010s from being the lamest decade for weather since modern recording began.

My prediction is looking spot on so far. Despite the mediocre spring and cool, dull, wet May it still looks highly likely that June will be even worse.

May's poor sun total of 166.5 hours could well out to be the highest of the year. All it would take would be a below average total for June, which is almost guaranteed these days, and no better than average for July and August.

In post-war times, only 1993 had worse than that for the sunniest month

2007 onwards: The Worst Summers since the 1690s?

2007: Dullest June on record, dullest summer since 1944; 170% of average rainfall

2008: Dullest August since 1963; 139% of average rainfall for the season

2009: 121% of average rainfall for the season

2010: Another notably dull spell of June weather; 103% of average rainfall, 87% of average sun for the season

2011: Very cool, dull and wet with a record breaking run of sub-21C days. 169% of average rainfall for the season.

2012: The worst summer since at least 1879. Dullest since 1912 with only 62% of average sun and 171% of average rainfall. Only 0.1C warmer than 1965, the coldest post-war summer

2013: The only decent summer.

2014: Another top 10 dull June and the wettest August since 1963.

2015: The wettest July since 1970. 148% of average rainfall for the season.

2016: 5th wettest June since 1856. 154% of average rainfall for the season and 87% of average sun.

2017: Wettest June on record.

2018: The weekend curse strikes again.

Online johncs2016  
#18 Posted : 11 June 2019 17:41:38(UTC)
johncs2016

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 5,109
Man
United Kingdom
Location: West Pilton, Edinburgh

Last year, I predicted a poor summer and got that one wrong.

For this year, I went for a decent summer with a continuation of last year's droughts which would therefore result in widespread hosepipe bans across the south of England in particular, as a result.

Clearly, it looks as though I've got that one wrong as this summer so far, has started off on a dismal and in places, very wet note in those very parts of the world where I was predicting that hosepipe bans would come into force.

However, I did correctly predict the very dry winter which we had in between all of that. I also correctly predicted the dry autumn which we had leading up to that.

I also predicted a dry spring for here this year whereas we actually ended up with a wetter than average spring overall in this part of the world. However, the UK in general actually did have a drier than average spring so that when you add all of that together, I can't really say that I've done too badly with my predictions since it is only really the summers which are letting them down.

 

Edited by user 11 June 2019 17:42:54(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

MY THREE LOCAL WEATHER STATIONS

EDINBURGH GOGARBANK (more up to date sunshine totals come from here)

Latitude: 55° 55' 40.8'' N (DMS) or 55.928° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 34.8'' W (DMS) or -3.343° (Dec)

Altitude: 57m above mean sea level

EDINBURGH AIRPORT (added as an additional backup)

Latitude: 55° 56' 53.88'' N (DMS) or 55.9483° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 20' 40.92'' W (DMS) or -3.447° (Dec)

Altitude: 33m above mean sea level

ROYAL BOTANIC GARDENS, EDINBURGH (the closest station to where I live)

Latitude: 55° 58' 1.2'' N (DMS) or 55.967° (Dec)

Longitude: 3° 13' 1.2'' W (DMS) or -3.2217° (Dec)

Altitude: 26m above mean sea level

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