Here is the list of predictions for May

Link to full sized table

Latest update on the May CET. Very cold over the next few days. The mean will be down in the mid 8's. 

Temperatures don't get back above average until Monday 13th. It is likely to be at least the 21st before we get up to the 1981-2010 mean. The current forecast temperatures for the next couple of nights that are baked into these numbers do not I think fully take into account how cold it will be tonight and again tomorrow night. So it does look like a very chilly first half of May.

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From what I am seeing seeing here, my rather warm estimate for this month is already starting to look like being in a lot of trouble unless it rather unexpectedly warms up very soon.

Having said that though, this is the weather after all and regardless of what the models tell us, anything can end up happening, so I'm not giving up hope just yet.

Metcheck         9.72c.     Anomaly    -2.68c

Netweather      9.36c.     Anomaly    -1.95c

Mean of my 10 stations  9.24c.  Difference  -2.78c.

On Netweather CET it was mentioned Hadley not giving out the updates anymore. Do not know if this is correct.

Emailed Met Office. Ellie a Weather desk advisor Met Office Exeter said it would update the CET soon.

Thanks ART. 

I don't for one moment believe they would ever stop making the CET data publicly available. Equally I don't take much notice of what is said over on NW.

Emailed Met Office. Ellie a Weather desk advisor Met Office Exeter said it would update the CET soon.

From what I am seeing seeing here, my rather warm estimate for this month is already starting to look like being in a lot of trouble unless it rather unexpectedly warms up very soon.

Having said that though, this is the weather after all and regardless of what the models tell us, anything can end up happening, so I'm not giving up hope just yet.

Emailed Met Office. Ellie a Weather desk advisor Met Office Exeter said it would update the CET soon.

A bold stroke Art- thanks for doing it. 

No Met Office Update......

Metcheck           8.54c.       Anomaly     -2.87c.

Netweather        8.93c.       Anomaly     -2.38c.

mean of my 10 stations   9.13c. Difference -2.89c.   

 

A bold stroke Art- thanks for doing it. 

Ditto!

Cheers Art 

From the estimated estimate of starting CET today (...), the latest two GFS runs (06z and 12z) have the CET wallowing around in the low 8s until 13th before it finally gets its act together and starts climbing with some gusto.

The 06z's generally warm pattern thereafter takes the CET up to very nearly the 11s by 22nd (so close to the LTA), while the 12z's warm to very warm pattern sends it soaring into the high 11s - a big enough climb that I suspect I'd prove to be too low with the final CET if things turned out that way.

It's been a striking turnaround after a couple of days of runs choosing to keep a cool to near-average flow from the NE to E as the predominant pattern. Still time for a swing back the other way but the trend warmer has been within expectations given the very powerful convectively coupled Kelvin wave propagating from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.

That CCKW has in fact exceeded what I anticipated, and looks to produce some suitably extreme amplification of the mid-high latitude weather patterns next week. Part of this will be a Spanish plume of intensity rarely seen in mid-May;

Not easy to resolve from the shading but I think some spots are hitting the mid-high 30s in Spain and Portugal there. More typical of a heatwave in mid-July than mid-May! A striking contrast to the east as well.

No Met Office Update. 

Metcheck         8.54c.      Anomaly     -2.90c.

Netweather      8.8c.        Anomaly     -2.51c

My 10 stations  9.04c.      Difference   -2.98c.             

Cheers SC!  I need something like that given I guessed 12.5c.  I just hope it doesn’t swing back again at month end!   

 

Current estimate of the CET for the bank holiday Monday is 7.3C. So not the coldest but not far off. It will depend on how cold it is tomorrow night. Could well be nearer 7C in which case it could be the third coldest in the list above.

The CET for tomorrow (Sunday) is expected to be no higher than 6.5C and I suspect it will in fact be nearer 6C as I expect it to be very cold tonight.

So it will certainly be one of the coldest May Day bank holidays on record.

My estimate of the CET for the bank holiday Monday is 7.23C so equal third coldest May Day bank holiday. The CET for Sunday was just 6.31C.

Met office Hadley have Updated.     APRIL    9.1c    Anomaly     1.2c.

May     8.8c.   Anomaly   -1.1c. Provisional to 6th.

Worth the wait....

HADOBS Met Office          8.8c.      Anomaly      -1.1c.  Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                          8.64c     Anomaly      -2.76c

Netweather                       8.92c     Anomaly      -2.39c 

man of my 10 stations 9.51c.  Difference  -2.51c. 

HADOBS Met Office          8.8c.      Anomaly      -1.1c.  Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                          8.64c     Anomaly      -2.76c

Netweather                       8.92c     Anomaly      -2.39c 

man of my 10 stations 9.51c.  Difference  -2.51c. 

Not surprised its below normal. First week here has been foul.

 

Not surprised its below normal. First week here has been foul.

 

Yep. A really big warm-up is needed very soon if we are to get anywhere close to my official prediction for this month on this forum.

Of course, I don't actually live in the CET area but even here, today has given us a very good example of why the CET is running so low during this month at the moment as the temperature here in Edinburgh hasn't got above 8°C during today which even for here in Scotland, is absolutely abysmal for this time of the year.