This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during May, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
April has been a mixed month with a mix of cold and warm weather. Overall it will be above average due to the very warm Easter period.
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for May should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.
The deadline for predictions this month is 2359 on Wednesday evening (1 May).
Now on to some data for May:
Historic CET summary for May
1971-2000 11.3C (30 years)
1981-2010 11.7C (30 years)
1999-2018 12.1C (last 20 years)
The last two Mays have been very warm with above 13C CET returns. Those were the first years the May CET was above 13C since 2008. We had a number of cool Mays in 2010, 2013 and 2015 with below 11C returns.
Here is a chart of the May CET for all years since 1961:
Direct link to larger version of the chart
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Latest model output 850hPa temperatures - 12z 28 April
GFS (12z) - generally close to average except for the Bank Holiday period which is cold
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=
GEM (00z) - very different and with more scatter than the GFS. No sign of the colder Bank Holiday and turns quite warm after that
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gem&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=
Multi Op (00z) - fairly good agreement except for GEM which goes off on one with its mild solution. GFS 0z was also milder than the other models
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=OP&bw=
The ECM ENS T2m temperatures for De Bilt show the cold bank holiday but remember this is for Holland and we are right on the periphery of a cold plunge into central and eastern Europe at the end of this week which is more likely to show up in De Bilt. Longer term there is a lot of scatter with the option of something very warm but also with a number of runs staying cool or close to average.
http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
Not yet published - probably out tomorrow.
Temperature analogues
Last month's analogue signal was mixed but with the probability of a warmer than average month being greater than a colder than average month. In the end the month was very mixed but finished above average.
We are still tracking the CET for 2017 very closely this year. All four months have been very similar so far. That year had a warm May.
Looking at other years since 1950 where the CET for Feb to April is a good match for this year we have 2014, 2002, 1997, 1961.
1961, 1997 and 2002 saw a CET around average in May. 2014 was a bit warmer at 12.2C.
Looking at years with a March and April CET similar to this year we can also add 2005, 2003, 2002, 1999, 1992, 1959. The first three of these are close to or slightly above average. 1999, 1992 and 1959 are warmer.
So no signs of anything significantly below average in May from the analogues. The main cluster is close to or just above average (which also contains most of the best matches). A few years are quite warm.
The analogues therefore point to something between about 11.6C and 12.1C as being the most likely scenario with a low probability of a warmer month closer to 13C.
First look at May temperature tracker
Huge uncertainty in the output at the moment. So very low confidence on the current trends. The bank holiday weekend could be very warm or it could be quite cold. Latest output is going for the colder option but that is by no means certain. Even so generally the output suggests the first 12 days of May could be quite warm despite the possibility of a few colder days.
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Edited by moderator
28 June 2019 13:27:43
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Reason: Not specified