BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Extended fine and settled weather next few weeks
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Wednesday 20 March—Sunday 24 March
Becoming colder and more unsettled
Much of the UK will see mild and settled weather until Friday, with a cloudy warm sector lingering across the country at times. This will bring rather cloudy conditions for many today, and there will be some patchy rain or drizzle across Scotland and Northern Ireland. The best of the sunshine will be across central and eastern Britain, where it will be very mild for the time of year. Clear spells with occasional mist or fog patches across England and Wales tonight, but remaining breezier with outbreaks of rain in Scotland.
High pressure will linger just to the south of the UK on Thursday, maintaining largely dry conditions with sunny spells, although there could be a few spots of drizzle in the west. A slow-moving front will bring persistent rain at times to north-west Scotland, which will continue overnight, but it will remain very mild for all. A deep area of low pressure is expected to move to the north-west of Scotland on Friday, bringing strong winds to northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, while a cold front will push a band of increasingly patchy rain south-east across central and northern Britain. The best of the sunshine will be in southern and central areas. It will become colder in the north overnight, with hail, sleet and snow showers for western Scotland.
Winds will ease for all on Friday, with settled and dry weather for England and Wales, although the sunshine will be rather hazy. Further blustery wintry showers will affect Scotland, perhaps with the odd rumble of thunder. A cold night will follow with a frost in places. It will remain windy in the north on Sunday, with further showers or longer spells of rain, but dry and breezy with sunny spells in the south.
Monday 25 March—Sunday 31 March
High pressure dominating
Through next week, high pressure will dominate the weather across much of the country. Monday may start off on a chilly note across eastern Britain, perhaps with the odd shower, although high pressure will soon build in from the west, giving a dry and settled end to the day, and winds will become light. Some mist or fog may form overnight, and it will be rather chilly locally. These largely dry and settled conditions will be maintained on Tuesday and Wednesday, thanks to high pressure located right on top of the country. Although the nights may be cold with some fog patches, the days will be fine with a good deal of sunshine.
After midweek, high pressure may slip a little to the south or south-west of the UK, allowing fronts to bring cloud and occasional bands of rain to north-western areas; particularly across Scotland and Northern Ireland. It will become increasingly breezy here too, although winds will remain light elsewhere. It will remain on the mild side for all areas though, with south-westerly flows predominating. By the end of the week, the main alternative pattern is for low pressure to extend its grip more widely across the UK from the north-west, leading to windier and wetter conditions, particularly in the north.
Monday 1 April—Sunday 14 April
Fine, warm and largely dry
By the first week of April, it looks like high pressure will build more strongly north across the UK and indeed much of northern Europe. The widespread extent of high pressure will prevent Atlantic lows areas from making their traditional approach towards the UK, forcing them to skirt closer to Iceland. Therefore, there will be a lot of dry, calm weather across central and southern Britain in particular, while weak fronts could bring patchy rain to northern Britain at times, perhaps lingering close to north-west Scotland where the rain could be persistent. An isolated weak front could even bring a few spots of rain to England and Wales, interrupting the otherwise dry, fine and settled weather here.
With winds often from the south or south-west, temperatures will be above average for all, particularly across England and Wales where the strengthening sunshine will boost temperatures further.
As we look towards the middle of April, there is still a consistent signal for high pressure to remain quite extensive across and close to the UK. This should be more widespread across the UK and north-east Atlantic than early in the month, and so we expect it to become drier and calmer more widely, including across northern Britain. There is a risk of occasional short northerly airflows bringing colder bursts of air to the north and east of the country, but temperatures should still remain above average for all areas, with winds remaining light and a good deal of sunshine during the days. There is, however, some uncertainty regarding the exact orientation and location of the high, with a slight risk that low pressure becomes more influential towards the UK, as the main high pressure areas shifts further east towards Scandinavia.
Next Update
How far into April can we expect to see the fine and settled conditions last?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook