Amazing if this March were to finish in the top 10 as it certainly hasn’t felt warm to me! I suppose it’s because of that incredible February warm spell making March feel colder. 

The first few days of the month continued the late February warmth and from then on we've really only had the occasional cooler day. Lots of wind and cloud has also ensured that night temperatures stay up.  

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Met Office Hadley            7.5c       Anomaly     2.2c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                        7.31c     Anomaly     1.15c

Netweather                     8.03c     Anomaly     1.74c

My Ten Stations               8.16c     Anomaly     1.81c.    

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Met Office  Hadley         7.4c     Anomaly    2.1c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                      7.31c    Anomaly    1.15c

Netweather                  7.95c     Anomaly    1.66c

Hexam                         6.3c      Anomaly     0.9c

Forest town Mansfield    7.5c      Anomaly     1.92c

Linford                         8.8c      Anomaly      2.74c

Treviskey Redruth         9.0c      Anomaly      1.34c

Mean of my 10             8.17c     Anomaly      1.82c.     

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The positioning and orientation of the high next week is skipping about all over the place between the models and runs, with big impacts on temps.

Currently anything between 7.25 and 8.50 seems very plausible for the final CET!

Such a huge spread so far into the month - it really goes to show how futile it would be to go around issuing exact monthly mean temp predictions on a professional basis. Which is why I steer clear of such an approach .

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Met Office Hadley        7.5c.      Anomaly       2.2c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                     7.44c     Anomaly       1.28c

Netweather                  8.03c     Anomaly       1.74c

Mean of my 10             8.52c     Difference     1.97c.   

 

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My latest CET estimate for the whole of March is coming out at 8.09C. So still on track to just about finish above 8C.

It's incredible how deceiving the stats can be sometimes. I no way would I say that this March has felt "warm", apart from today. I suppose it's the lack of cold nights which has been responsible for this, rather than daytime maxima.

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It's incredible how deceiving the stats can be sometimes. I no way would I say that this March has felt "warm", apart from today. I suppose it's the lack of cold nights which has been responsible for this, rather than daytime maxima.

If we keep getting those warm days though such as what we had today, I can only see one way for the CET to go and that is up since it doesn't look as there will be too many cold nights to come during the rest of this month if there are any at all.

 

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Met Office Hadley         7.6c.    Anomaly    2.3c    Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                      7.59c   Anomaly    1.43c.

Netweather                   8.17c   Anomaly     1.88c

Mean of my 10 stations  8.49c   Anomaly     2.14c.               

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My latest CET estimate for the whole of March is coming out at 8.09C. So still on track to just about finish above 8C.

If that is the case, then based on that, your third accurate prediction in a row, and the sudden drop marting and I will take this month, you should be leaps-ahead leader after the first quarter!

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Met Office Hadley         7.8c      Anomaly      2.4c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      7.73c    Anomaly      1.57c

Netweather                   8.3c      Anomaly      2.01c

My mean of 10 stations  8.61c    Anomaly      2.2c.  

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Looking like the warmth will win out. Something close to 8c looks likely. Global Warming doing well!😉

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Looking like the warmth will win out. Something close to 8c looks likely. Global Warming doing well!😉

In more ways than one :)

I went for 7.71C but that looks like being pitched a little low now. At this stage to get that we would need a good northerly blast for a few days to drag it back or at least a retrogressing high. Looking at the GFS we have an Arctic plunge on.....April 1st! You couldn't make it up, it's no joke that's for sure :)

 

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Met Office Hadley         7.9c.      Anomaly      2.6c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                      7.81c     Anomaly      1.65c

Netweather                   8.4c       Anomaly      2.11c

Mean of my 10 stations  8.63c.    Anomaly      2.28c.       

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Met Office Hadley         7.9c.      Anomaly     2.5c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                      7.77c     Anomaly     1.61c

Netweather                   8.41c     Anomaly     2.12c

Mean of my 10 stations  8.6c       Anomaly     2.25c.  

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Met office Hadley             7.9c       Anomaly      2.4c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                         7.77c      Anomaly      1.62c

Netweather                      8.38c      Anomaly      2.09c

Mean of my 10 stations   8.33c.    Anomaly     1.98c.

   

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Met Office Hadley         7.9c.     Anomaly      2.4c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                      7.72c    Anomaly      1.56c

Netweather                   8.35c    Anomaly      2.06c

Mean of my 10 stations   8.36c    Anomaly      2.01c.  

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Met Office Hadley         7.8c.         Anomaly       2.4c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                      7.76c        Anomaly       1.60c

Netweather                   8.29c        Anomaly       2.0c

Canvey Island                8.9c         Anomaly       2.0c

Clevedon Weather          9.2c         Anomaly       1.99c

Mount Sorrel                  8.1c         Anomaly       2.04c

Mean of my 10 stations  7.9c     Anomaly    2.01c.         

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Met Office Hadley         7.9c.      Anomaly       2.4c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                      7.76c     Anomaly       1.60c

Netweather                   8.3c       Anomaly       2.61c

Darwen                         8.0c       Anomaly        1.79c

Hexham                        7.0c       Anomaly         1.6c

Forest Town Mansfield    8.3c      Anomaly          2.72c 

Peasedown St John      7.0c       Anomaly         1.07c

Mean of my 10 stations  8.21c    Anomaly       1.86c.               

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I've been without my usual internet for a week but have kept an eye on things via mobile connections where I can.

Woah - is that an auto-save feature I see flashing up every time I pause...? 

So, those colder northerly incursions... they've done the 'typical thing' and been put back to the early stages of next month instead, allowing the March CET to finish near 8*C by the looks of things.

Could still have been cooler though for the CET zone; down here there's been a run of sub-zero minimums but it's been less cold for central parts due to more of a breeze. Seems good luck is not something I have much of a relationship these days! The things I've been through regarding my internet...! Crazy.

Anyway. April's looking like another tricky month to pin down, with some unusually strong blocking scenarios (even for the time of year) on the cards, driving exceptional warmth into the Arctic and a lot of cold air out of it, but this pattern greatly contradicting the typical weak El Nino response of warm continental flows occasionally destabilised by Atlantic troughs.

Which is to say, a sudden large flip in temps is probable at some point (see the final frames of the GFS 12z for an idea of how this may look), but how far into the month this happens is anyone's guess. Consequences for the CET are massive.

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