IMO, a cold February is still very much on the table. Granted that the forecasts were wide of the mark for January but crititisms of the METO have been founded on models at 168hrs+ which we all know are on extremely dodgy ground after the SSW. Surely the outlook is only predictable at this range in strong zonal setups. Also I hasten to add, the Met bulletins in the last week have included the very crafty caveat: 'and IF very cold conditions were to occur there may be snow at times' or words to that effect.'
It is easier to see mild coming than it is cold and the Met guys are subject to this truth to some degree as well us amateurs are. As the models stand at this time I think the main issue is that the threat is from the east rather than from the north east or north as inititually stated.