A weak cold front will bring the first non trivial snow to the UK tonight. Looks like its going to affect mostly central and eastern areas. Could give 1-2cm but I'd expect a dusting generally. This is also likely to affect E Anglia and SE England tomorrow morning. A further risk of snow for E Yorkshire, Lincs and E Anglia could give isolated but more significant snow totals in the 2-5cm range when beefy showers return during the early afternoon. These should fizzle during the evening.  Then the weekend offers the possibility of some light patchy sleet or snow for many parts of the UK. Again minimal or small accumulations but it may well be cold enough for a dusting at night.

 

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Don't forget to put actual snow reports in the snow reports thread 👍

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From past events, they don’t usually show up until a couple Of days out hopefully we’ll see a good distribution of snow accross the uk this coming week!

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I have 3 weather apps on my phone. They’re all showing precipitation from this evening till mid morning tomorrow.  The standard app says snow, the BBC app says sleet and the Met Office app says rain.  

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I have 3 weather apps on my phone. They’re all showing precipitation from this evening till mid morning tomorrow.  The standard app says snow, the BBC app says sleet and the Met Office app says rain.  

IMO the Met Office not-a-forecast is more likely to be most accurate as it's not just based on one model, and has some human input.  I believe the BBC (Meteogroup) one also has some human input.   I think most others are just based on the latest GFS run and should therefore be treated as nothing more than pictorial representation of that model.  

 

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There needs to be a sharp fall in predicted temps before any snow falls over the Chilterns.  Both BBC & Meto show rain this weekend and again next Tuesday with only a fall from 5 to 4 degrees in temp.

Nothing special here and probably need to await for the Easterly - if it develops 

AROME going for an entirely snow event (E and over the pennines). I'd be inclined to trust it. 

 

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AROME going for an entirely snow event (E and over the pennines). I'd be inclined to trust it. 

 

Is that for tonight Q?  

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IMO the Met Office not-a-forecast is more likely to be most accurate as it's not just based on one model, and has some human input.  I believe the BBC (Meteogroup) one also has some human input.   I think most others are just based on the latest GFS run and should therefore be treated as nothing more than pictorial representation of that model.  

Yes Andy, the Met Office one tends to be better at forecasting two or three days out and sticks to its guns but the standard app is quite accurate on the day and it updates more often.  The BBC one also updates regularly but tends to nowcast.  We’ll see later which is closest in this instance!  I think it will be rain to sleet!   

Edit - standard app now says sleet and Met O says rain to snow!  

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Yes Andy, the Met Office one tends to be better at forecasting two or three days out and sticks to its guns but the standard app is quite accurate on the day and it updates more often.  The BBC one also updates regularly but tends to nowcast.  We’ll see later which is closest in this instance!  I think it will be rain to sleet!   

Edit - standard app now says sleet and Met O says rain to snow!  

Nowt but rain showing for me.  And after that, apart from some rain early on Tues, dry for the foreseeable future!    But this is desert!

Hopefully catch some snow on the Brecon Beacons at the weekend though

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I have 3 weather apps on my phone. They’re all showing precipitation from this evening till mid morning tomorrow.  The standard app says snow, the BBC app says sleet and the Met Office app says rain.  

Met Office app quoted rain for me but it has just started snowing

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Met Office app quoted rain for me but it has just started snowing

To be fair, all the apps are pretty good and never far off the mark at close range.  At least all mine are consistent in forecasting precipitation of some kind and we know snow is the hardest to forecast, so I can’t knock them.  I just want them all to say snow!  

Glad you got snow though!  

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This looks like it could be quite serious. Still marginal but less than it was this morning.

Potentially alot of snow (or rain) on this.

 

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Lots of interest within the semi reliable range well worthy of discussion as regards Monday/ Tuesday's cold front clearance which presents possibilities not only at height in the north west of the UK, but also as it clears SE theres a fair chance that it will turn to snow, so a 50/50 chance of a dusting on the Chilterns and Downs come Tuesday morning:

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I also note the Arpege almost brings in a cold NEly to the south east corner by Thursday.  This week looks of great interest to me.

I think there is quite a risk of wintery showers in Kent, perhaps some snow over the Downs during the working week. I must say I much prefer the short range stuff than trawling anything 144+.

 

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and this:

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MetO raw output being quite bullish bringing heavy snow down to low levels in NW England by Tuesday lunchtime. 

Interesting. 

Heres the Euro4 for 12z Tuesday. Glasgow looks best placed at this point. 

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/20/basis12/ukuk/weas/19012212_2012.gi/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/20/basis12/ukuk/weas/19012212_2012.gif

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Chance of a dusting mid week for many.

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Chance of a dusting mid week for many.

That’s just the GFS being wildly over the top, it seems to think that 5 minutes of snow after 5mm of rain will magically convert it to 2cm of lying snow!

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Even in thr best northwesterly winds we struggle with any lying snow away from hills. From the latest charts it looks like showers wont have any oomph about them to cool surface temps and so i suspect it will be more a case of reporting how wintry the showers are rather than volume they put down... if ypubare lucky to get one. Then as quick as the front noves through we have things settling down almost within a few hours.

What a shame.

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