Gooner
06 January 2019 20:31:34

Originally Posted by: roger63 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf


Am surprised that this encouraging METO forecast for Jan-March has not recieved more attention.



Thought Id bring this back to the top 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Stolen Snowman
06 January 2019 21:52:52

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Thought Id bring this back to the top 



Always a conundrum with these sorts of things when we all know it’s impossible to forecast the weather with any certainty beyond about 5 days. This of course could mean wintery weather is just around the corner but the models have yet to pick up on it....


Then again.... it might not.


Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.
Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent
Gavin D
07 January 2019 10:44:24

The UK and Ireland is one of the warmest parts of Europe this morning


temp_eur2.thumb.png.638230e1546f2c64a478998d32607ae5.png

Saint Snow
07 January 2019 12:33:17

I'm not moaning (else I'd have used that thread!) but after temps dipped to -3c one night last week, I expected there to be further frosty nights/mornings. But it's not developed that way, and I don't think it's got lower than +2c since. We even had drizzle this morning.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
KevBrads1
13 January 2019 08:54:54

Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


2018-19: 11 (up to 12th Jan)


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
johncs2016
13 January 2019 09:40:07

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


2018-19: 11 (up to 12th Jan)


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262



Using the same formula as above with an amendment so that I am dealing with the number of official air frosts instead of the number of days where the minimum temperature is at or below 0°C, the Edinburgh Index for the winter of 2018/19 as at midnight going into Sunday 13 January 2019 was 15.4 at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 14.9 at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
howham
13 January 2019 18:11:53
Possibly some.snow here overnight. Eyes to lampposts...
Gavin D
15 January 2019 09:50:22

The met office have issued a level 2 cold weather alert


Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness


Issued at:


There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather between 0600 on Friday 18 Jan and 0600 on Monday 21 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


 Colder conditions becoming established across the country from Wednesday as a cold front clears southeast, with strong northwesterly winds following. Wintry showers spreading south overnight Wednesday and into Thursday giving a slight snow cover in places, mainly across northern hills, with some icy patches also likely. Winds then fall light overnight Thursday into Friday, with clear spells allowing a widespread frost to develop across the country. Atlantic fronts then try to push in from the west during Friday and Saturday with outbreaks of rain, preceded by some sleet and hill snow, likely to affect SW England and perhaps parts of central southern England, the West Midlands, and northwest England. However, further east remaining cold and dry.


Sunday should see largely dry but cold conditions across most areas, but a further band of rain, sleet or snow may edge into the far northwest later. There is currently significant uncertainty regarding the eastward extent of the precipitation on Friday and Saturday, but any snowfall accumulations look to be small and mostly confined to hills at the present time. There is higher confidence that many northern, central and eastern areas will remain largely dry but cold through the weekend. Trigger criteria are expected to be met for temperatures for northern, central, and eastern regions, with southern areas likely to remain above Alert thresholds for this period. This Alert may be updated later in the week when more certainty emerges in the precipitation detail for the weekend.


An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Gavin D
18 January 2019 09:16:03

Amber level 3 cold weather alert issued for North East & North West England.


Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action


Issued at: 08:54 on Fri 18 Jan 2019


There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather between 0600 on Friday 18 Jan and 0900 on Wednesday 23 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


Cold for many, and remaining sufficiently cold across the northeast and northwest for a level 3 alert, with overnight frosts expected. There is also the potential for some hill snow, mainly Friday and Sunday, and perhaps briefly to lower levels in the north. However temperatures expected to be slightly less cold than recent days in the south, reducing chances of thresholds being reached here. Despite this, further cold weather is expected to return to these parts during the coming week. There is also the potential for a band of heavy rain and snow to move southeastwards across the country overnight Monday and early Tuesday. However confidence in the timing, and the extent of any snowfall remains very low. This alert is likely to be updated Monday morning.


An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert


 


London, South East & South West England remain Green which means no cold weather alert is in operation here


 

Gavin D
21 January 2019 08:58:58

Updated cold weather alert


Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action


Issued at: 08:41 on Mon 21 Jan 2019


There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather, icy conditions and mostly hill snow between 0900 on Monday 21 Jan and 0900 on Friday 25 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


This alert extends the duration of the active alert, issued on Friday 18 January and supersedes it. All regional alert levels remain unchanged, with the exception of Southeast England which is now upgraded from Level 1 (No Alert) to Level 2 (Yellow). The main hazards in this alert period are likely to be widespread ice on Monday night into Tuesday morning, as well as the ongoing low temperatures. While some snow is expected - including sporadic slight falls to low levels - amounts are only likely to be appreciable on high ground, mainly in the northwest. There is some uncertainty in the timing of relieving less cold conditions from the west late this working week.


The present most likely scenario is for a less cold blip of one or two days' duration from Friday. This should come before a resumption of widespread cold to end the coming weekend and probably beyond.


An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Gavin D
27 January 2019 09:12:43

Gavin D
27 January 2019 10:27:06

Solar Cycles
27 January 2019 10:33:31

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 




NetWeathers servers will be in meltdown mode now. 😂😂😂 


 


 

KevBrads1
28 January 2019 08:24:31

Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


2018-19: 22 (up to 27th Jan)


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Gavin D
28 January 2019 09:05:07

Level 3 cold weather alert issued for north-east & north-west England + Yorkshire and the Humber


Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action


Issued at: 08:54 on Mon 28 Jan 2019


There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Monday 28 Jan and 0900 on Friday 01 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


Cold weather is expected to continue to affect the country through the coming week with generally northwesterly winds, with the risk highest across the north of the country. Monday and much of Tuesday will be dry and cold for much of the country away from coasts where some showers are likely which could turn wintry and where icy patches are most likely.


A band of rain crossing eastwards across the country later Tuesday and into Wednesday will turn to snow at times to all levels with the some of the greatest amounts across the higher ground of the south and southeast of the UK. The cold conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week, with bands of rain turning to snow through Thursday and into Friday, although confidence in timing and amounts beyond Wednesday is low at this stage.


An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

KevBrads1
03 February 2019 10:44:30


 


Looks like accuweather is not having that a brilliant winter forecast again. Yes it has been mild at times but that graphic is just bizarre. How can you get a scenario like that unless a main low pressure sits to the west of Ireland and there are low pressures moving up the eastern flank of the parent low bringing gales to western areas that then swing out back into the Atlantic? Note the parts of Scotland under dry spells.


"The second half of the season — including January and February — is predicted to be even busier, with Northern Ireland, southwestern Scotland, northwestern England and Wales most likely to be hit."   Well January has been relatively quiet. 


"Unlike last year, prolonged dry periods are not anticipated so regions which are coping with drought conditions, such as southern England, may recover." Actually January has been drier than average comfortably, driest January since 2006 by the looks of it and add on dry week of last December. 


IMO, I think their winter forecasts are pretty poor overall.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
jhall
03 February 2019 21:50:07

Accuweather also provide the daily forecasts in my morning paper, and those are pretty atrocious too.


Cranleigh, Surrey
KevBrads1
04 February 2019 06:25:26

Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2011-12: 47


2018-19: 48 (up to 3rd Feb)


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Gray-Wolf
04 February 2019 11:51:41

Sadly , since my Oct punt we received a paper bringing into doubt any connection that the MetO saw between low solar and Northern blocking in the Atlantic.


The paper found any 'correlation' to be a 'mirage' ( their word).


As such i am surprised at the amount of HP interference we have already encountered this winter so far?


Not to say I'm bothered as our river is still mid 'flood alleviation' works reducing its channel and so increasing the likelihood for flooding over any big rains we might encounter!


 


 


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VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Gavin D
15 February 2019 13:24:24
It's the warmest day of the year so far with 16.3c in Rhyl
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