Shropshire
16 January 2019 19:32:37

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


 


I was thinking along the lines of this.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1987&maand=1&dag=10&h=0&nmaps=24


 


 



Would be great but no LP/Atlantic energy on the 87 chart - the energy has to go somewhere and it would likely disrupt across the UK with the High too far North and rain for most. Anyway thankfully it's T240 and not T24.


 


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fairweather
16 January 2019 19:32:37

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


 


I was thinking along the lines of this.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1987&maand=1&dag=10&h=0&nmaps=24


 


 



Then click on the 850hPa one and you'll see what the difference is!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Shropshire
16 January 2019 19:34:24

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


Then click on the 850hPa one and you'll see what the difference is!



That's not the point, what APS shows is possible if the Atlantic system isn't there !


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Ally Pally Snowman
16 January 2019 19:35:48

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


Would be great but no LP/Atlantic energy on the 87 chart - the energy has to go somewhere and it would likely disrupt across the UK with the High too far North and rain for most. Anyway thankfully it's T240 and T24.


 



 


It's not a perfect 87 match but that low looks like its going under the block then it would drag the truly frigid easterlies our way. As you say all academic but very good output all round tonight 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
jhall
16 January 2019 19:36:12

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


I've got it here for you - only good for the very far North I'm afraid - 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010205.gif


 



As T+268 would be the 27th January, a very quick search has come up with this chart:



Cranleigh, Surrey
SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2019 19:49:03

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


People have been pointing this out on NW - we seem to be going through a spell of poor overnight runs followed by markedly different 12z runs which lifts the mood until the morning !


 



Yep! Kinda dreading the morning output now after the evening treats 😁


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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
16 January 2019 19:53:49

By the way.


It is looking interesting at the moment for this Week and next week - cold and mixed precipitation with NW winds turning NE next week. This Thursday and Friday Northerly winds which turn light later- bring cold air.


Blustery wintry showers are quite possible next 24hrs and Tuesday- Wednesday next week Jan. 22-23. 


The Satellite View in Canada and USA show clear skies in South SE Central and NE USA.  North Atlantic currently has some rain bearing clouds Central and North Atlantic Sea running NE from the SW.


West SW USA and North USA west side has rain and heavy snow weather- Some areas of Low Pressure for them.  


Low Pressure in open Sea of NW Atlantic is acting well defined Low Pressure System that is on the right trajectory.


12z UKMO, ECMWF and GFS runs quite good.


Next Week that East NE USA Low is first going to move across to the South and SE off Newfoundland then it the models predict to send it to SW and South of Greenland and across it as well. High Pressure in Central North Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday is a good northern blocking high and the models are backing it up.


Cold NE winds in NW Europe and the UK by Thursday 24th looks great for giving us cold and frosty conditions maybe a few wintry showers as well.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Arcus
16 January 2019 19:57:18

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


 


It's not a perfect 87 match but that low looks like its going under the block then it would drag the truly frigid easterlies our way. As you say all academic but very good output all round tonight 



 I think Ian knows that (or at least he should).


Anyway, the 12z ENS don't give much away with the Op pretty close to the mean. What's noticeable is the huge variation in the SD spread that's opening up in the latter stages. 



Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Russwirral
16 January 2019 20:06:56

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


 I think Ian knows that (or at least he should).


Anyway, the 12z ENS don't give much away with the Op pretty close to the mean. What's noticeable is the huge variation in the SD spread that's opening up in the latter stages. 




 


Huge Spread?  I dont think ive ever seen tighter ensembles TBH.


Arcus
16 January 2019 20:12:35

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


 


Huge Spread?  I dont think ive ever seen tighter ensembles TBH.



a) You need to remember the shading shows SD from mean, not full ensembles


b) Compared to recent runs, the opening out is very noticeable in the latter stages


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
16 January 2019 20:19:57

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


 I think Ian knows that (or at least he should).


Anyway, the 12z ENS don't give much away with the Op pretty close to the mean. What's noticeable is the huge variation in the SD spread that's opening up in the latter stages. 




That spread is evident in the 2m temperatures. Quite a range in the latter stages of the run. 


https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Gusty
16 January 2019 20:22:55

Very restrained in here tonight. Very wise considering the shocker of the 0z earlier today. 


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JACKO4EVER
16 January 2019 20:24:34
Some options later on in the run but very encouraging this evening for cold weather fans.
Maunder Minimum
16 January 2019 20:29:01
With the glaring exception of ICON, the models have largely redeemed themselves this evening. Will the 0z's give us a breakfast of cold, lumpy porridge in the morning again? Hopefully the model output will start to stabilise soon on a wintry outlook.
New world order coming.
soperman
16 January 2019 20:30:52

This suite is better for coldies but expect wild swings in the NWP over the next 48-72 hours as the Jet is likely to be significantly impacted by the winter storm in the US.


The extent and length of any cold spell is far from nailed on let alone any significant snowfall.


Eyes upstream through to Saturday / Sunday may be more revealing than the NWP 

Whether Idle
16 January 2019 20:32:35

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Very restrained in here tonight. Very wise considering the shocker of the 0z earlier today. 



Perhaps people are keeping their powder dry for the coming days, while output is highly volatile, and whilst the heart goes with JMA the head goes with GEM. We need to get within something like 120 hours before any slight confidence of the outcome post the low sinking SSE can be held.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
PFCSCOTTY
16 January 2019 20:46:47

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Very restrained in here tonight. Very wise considering the shocker of the 0z earlier today. 



 


yes who knows we may get a frost before the winters out! 

Whether Idle
16 January 2019 20:50:49

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 


 


 


yes who knows we may get a frost before the winters out! 



Indeed.  Halfway through and almost no frost and not a flake IMBY, about as bad as it gets, yet it seems completely normalised now.  


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
16 January 2019 20:52:40

Originally Posted by: jhall 


 


As T+268 would be the 27th January, a very quick search has come up with this chart:




Remind me to post some photos of 27 Jan 1996, some of the best snowfall I’ve experienced in the UK, when I was living in Sheffield. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
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jhall
16 January 2019 20:57:46

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Remind me to post some photos of 27 Jan 1996, some of the best snowfall I’ve experienced in the UK, when I was living in Sheffield. 



Ah yes, I see that the chart from that is a goodie. Other good 27th Januaries were 1954 and - unsurprisingly the coldest looking of all - 1947.


Cranleigh, Surrey
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