http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPNH00_240_1.png 

Amazing chart the NH profile looks like cold and snow could be a feature for a while!!

I have to say that the colder theme is there today (with some less cold interludes). However, looking across the models and ensemble data available so far, the specific synoptics and details are anyone’s guess.

There are some tantalising options but also some underwhelming ones.

As for timing, it is blowing a hoodie here currently and t850s were over 5°C a few hours ago, by tonight the first (very) brief encounter with colder air with clip here, although it may not be too noticeable apart from feeling cold. In other words the timing is on track.

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Interesting how the GFS op wants to persistently push that low through the country at 120 hours introducing +850 temps for a time. Really is out on its own and therefore there has to be only a very a low chance it is correct. Does have some support within its ensembles though.

ECM completely different at 240 hours to last night but then why would it not be at that time scale. The former discrepency with the GFS and other models fascinates me more.

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Interesting how the GFS op wants to persistently push that low through the country at 120 hours introducing +850 temps for a time. Really is out on its own and therefore there has to be only a very a low chance it is correct. Does have some support within its ensembles though.

ECM completely different at 240 hours to last night but then why would it not be at that time scale. The former discrepency with the GFS and other models fascinates me more.

Agree, but it’s another option on the table however unlikely.

I was a bit worried when I saw the OP. Thankfully the ENS from the GFS are the best set yet!

The tropospherical response from the SSW appears to finally be manifesting across the NWP this morning in the form of an initial cold col set up. Signals for a significant cold spell have definitely edged up today.

I instantly thought of Steve Murr when I saw the ECM 240 this morning 

The ever westward retrogressing NW/SE jet alignment continues ensuring we eventually end up on the cold side of the jet. We then await a significant height rise in the Greenland / Iceland area circa 23- 26th ish.

With atlantic influences cut off it will be interesting to see how cold it gets and how quickly.

London moves towards the freezer at the end..its not often we can say that !

 

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I was a bit worried when I saw the OP. Thankfully the ENS from the GFS are the best set yet!

I think we all remember 2013 when the GFS batted on with the wrong solution to something like T84, in a similar situation. Hopefully we will see corrections on forthcoming OP runs.

 

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I think we all remember 2013 when the GFS batted on with the wrong solution to something like T84, in a similar situation. Hopefully we will see corrections on forthcoming OP runs.

 

Fingers crossed. If we take the ECM as truth we're 4 days away now from the start of the cold spell! 

 

I think we all remember 2013 when the GFS batted on with the wrong solution to something like T84, in a similar situation. Hopefully we will see corrections on forthcoming OP runs.

 

Good point, it really didn’t want to go with the slider scenario did it! Let’s hope it’s a more straightforward route this time......I doubt it.

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www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres

 

This is always a good indicator of what GEFS is up to

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Fingers crossed. If we take the ECM as truth we're 4 days away now from the start of the cold spell! 

Yes indeedy.... a far cry from the “Jam tomorrow” comments some have been posting without even checking the output. 

The main thing that caught my eye this morning is the significant westward ‘correction’ of the jet profile meaning we are not influenced by the dreaded Azores HP & cut off from further northerly or continental airflow. 

I'm in Scotland until Friday and then a whole week in the Lakes. Could be an interesting place to be looking at the models 😲

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Best set of EC ENS to date from Wed onwards. Still some spread Fri/Sat re: the troublesome low but EC still not buying in to with the GFS on its own. Not much snow in the forecast but longer term some potent E or NE'lies in the clusters as Greenland blocking develops. Interesting

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) January 13, 2019

Decent GFS 6z very different to the ECM but still snowy .  Odd 264h+  with mild 850s easterly.  

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GFS is a right dogs dinner at the moment. It serves up a warm easterly in FI

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Scandi HP building around 300hours but brings in some warm uppers? 

 

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GFS is a right dogs dinner at the moment. It serves up a warm easterly in FI

Yes! Considering the recent and prolonged bitter freeze across many parts of Europe this is quite a mild easterly? - Esp in terms of uppers?

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Decent GFS 6z very different to the ECM but still snowy .  Odd 264h+  with mild 850s easterly.  

At around T+240, there are southerly winds over Italy and up into central Europe, on the other side from the UK of the Low that is then centred over Holland. It must have brought some warmer air northwards, that is then brought in our direction as the wind turns round to an easterly.

But yes, a very decent run overall. And though it's a very long way out, I like the High that is developing over Scandinavia by T+384.

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Hopefully ecm on the money this morning certainly in line with its eps. Not quite the cold snowy charts most are hoping to see although you could say its a work in progress and with stronger heights could turn into something really special.
Not fully on board until we see cross model agreement but certainly moving in the direction hoped for with very low 850's coming into play as we go into last week of January.

ECM @ 240 - People keep banging on about how good it is? - This doesn't look that wintry to me?

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