You're either being sarcastic or just misguided as I know you're more knowledgeable/pragmatic than this. Hoping it's the former 

Just shared two bottles of wine with a friend - waiting for the cold is like Waiting for Godot. 

This winter says no for the UK. Sorry, but it increasingly looks as though the recent SSW is not going to deliver anything of note for us as usual for the UK mid-winter and Conus is goi going to get the cold and snow which we crave. Sorry guys!

One of the more eloquent 'Winter is over' posts of the modern era...

I've been surprised at some of the unbridled optimism on here for the last couple of days. I see GFS is now the model of choice 

There hasn't been any consistently great charts to justify that. However what isn't in doubt (ignore ECM outlier!) is that a colder spell looms but what it will bring is still pure conjecture. Based on the grounds the main thrust was never really due for another 8-10 days it's hardly surprising there is still a lot of uncertainty. If there isn't a tight set of ensembles at -7C or below by next weekend though I might be getting nervous we will be pinning our hopes on a late February extreme on last years scale.

We would hardly be looking at late February by next weekend, which will be the 19th of January. Even if the GFS was to show a clear signal at 16 days out - which is unlikely - that would still only just take us into February. And in any case the GFS and ECM ensembles are already showing a pretty clear signal of -5C 850 mb temperatures from about 8 days out, which is not that far from the -7 that you say you want - especially when you bear in mind the point that Retron has made that the low pressure forecast to be over the UK in that timeframe means than that 850 mb level will be substantially closer to the surface than it would usually be. That would pretty much make -5 equivalent to the -7 that you'd like to see.

Although the ensemble mean chart at T+240 is of limited value it does suggest that the Op was out on a limb.

One encouraging feature of that mean chart is that it shows that pesky High to our SW as being a lot further away than on the operational run as well as being about 10 mb less intense.

Exactly the spread is the witness

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=2&archive=0

 

..... too much uncertainty to be certain of that (IMHO)

 

One encouraging feature of that mean chart is that it shows that pesky High to our SW as being a lot further away than on the operational run as well as being about 10 mb less intense.

Yes, exactly.  Without going through the 50 permutations I'd guess that very few will have the high pressure in the same place as the Op.

The polar vortex being split almost into three chunks is also notable.

Taken from NW Peter

ECM ensembles watch

Looking at members with 850Hpa of minus 5 or below for large parts of the UK:

D11 36 yes, 15 no

D13 36 yes, 15 no (though different runs)

D15 36 yes, 15 no (again, some different runs)

Still remarkable consistency for cold for such a long way out

Edit: forgot to mention, probably half of the runs which failed to show minus 5 uppers at the precise time had very cold air very close by, either leaving or about to come in. 

 

Yes, exactly.  Without going through the 50 permutations I'd guess that very few will have the high pressure in the same place as the Op.

The polar vortex being split almost into three chunks is also notable.

 

One encouraging feature of that mean chart is that it shows that pesky High to our SW as being a lot further away than on the operational run as well as being about 10 mb less intense.

ECM mean is encouragingly similar to GFSP which forces the AH to take a much needed holiday SW of the Azores - let's hope it's a long holiday.

 

Just shared two bottles of wine with a friend - waiting for the cold is like Waiting for Godot. 

I always find my friend Jackie D and Irn Bru, is much better for a spot of positive model watching.😉😛

Mentions of similarities with Jan 2013 on here over past few days, that would suit me fine (IMBY). Whatever the outcome, these are very interesting Synoptics, which are not our usual winter fare. I get the feeling the vortex almost wants to dive down right over us, if only, but you never know. 

Taken from NW Peter

ECM ensembles watch

Looking at members with 850Hpa of minus 5 or below for large parts of the UK:

D11 36 yes, 15 no

D13 36 yes, 15 no (though different runs)

D15 36 yes, 15 no (again, some different runs)

Still remarkable consistency for cold for such a long way out

Edit: forgot to mention, probably half of the runs which failed to show minus 5 uppers at the precise time had very cold air very close by, either leaving or about to come in. 

 

 

Thanks, that's good to know.  At that range 70/30 is a decent signal, particularly if part of the 30% is just about timing.

This winter says no for the UK. Sorry, but it increasingly looks as though the recent SSW is not going to deliver anything of note for us as usual for the UK mid-winter and Conus is goi going to get the cold and snow which we crave. Sorry guys!

Your drunk …………….clearly Hic! 

 

Just shared two bottles of wine with a friend - waiting for the cold is like Waiting for Godot. 

Tuesday's coming Richard, there's no getting away from it 

Well the GFS 18z pub run is a bit of a damp squib. Follows the ECM 12z op to t240 to a degree with the Azores High exerting itself, but the run closes with no immediate route to prolonged cold. 

One run with all the usual caveats but this is beginning to look like jam tomorrow. Let's wait on the GFS P and the ensembles to see if the op has support.

18z Op run ends the cold spell before it's even started?

Here with a slice of you know what?

Well the GFS 18z pub run is a bit of a damp squib. Follows the ECM 12z op to t240 to a degree with the Azores High exerting itself, but the run closes with no immediate route to prolonged cold. 

One run with all the usual caveats but this is beginning to look like jam tomorrow. Let's wait on the GFS P and the ensembles to see if the op has support.

Yes how strange? maybe there is something wrong with these GFS models? and must be a reason why they can't get the cold persistently ? Para was showing us -10c isotherm at 850hpa with easterly followed by northerly on the 12z @ 384.

GEM shows midday temps widely below freezing and highs of -7c in Birmingham by 22nd:

Well the GFS 18z pub run is a bit of a damp squib. Follows the ECM 12z op to t240 to a degree with the Azores High exerting itself, but the run closes with no immediate route to prolonged cold. 

One run with all the usual caveats but this is beginning to look like jam tomorrow. Let's wait on the GFS P and the ensembles to see if the op has support.

Whereas the GFS(P) maintains the theme of a chunk of the polar vortex dropping SSE with a mid-Atlantic ridge building

Roughly how the ECM 12z might have evolved.

ECM 12z ensemble suite for London confirms that the Op was at the top of the mild cluster at Day 10.  Essentially little change, with a strong signal for cold/very cold conditions and some ice days amongst the perturbations. Still a few options producing milder conditions, but very much the minority at this stage.

Para 18z still has that Icelandic low pressure sinking southwards and then pulling in the easterly come 300hrs: Thus allows winds to turn easterly and HP to build to our north over Greenland & Iceland come +384 with daytime maxes barely getting above freezing and wind-chill combined with more persistent snow over eastern areas as the LP moves into the southern part of the North sea, come the end of the run @ +384! THE GFS 18z Para has a way more wintry and blocked ending compared with the GFS 18z Op run.

When will the GFS Op run follow the Parallel run and start being more consistent??

Only a couple of weeks ago, the ECM op started showing the trend that HP would remain close by when the ENs continued to show otherwise, and was proved right in the end when the mean chart started backing away a couple of days later. Something to maybe keep in mind if the next few ECM runs show something similar to tonight's run.