Shame you can't see and get precipitation type on para charts. 

 

Meteociel has all those charts for the parallel as well. 

Coldest 850's don't hang around long on this evening's ECM

As I suspected -this run has undone all of the gains from the 6Z ensemble.  At least down here

As I suspected -this run has undone all of the gains from the 6Z ensemble.  At least down here

 

Annoying lol

 

 

Shame you can't see and get precipitation type on para charts. 

Cumulative ppt type on TWO here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=12&charthour=6&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

Remarkable how ECM manages to dance with the cold uppers and keep them away from the UK. The 144 charts looks to be the coldest for the majority of the UK. 

Odd looking FI to the ECM run, ending on a chilly note, with I imagine some hill snow around. The T240 chart is loaded with potential with the LP dropping SE'wards to join the Scandi trough ready to advect some proper cold air our way.

All a bit academic at that range of course but fun to see.

Nice to be able to say it's still looking the switch to colder more unsettled weather is strongly favoured, with snow a possibility for just about anywhere at times. It's not looking like a prolonged cold spell down here but it does look cold and unsettled with a low chance of something more prolonged setting up.

As it stands I'd be surprised if I didn't see some snow falling, with maybe some temporary accumulations at times although I'm not expecting much more than that for the time being. 

Edit: Tally, that parallel chart reminds me VERY much of early December 2010

True they both go up to 1075mb's over Greenland!

25th Jan 2019:

16th December 2010 - You said it: 

Weird looking ECM at 240. The sort of pressure pattern that you just don’t ever see in reality, so I’m rather sceptical.

A chart with a (weakly) +ve NAO, and as I mentioned last night when the Jet is being disrupted, relatively fragile looking blocks can form and maintain themselves, so I don't think it's an unreasonable chart to see in that scenario.

. 12z ECMWF Model run:

It is not that interesting today..

Quiet and neither Cold nor MILD, but chilly yes.

And not much weather action after T120 eh.

ECM op was one of the milder runs later on. 

 

True they both go up to 1075mb's over Greenland!

25th Jan 2019:

 

16th December 2010 - You said it: 

 

 

Except that the upper block is notably weaker this time - and that is a significant difference.

ECM op was one of the milder runs later on. 

That looks to be pretty much in line with what the GFS ensemble is saying.

De Bilt ensembles.

The balance is starting to tip in favour of cold.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

De Bilt ensembles.

The balance is starting to tip in favour of cold.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 

Looks like the ECM control run was interesting!

Mean getting tasty t144 n n/e would do good Nice

De Bilt ensembles.

The balance is starting to tip in favour of cold.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 

Westward correction from its mean M quite rare indeed

At 144hr the ECM 12z op is very similiar to the UKMO at the same time point. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

very few of Ian,s yellows left >16 Jan end of Jan at the surface now Nice

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Aye yum

From next weekend on wards things look...'INTERESTING' for the whole of the UK, if this set up verifies!?