Not had time to look at the output in-depth today but the general picture remains the same. More changeable and colder weather is on the way. What's much less certain is:

1) Will the snow risk be significant in the southern half of the UK

2) Will the colder conditions be transient or prolonged

Onwards...

Today has been fascinating.

I'd say that the interest for me is at its highest since the new year. I do feel we are now starting to see some effects showing there hand. In fact Retron made the point earlier, that reversal will be ongoing for a number of days yet so thing could get better from here on in.

Looking forward to the ensembles.

Not had time to look at the output in-depth today but the general picture remains the same. More changeable and colder weather is on the way. What's much less certain is:

1) Will the snow risk be significant in the southern half of the UK

2) Will the colder conditions be transient or prolonged

Onwards...

The 12z Op run ends messy but there is plenty of snow potential in that run for all parts of the country up until 27th Jan in FI.

Meanwhile the Met Office Update looks tasty - i did share on previous thread. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

If only this could be broken down into each month and hope this or most of the blocking comes during the winter time - I.E February.

Below average temperatures at 850hpa too! Also looks like whilst the South and east of Europe have had all the cold and snow it seems as if they will warm up as we cool down as does NE AMERICA - time will tell and if this comes about - it could be that we have a very late start to Spring like back in 2018 or March 2013! Who knows?

So blocked and so perfect for southerly tracking lows as it seems!

Just got to love the northern blocking there:

From next weekend on wards things look...'INTERESTING' for the whole of the UK, if this set up verifies!? 

For me, the pattern being suggested by the models for later next week onwards is in many ways reminiscent of the one we had for a while leading up to the arrival of the Beast at the end of last February. Much of last winter IIRC seemed to be dominated by a NW-SE pattern and it was this which gave my area its greatest amount of snow of last winter prior to the coming of the Beast.

GFSP very different from the op run, with a Sceuro high by 192 hrs in place of the trough on GFS.

Different to the GFS but similiar to the 06z GFSP, so hopefully the cold will flood in from the NW on the same timescale.

.

So, looking at the GFS it has cold NW flow by Wednesday next week, then a new Low pushes in by Friday, turns less cold it brings rain in, and it has a Cold day with cold NW winds and Exiting PV Low to North Europe from the UK on the Saturday 19th Jan.

Scotland is cold on Monday the 14th with -10 850's, with much of the UK seeing less cold westerly WNW flow, and Mild air for all on Tuesday next week, 15th Jan. 2019.

The Icon Model is different on Tuesday as the Low Pressure is being tracked across Far North UK instead of Central UK, that GFS shows.  And it shows on it's 12z run, that another Deep Low pressure follow's quickly on Tuesday into Wednesday, brings cold NW winds and wintry showers after a spell of heavy rain, rain to snow in NW UK, pushing SE by Wednesday night.

It shows less cold air on Tuesday as pressure rise, with another Low moving in by Saturday 19th, to SW UK. Cold in Scotland N England by Friday Saturday.

UKMO is very much like what GFS is showing, and it brings NW winds on Wednesday 16th Jan, as cold air from the NW push Southeast, and it is less cold on the preceeding Monday and Tuesday but Tuesday brings Low Pressure with heavy rain in Central and NW North UK etc etc.

Low Pressure diving SE during Sunday 20th to Tuesday 21st on GFS 12z, a Rain Sleet and Snow event on the Sunday 20th, it is showing today but will it?.

And GFS 12z has UK being very cold On Monday and Tuesday 21 and 22 January with biting cold NE winds ha ha.

.

Some very blocked ensembles I see - some members going for intense Greenland block where as others want to bring in an easterly and centre it over Scandinavia - the rest don't know what to do with the block:

This is the average of all 20 ensembles oif the 12z run:

Notice a southerly tracking jet stream and the build of pressure over Greenland now starting to show up:

Not feast from the east weather but at least it's a start:

If only the GFSP would deliver some decent blocking to the NW 

 

The 12z Op run ends messy but there is plenty of snow potential in that run for all parts of the country up until 27th Jan in FI.

Meanwhile the Met Office Update looks tasty - i did share on previous thread. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

If only this could be broken down into each month and hope this or most of the blocking comes during the winter time - I.E February.

Below average temperatures at 850hpa too! Also looks like whilst the South and east of Europe have had all the cold and snow it seems as if they will warm up as we cool down as does NE AMERICA - time will tell and if this comes about - it could be that we have a very late start to Spring like back in 2018 or March 2013! Who knows?

It's so blocked and so perfect for southerly tracking lows as it seems!

Just got to love the northern blocking there:

I confused myself a little - what's the difference between the mean sea level pressure and 500hpa height? WHich is more relevant to us if we want cold and snowy blocked weather? Or both as good? Both charts look identical? 

If only the GFSP would deliver some decent blocking to the NW 

Looks better from the N. Pole view down- got to love this chart and 1075mbs if this comes off? - This ties in well with the met Office blocking etc over Greenland. This denotes that if we get cold snowy weather it would most probably be from a Icelandic or Greenland block instead of a Scandinavian block therefore the north of the country esp Scotland /N. Ireland would do well out of this. Scotland and N, Ireland do poorly in terms of cold when it comes to easterlies!! 

Shame you can't see and get precipitation type on para charts. 

 

I confused myself a little - what's the difference between the mean sea level pressure and 500hpa ? WHich is more relevant to us if we want cold and snowy blocked weather? Or both as good? Both charts look identical? 

Edit: Tally, that parallel chart reminds me VERY much of early December 2010