Another very warm month pushes us a bit higher above the long run mean despite the cold Feb and March

Still no sign of an average month this year. Another hot one in July. That's four in a row now.

Smallest CET deviation from the mean so far this year in August

September was the first below average month since March

Not much change in the annual CET trend during October as it was a very average month

The very warm conditions returned in November. 

With another mild month from December I would have thought we are heading towards at least one of the top ten warmest years.?

With another mild month from December I would have thought we are heading towards at least one of the top ten warmest years.?

Yes we are potentially on course for the 4th warmest year in the CET series despite the cold February and March.

It will be close as there are a number of other years with a similar temperature to 2018.

Top 3 are 2014, 2006, 2011

1990 and 1999 are very close to 2018 so we could end just above or just below these years.

If you want to make a prediction for the full year 2019 CET figure please send this to me via PM along with your January CET prediction.

Final CET for 2018 is 10.68C

That makes 2018 the fourth warmest in the 360 year CET series.

The top three years are 2014, 2006, 2011 in that order.

The figures quoted on the Hadley website are not truly accurate as they just take the mean of the 12 monthly figures. But as each month does not have the same number of days, this is not an appropriate way to determine the annual mean. My figures are based on the average of all days in the year (either 365 or 366).

Hadley has 10.69C to my 10.68C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

15 of the top 20 years in the series have all occurred since 1989

The winner of the 2018 annual CET competition is springsunshine with a prediction of 10.68C. Frank H and Whether Idle are joint second with 10.69C and 10.67C respectively. 

Just to let everyone know, I have just joined this year's competition as it is important for as many members as possible to join in order to keep it going. I won't say here what my guess for this year was but as has been said many times, it is really the taking part and the banter which counts more than anything and that is what I am looking forward to.

This means that if my guess for this year ends up being a good one, that will be a mere bonus for me.

On the button there Spring sunshine- well done.

And actually, nearly all went for a notably warm year, although >10 is rapidly becoming the norm.

Thanks again GW- hope we do as well for numbers in the annual as in the January this year.

Here are the predictions so far for 2019. We have 24 at the moment. The deadline for entry is 2359 on 7 Jan.

This competition has one slightly different rule to the monthly one which is that each prediction must be unique. This means we only have one winner at the end of the year. So it is first come first served on any particular figure. Where there are duplicates I adjust the later predictions to the nearest available figure.

I have only had to change the predictions of two people by 0.01C which is not bad considering the predictions were all private. Snow Hoper and Frank H both had their predictions increased.

FULL SIZED TABLE

Here are the predictions so far for 2019. We have 24 at the moment. The deadline for entry is 2359 on 7 Jan.

This competition has one slightly different rule to the monthly one which is that each prediction must be unique. This means we only have one winner at the end of the year. So it is first come first served on any particular figure. Where there are duplicates I adjust the later predictions to the nearest available figure.

I have only had to change the predictions of two people by 0.01C which is not bad considering the predictions were all private. Snow Hoper and Frank H both had their predictions increased.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

FULL SIZED TABLE

Hi GW

I tried to PM my entry, but your inbox is full. Happy to re-send when you have an opportunity to clear it down. Many thanks!

 

 

Hi GW

I tried to PM my entry, but your inbox is full. Happy to re-send when you have an opportunity to clear it down. Many thanks!

Likewise. 

Sorry I have now cleared some space so plenty of room for more predictions 

wow! I`d completely forgotten about this competition and just seen ive won the 2018 annual cet comp  About the only thing ive ever won.must buy a lottery ticket this week

Going to have another pop for 2019 and looking at the recent figures for the past 30 years I can`t see a sub 10c cet occurring again.It will take something of an extreme prolonged cold winter to keep the cet under 10c.Thats not going to happen either definitely not this winter so I think 2019 will come in above 10.5c.It only a mayyer of time before the first 11c+ cet.

Here is the final list of predictions

FULL SIZED TABLE

Whoops! Oh well - entirely for fun I'll throw a 9.8*C at you all .

Not entirely silly actually; I can see how it could actually happen if the spring is as delayed as it appears it might be due to the SSW, and then the E QBO, low solar combination sets up a cold Nov-Dec.

I wouldn't bet on it though! Climate change will probably serve to keep us in the mid-10s despite all of the above.

Annual CET is now well ahead of average after a slightly cooler than average January but a very warm February