Thanks for the update GW.

A nail biting month for Darren and myself. 

Darren is favourite as things stand tonight.

You’ve both done amazingly well, not only with your predictions, but in keeping us entertained with the neck and neck race!  It’s been a really tough year to call and I still think it’s still all to play for, so well done and good luck to you both!  

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I’ve gone the other way with 5c.    Oh well, between us we can keep the table together!   Now I’m betting it ends at 6c!   

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Met Office Hadley        8.4c.     Anomaly    3.4c   Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     8.74c    Anomaly    3.75c

Netweather                  9.3c      Anomaly     4.21c

Bordon                         9.3c      Anomaly     0.0c

Canvey Island               10.2c    Anomaly      2.17c

Cheadle Hulme              8.7c      Anomaly      1.78c

Clevedon Weather          10.3c    Anomaly      2.18c

Darwen                          8.5c     Anomaly      2.4c

Hexam                           5.9c     Anomaly      0.14c

Mount Sorrel                   8.9c     Anomaly      2.36c

Forest Town Mansfield   8.1c   Anomaly   1.5c

Peasedown St John  9.6c   Anomaly  3.48c

Treviskey Redruth      10.78c.    Anomaly    0.34c.

Mean of my watched 10 stations   9.02c  Anomaly   1.75c.

                      

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Met Office Hadley      8.4c.     Anomaly     3.4c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                   8.48c    Anomaly     3.49c

Netweather                9.18c    Anomaly      4.09c

Forest Town Mansfield 8.1c    Anomaly   1.5c

Peasedown St John  9.5c    Anomaly   3.38c.

Mean of my 10  8.69c. Anomaly   1.42c    

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Met Office Hadley      8.4c.     Anomaly     3.4c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                   8.48c    Anomaly     3.49c

Netweather                9.18c    Anomaly      4.09c

Forest Town Mansfield 8.1c    Anomaly   1.5c

Peasedown St John  9.5c    Anomaly   3.38c.

Mean of my 10  8.69c. Anomaly   1.42c    

 

Looking like another horribly mild December , the output at the moment suggesting 7c CET likely . Boooooo!

 

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Looking like another horribly mild December , the output at the moment suggesting 7c CET likely . Boooooo!

 

We might still be quite early in the winter just now, but the end of this month will take us to a third of the way through this winter already.

This means that if this is still somehow going to end up being a cold winter in the end, January and February are going to have to be really cold months in order to make up for this month being so horribly mild.

 

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An average of 8.4? No wonder the South coasters are moaning. In Edinburgh we've only got above that value as a maximum for 3 days out of 10 so far...

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&WMO=03166&ART=MXMN&CONT=ukuk&R=310&LEVEL=150®ION=0003&LAND=UK&NOREGION=0&MOD=&TMX=&TMN=&SON=&PRE=&MONAT=&OFFS=&SORT= 

Met Office Hadley       8.2c.     Anomaly     3.3c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                    8.17c    Anomaly     3.17c

Netweather                 8.9c      Anomaly     3.81c

Hexam                        5.0c      Anomaly     0.76c

Forest Town Mansfield  7.6c    Anomaly    1.0c

Peasedown St John      9.3c      Anomaly    3.18c

Treviskey Redruth  10.4c   Anomaly   1.44c.

Mean of my 10     8.43c.    Anomaly    1.16c. 

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Well, it was worth a shot. Right on the edge of plausible outcomes but sometimes the outside chances come to pass.

The easterlies of Wed-Fri are a real-world representation of just how easily we could have been heading into a colder and longer-lasting period of anticyclonic weather. Much as the Met Office were also anticipating as of late November. Extended modelling was keen on very large height rises across the UK and some way to the west and northwest, but there was a crucial oversight; a stretching out of the stratospheric polar vortex toward the N. Atlantic sector as a result of unusually strong (for the time of year) stratospheric warming over both Canada and East Asia. 

This warming was greatly underestimated, so the stretching out was not depicted, or even hinted at. What it's done is increased the potential vorticity over the N. Atlantic at just the time needed for the Atlantic troughs to be able to deepen far enough to first hold the big pressure build just east of the UK instead of allowing it to build across further, and then push it at least a little further east by the weekend than would otherwise have been the case.

How very unfortunate for those with either sub-5*C estimates or seeking an extended break from the frequently wet and windy weather pattern of late (or both!). It's the third major misfortune of the year, following Aug and Sep with their failed tropical cycles. The weather's not been kind to us since the joys of high summer - how's that for a balancing act!

Signs are, the tail end of the month and a good part of next (maybe all of it) will swing the pendulum of fortune the other way if you enjoy it colder with more snow potential (not saying much I know!). Fingers crossed!

 

p.s. Had to write this post twice due to a network interruption. This forum really could do with an auto-cache of what people are in the process of writing... but I suspect that's simply not possible with the software being used (?).

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🙄Maybe, maybe not. Signs can be, and often are, misleading. It’s a great part of the CET challenge to filter out those that are later proven to be red herrings.

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Met Office Hadley       8.2c      Anomaly     3.1c.    Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                    7.88c    Anomaly     3.89c

Netweather                 8.56c    Anomaly     3.47c

Forest Town Mansfield 7.3c   Anomaly   0.7c

Peasedown St John 9.2.   Anomaly   3.08c.

Mean Of 10 8.43c  Anomaly  1.16c.   

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12th of the month already and only tentative signs of something colder for the last week of the month. Too little too late this month me thinks meaning Darren will be crowned as the deserved champion for 2018.

I need something significantly colder to start showing in the next 2 or 3 days if I'm to stand a chance.

 

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Met Office Hadley         7.9c.      Anomaly       3.0c. Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                      7.48c     Anomaly       1.5c

Netweather                   8.28c     Anomaly       3.19c

Forest Town Mansfield    7.1c       Anomaly       0.5c

Peasedown St John        8.9c       Anomaly       2.78c

Treviskey Redruth         9.9c.       Anomaly       0.94c.

Mean of 10 8.02c  Anomaly  0.75c

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12th of the month already and only tentative signs of something colder for the last week of the month. Too little too late this month me thinks meaning Darren will be crowned as the deserved champion for 2018.

I need something significantly colder to start showing in the next 2 or 3 days if I'm to stand a chance.

 

Well, you’ve certainly given Darren a run for his money, which I’m sure he’ll respect, as well as making it exciting for the rest of us!  

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Well, you’ve certainly given Darren a run for his money, which I’m sure he’ll respect, as well as making it exciting for the rest of us!  

Thanks Caz...I don't want for much in life....

..apart from 5.5c or lower in December of course ! 

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Met Office Hadley       7.6c.    Anomaly      2.6c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                    7.09c    Anomaly     2.09c

Netweather                 7.87c    Anomaly     2.78c

Mount Sorrel               6.8c      Anomaly     0.26c

Forest Town Mansfield 6.5c    Anomaly    -0.1c

Peasedown St John  8.40c.  Anomaly  2.48c

Mean of my 10 watched stations 7.54c  Anomaly  0.27c.       

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Met Office Hadley       7.6c.    Anomaly      2.6c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                    7.09c    Anomaly     2.09c

Netweather                 7.87c    Anomaly     2.78c

Mount Sorrel               6.8c      Anomaly     0.26c

Forest Town Mansfield 6.5c    Anomaly    -0.1c

Peasedown St John  8.40c.  Anomaly  2.48c

Mean of my 10 watched stations 7.54c  Anomaly  0.27c.       

 

Has anyone noticed the big drop in the 10watched stations anomaly?

Over 0.75C to 0.27C in just one day? 

Today I recorded -2.8C min and have recorded a max of +3.0C. Not quite an ice day, but only a little different in terms of the CET.

It looks as if a very cold night is on the cards as I am recording -1.9C already (at 16:45). Even if it turns milder tomorrow, we can expect a substantial drop in the CET for today.

Grandad

I’ve actually recorded a below zero value today as well as seeing -1c on the car temp this morning, the first time I’ve seen a negative value since last winter. It’s stayed frosty all day out of the sun and it’s certainly colder now than it was this time last night, so I expect today’s CET will be considerably lower than any other day this month.  

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The CET was just 0.67C yesterday. 

Another cold day today and then the mild conditions return for the foreseeable future. There are a few cold runs showing up from Christmas onwards but the majority keep it at or above average.

At the moment it is looking like December will end in the very mild category. For example a final CET of 6.5C would equal 2006. Only 2015 has been warmer than this since 1988.

Thanks for the analysis. I’m rueing my low guess and somewhat irritated by allowing myself to be distracted by some of the very conflicting signals that were apparent at the turn of the month.

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