Yes indeed Gavin It does look much colder before then.

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With all of these forecasts of colder weather being on the way, I just hope that we don't end up with a situation where we get a lot of cold weather during the next week or so, only for that to then end up being "it" for our winter.

Given the nature of the weather here in the UK, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if that was what ended up happening.

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With all of these forecasts of colder weather being on the way, I just hope that we don't end up with a situation where we get a lot of cold weather during the next week or so, only for that to then end up being "it" for our winter.

Given the nature of the weather here in the UK, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if that was what ended up happening.

I seem to remember that happening possibly winter 16? everyone was banning on about a cold start to winter the beeb went public with live facebook's and even putting it on regionals only for it to go to pot around a week before and the mild wet weather took us through pretty much all winter

I’d not be too worried about that in midautumn to be honest.

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Is it possible to have a westerly based QBO as forecast and still end up with a cold winter, or at least some very cold spells?

I can’t help thinking the old ‘bear a duck/ slush & muck’ in November folklore saying... besides it being October of course.

Is it possible to have a westerly based QBO as forecast and still end up with a cold winter, or at least some very cold spells?

I can’t help thinking the old ‘bear a duck/ slush & muck’ in November folklore saying... besides it being October of course.

That is what will be so fascinating to discover. Does our normal understanding about teleconnections hold true when the sun is going through an extended and deep minimum? There is a statistical correlation from historical records and negative NAO winters predominating during what are termed grand minima. Not sure of the reason though, but if it does turn out that way, it should improve our understanding of climate science no end.

Should be an interesting ride for the next couple of months.

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Is it possible to have a westerly based QBO as forecast and still end up with a cold winter, or at least some very cold spells?

I can’t help thinking the old ‘bear a duck/ slush & muck’ in November folklore saying... besides it being October of course.

1990-91 was about as strongly westerly as it's possible to get, yet it delivered an epic pre-Christmas snowstorm and then, following a violently stormy Christmas, a seemingly endless snowy freeze-up throughout February.

 

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Given the nature of the weather here in the UK, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if that was what ended up happening.

Me too - also with the easterly QBO weakening, Siberian snow cover season occurring later than norm and El Nino strengthening this can only mean one thing and if we were to get cold it will more likely to occur early winter than late. The only Good news is that we are at solar minimum! 

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What a cracking year of weather this has been! Icing on the cake if we get a snow event in the south next week. 

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Snow row is at 2 for London this morning (and 23 in Inverness). Based on the last few days I would think snow is possible for higher ground in parts of the north but rather unlikely elsewhere except if you get some heavy precipitation.

In the period beyond the weekend anything looks possibly but cool and unsettled with the chance of high pressure to the northeast (after “toppling” over) looks most likely based on current evidence.

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2nd run in a row from ECM which shows milder/warmer air flooding north through Europe and towards the UK as we leave October and go into November

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres 

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What a cracking year of weather this has been! Icing on the cake if we get a snow event in the south next week. 

INDEED MR BRIAN. summer has been amazing. hopefully a MEGA cold winter ahead. and a early taste of winter this weekend. just in time to break in the wollies.

INDEED MR BRIAN. summer has been amazing. hopefully a MEGA cold winter ahead. and a early taste of winter this weekend. just in time to break in the wollies.

Get the winter woolies ready, but as Gavin points out above, I wouldn't put those t-shirts away just yet. ECM more than just hinting at some potential warmth.

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Get the winter woolies ready, but as Gavin points out above, I wouldn't put those t-shirts away just yet. ECM more than just hinting at some potential warmth.

Aside from being an outlier I don’t think, even if they were to transpire, the conditions in the ECM 00z FI section would even be as mild as it is now. Perhaps mid teens in the south, single figures in the north and really not the most noteworthy feature of the NWP output. Having said that we are getting to the stage people cherrypick FI charts in isolation when looking for a favoured scenario. 

That’s not a criticism in th slightest and it is all valid and on topic and at least it gets a good bit of discussion going.

I suspect many will welcome a return to milder conditions if it occurs.

What the GFS shows for the same time period is a bit cooler http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_231_48.png 

So a good range of options in FI and it will be a few days before we know, which if any, of the current scenarios is most likely.

 

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What worries me is not the alternating warmth and cold of the British Isles this early in the season, what puts fear into my heart is the prospect of seeing the Polar vortex getting organised in its habitual home leading to never ending positive NAO and unremitting zonality.

So we can have a warm spell if that is what a meridional jet will produce periodically, but hope against hope that the P.V. fails to materialise over Greenland and Canada.

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Tentative hints from GFS moving towards a milder/warmer outlook for a lot of Europe as we leave October and move into November

GEM picking up on the milder air as well

 

Unfortunately the colder than average outlook after the next few days looks likely to continue into November in the UK. Although as you suggest Gavin if people head abroad to SE Europe or Spain they find some warmer conditions. The GFS op run also shows warmer than average conditions predominating in western parts of N America. 

Sadly here in the UK the GFS op run suggests something a good deal cooler. 

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I think a realignment of heights towards Scandinavia will allow for a more southerly flow as we head into November, whether this is precursor for something else down the line remains to be seen.

There were some hits and suggestions that end of the first week of November - BONFIRE NIGHT  is going to be cold. and wet for some...