Yes a big cold plunge next weekend and not a bad snow row for London in October. Early winter signs look good with the Atlantic pretty much dead and HLB evident.

 

 

 

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Anyone have a good direct link to London ensembles? The one I normally use won’t refresh & stuck on 17.10.18

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Anyone have a good direct link to London ensembles? The one I normally use won’t refresh & stuck on 17.10.18

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

Use the TWO charts they're great as above. Just click in Charts - GEFS - London 

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Yes a big cold plunge next weekend and not a bad snow row for London in October. Early winter signs look good with the Atlantic pretty much dead and HLB evident.

It doesn't show on the ensembles, but the northerly plunge next weekend shown on GFS0z looks like a rehearsal -affecting mainly the east coast - for the main event a week later, which involves a major depression bringing arctic air to the whole country. See T+276

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It doesn't show on the ensembles, but the northerly plunge next weekend shown on GFS0z looks like a rehearsal -affecting mainly the east coast - for the main event a week later, which involves a major depression bringing arctic air to the whole country. See T+276

That latter chart shows unsettled conditions rather than anything overly cold. For example there is no sub 528dam air (500-1000hPa thickness) anywhere on the chart to which you refer. Compare that with next Saturday when essentially the entire country is covered in a sub 528dam airmass: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_150_33.png 

Chilly and unstable sums up next weekend nicely (sunshine and showers with a frost risk in places). After that it is too early to say but unsettled seems the main theme with cooler conditions at times.

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ECM view this morning: after today's near-miss with the 564dam and the little blip tomorrow, a swathe of warm air covers much of the country by Wednesday, with 850s up to 14C in parts of the spine of the country.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/72_thickuk.png?cb=761

What a contrast 5 days later, with central England under -6C uppers and as Doc says, sub-528 over many.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/192_thickuk.png?cb=688

 

 

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That latter chart shows unsettled conditions rather than anything overly cold. For example there is no sub 528dam air (500-1000hPa thickness) anywhere on the chart to which you refer. Compare that with next Saturday when essentially the entire country is covered in a sub 528dam airmass: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_150_33.png 

Chilly and unstable sums up next weekend nicely (sunshine and showers with a frost risk in places). After that it is too early to say but unsettled seems the main theme with cooler conditions at times.

The chart to which I referred is on https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx and that looks cold, not just chilly

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If you’re referring to the 276hr time period (mentioned in your earlier post) I have already explained that it is not overly cold in terms of airmass. Average at most for the time of year. Are you referring to the blues on the 500hPa charts which often than not indicate unsettled conditions rather rather than cold? A glance at partial thickness or t850hPa data will confirm that in this case.

The link above in your post just shows the GFS run as a whole?

Here are the modelled maxima for +276hr on the 00z GFS run http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_276_uk2mtmp.png?cb=548 

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The chart to which I referred is on https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx and that looks cold, not just chilly

That link gives today's default 500mb chart. If you click on the chart you're referring to the open it, then ctrl + C the address bar, you'll be able to paste the actual chart you want.

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If you like the theory of patterns repeating GFS 6Z is a nice run for winter prospects if you like Easterly Synoptics

Yes that 06z GFS op run does offer some easterlyness. Overall the ensemble suite continues the theme from earlier runs with next weekend being chilly and then a return to more average conditions for the time of the year. Before that it looks like the mostly above average temperatures will continue for a few days.

The ensemble suite of the 06z shows the options very nicely, the first chart is for Aberdeen the latter one for London:

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres 

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Well it looks like the season of proper ‘weather’ is about to get underway in decent style next weekend.

 

Liverpool gets 12 snow rows for next Saturday, Newcastle 16 (plus 11 the following day)

 

 

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Check out the ECM 12Z - better than GFS if you want an early start to winter:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

 

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I know these charts look great but we really need to see these sort of patterns persist as we head into next month. What we don’t want is the PV forming over its favourite locale as I feel we could well miss the boat with us being in a transitional stage of the QBO, once it enters its West based phase its game over more or less going of previous analogues if it’s a cold blocked pattern you wish to see.

A fairly typical early cold snap for the North next weekend by the looks of it. The usual "if only it were January" cliche caveats apply of course

Still after the glorious Autumn so far it will be of interest as a new pattern comes in.

 

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I know these charts look great but we really need to see these sort of patterns persist as we head into next month. What we don’t want is the PV forming over its favourite locale as I feel we could well miss the boat with us being in a transitional stage of the QBO, once it enters its West based phase its game over more or less going of previous analogues if it’s a cold blocked pattern you wish to see.

It's almost as if you took a look at my post over on the other forum :P

Your thoughts pretty much echo mine 100%

 

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Well it’s not January, it’s autumn so a nice little brief northerly shot will provide some crisp days, a bit convection and hill snow in the north so all is good.

Before then things seem rather benign with anticyclonic conditions prevailing and some pleasant mostly mild albeit a bit nondescript weather for many.

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A fairly typical early cold snap for the North next weekend by the looks of it. The usual "if only it were January" cliche caveats apply of course

Pretty much my view. It is the type of northerly I'd not be getting excited about even if it were January.

 

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Pretty much my view. It is the type of northerly I'd not be getting excited about even if it were January.

 

Neither would I in either of your locations.  

Interestingly the Radio 4 news bulletin at 11pm even mentioned the risk of sleet or snow up here by the end of the coming week. I’m not sure it’s newsworthy. 

Either way the Arctic northerly is still shown on the 18z GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_117_1.png

It must be near winter though to be getting the posts about where a moderately cold northerly is not intetesting in the areas it doesn’t really affect 

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Neither would I in either of your locations.  

Interestingly the Radio 4 news bulletin at 11pm even mentioned the risk of sleet or snow up here by the end of the coming week. I’m not sure it’s newsworthy. 

Either way the Arctic northerly is still shown on the 18z GFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_117_1.png

 

We can do very well from northerlies under the right conditions in winter. I know my northerlies. 

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