Looks like the current output is placing next Weds rain event further South and East ...affecting SE England and parts of E.Anglia...

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Op looks like its leading the pack for a warm up from the 1st day of Autumn

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I can't believe how bad tomorrow is now looking - the Met Office show a midday temperature of 12C here with heavy rain. That is as bad as it gets in summer.

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Op looks like its leading the pack for a warm up from the 1st day of Autumn

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png 

 

I have two weeks off from 7th September. I'll happily take a 2006 scenario with a disappointing August leading to a beautiful September. 

 

 

I have two weeks off from 7th September. I'll happily take a 2006 scenario with a disappointing August leading to a beautiful September. 

I find that September is often better overall than August here, although my point in the chart that I posted was in reply to the September warmth was highlighting the sub528dam air in northern parts of Shetland. 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png 

Mmm... (where's the drool emote?)

Amazing, frankly. I don't think I've ever seen a GFS chart bringing the -5C 850 line across Scotland from a run in August before!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_2.png

537dam in the far north too:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_384_ukthickness850nohd.png?cb

Fantastic stuff. I would imagine that has about as much chance of coming off as a win on the National Lottery tonight!

 

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Mmm... (where's the drool emote?)

Amazing, frankly. I don't think I've ever seen a GFS chart bringing the -5C 850 line across Scotland from a run in August before!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_2.png

537dam in the far north too:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_384_ukthickness850nohd.png?cb

Fantastic stuff. I would imagine that has about as much chance of coming off as a win on the National Lottery tonight!

 

Gone on the 12z update as expected. Nonetheless I have a gut feeling that September could deliver an early and "potent" cold snap.  

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Bit of a model divergence for Sat 1st Sept - 7 days time . . .

GFS hangs onto the dry, warm and settled theme: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018082518/gfs-0-162.png?18

ECM looking more unsettled: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018082512/ECM1-168.GIF?25-0

More so with GEM: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2018082512/gem-0-168.png?12

Still a little beyond UKMO's range, so I'm still no wiser with the forecast for my nephew's wedding on that day.

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ECM has joined GEM this morning. All a question of whether that small but potent depression moves in a sits over us, or as GFS has it, stands off in the Atlantic and brings up aoutherly air. See T+216.

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Gone on the 12z update as expected. Nonetheless I have a gut feeling that September could deliver an early and "potent" cold snap.  

What do you mean by potent for early September?  I would describe it as low double figure maximums by day and single figure night time minimums with ground frosts in places and possibly an air frost in one or two areas.

 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_264_17.png 

Again, nothing unusual and likely to be gone in a few hours but highlights that autumn is approaching.

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What do you mean by potent for early September?  I would describe it as low double figure maximums by day and single figure night time minimums with ground frosts in places and possibly an air frost in one or two areas.

I was thinking of the possibility of snow falling to lower levels in the northern half of the UK at some point in September. Also I meant early in the context of the meteorological autumn, not the month. 

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I was thinking of the possibility of snow falling to lower levels in the northern half of the UK at some point in September. Also I meant early in the context of the meteorological autumn, not the month. 

My goodness - that's more intense than I would have thought. I can well imagine that is possible though.

 

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Taking of snow falling: 12z gives us a (warm) Beast from the East. Proper set up: pressure rises, isobars tighten, airmass rushes towards us from the Baltic. Keep an eye on these runs as we head towards winter - this isn’t the first one in the last week.

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I was thinking of the possibility of snow falling to lower levels in the northern half of the UK at some point in September. Also I meant early in the context of the meteorological autumn, not the month. 

Has that even happened before? It's hard enough getting snow before December - it's very uncommon in November and very rare in October (I can count on one hand the number of times I have seen snow falling in October in my lifetime).

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Has that even happened before? It's hard enough getting snow before December - it's very uncommon in November and very rare in October (I can count on one hand the number of times I have seen snow falling in October in my lifetime).

1919 and 1952 I believe but it is exceptionally rare. 

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1919 and 1952 I believe but it is exceptionally rare. 

If I remember rightly though, it has even been known to snow in June before even though it is very rare for that to happen.

 

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Yes, you’re right. Most famously in 1975 and rather less so in 1985.

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According to the UK Met Office:

On 25 September 1885 snow was reported to have fallen at London and Wallington in Surrey making it the earliest fall of snow on the capital

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