I just dont get how 30 degrees and sultry heat is so exciting. A pleasant summer,s day of 25 degrees and comfotrtable humidity is far more enjoyable I wonder what a poll would reveal ?

30C+ is good for me because it usually means it stays warm enough to be outside in the garden until late, giving that rare "European" feel of a truly warm evening. 25C is all well and good in the daytime but come 9pm it's getting cold and damp.

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It really is notable how the NWP is so desperate to bring in an easterly drift with high pressure anchoring itself over Scandinavia. 

The SSW of February really seems to have had an impact on the pressure patterns since then through spring and potentially summer too. 

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If only it were February

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If only it were February

The outlook is still amazing for next week with crystal clear blue skies and very warm temperatures. 

There has been a subtle and steady northward move in the HP over the past few runs whereas before there was a steady SE’ly drift.

Maybe not as spectacularly hot as first predicted but the pendulum could still swing the other way. 

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From summer 2007 onwards, we have been plagued by excessive wetness during summers with individual summer months often returning 100mm+ rainfall totals but this summer has been very dry so far. This month could be the driest summer month for England and Wales since August 1995.

Look how dry that GFS 12 op run was, no accumulated rainfall at all for tip of Cornwall even at 384hrs (7th July)

 

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30C+ is good for me because it usually means it stays warm enough to be outside in the garden until late, giving that rare "European" feel of a truly warm evening. 25C is all well and good in the daytime but come 9pm it's getting cold and damp.

 That nails it for me. 

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30C+ is good for me because it usually means it stays warm enough to be outside in the garden until late, giving that rare "European" feel of a truly warm evening. 25C is all well and good in the daytime but come 9pm it's getting cold and damp.

 

Cant say i really like a European feel, Atlantic air is normally clearer and fresher. Physical work above 25 degrees and high humidity is quite draining day in day out. Different if you are born to it .Warm days cool nights better for me. Having been outside since early i dont hanker after sitting in the garden.

From summer 2007 onwards, we have been plagued by excessive wetness during summers with individual summer months often returning 100mm+ rainfall totals but this summer has been very dry so far. This month could be the driest summer month for England and Wales since August 1995.

Look how dry that GFS 12 op run was, no accumulated rainfall at all for tip of Cornwall even at 384hrs (7th July)

The AMO has taken on a negative appearance, which differs to the state it's been in during the majority of recent summers, and this could well be a factor as some research has shown a link between a negative AMO and drier summers across far-NW Europe including the UK.

 

ECM 12z offers plenty of sunshine and high temperatures, followed by a very gradual destabilisation at the weekend (yes, okay, typical timing eh?) with conditions remaining very warm or quite hot where the sun keeps finding a way through.

Based on the tendency of model output in general of late, I expect that shallow low would soon exit SE of the UK to allow for further ridging from the Azores, though there are signs it may not be such a strong feature as we're looking at next week. Then again... next week's ridge was once looking much weaker with the chance of changeable westerlies continuing across the north!

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Next week’s temps continue to be moderated ...more like mid 20’s rather than the 31+ being suggested on this mornings radio bulletins.
A scandy high will draw in cooler sea breezes as the week goes on too. Probably high teens for south eastern coasts and morning mist til noon.

 

30C+ is good for me because it usually means it stays warm enough to be outside in the garden until late, giving that rare "European" feel of a truly warm evening. 25C is all well and good in the daytime but come 9pm it's getting cold and damp.

Should move to coast then... 25C by day can still be 21C come 10pm, but then again I guess warm in waters, urbanization, low lying, and other factors all come into play. 

As for blwsur 25C is quite a bog standard warm summer day - come late June going into July those highs are not remarkable or even noticed.

Next week’s temps continue to be moderated ...more like mid 20’s rather than the 31+ being suggested on this mornings radio bulletins.
A scandy high will draw in cooler sea breezes as the week goes on too. Probably high teens for south eastern coasts and morning mist til noon.

 

ECM Op and Mean look stunningly hot this evening would imagine plenty of 30s over the next 10 days if it verifies. 

 

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ECM Op and Mean look stunningly hot this evening would imagine plenty of 30s over the next 10 days if it verifies. 

 

We are set for an incredible spell of weather and potentially although far too early to say, a real classic of a summer.

I would not be at all surprised if we see many records broken this summer, both in terms of heat and dryness. It really is turning into a Bobby Dazzler. Makes up for the cold dank miserable days of gloom last winter and anything that makes Retron swelter is good for me 🤣😊🤣.

Just kidding Darren - I know you can't stand the heat, but this is particularly rare for us summer lovers so just grin and bear it.

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18z is a very slight upgrade on 12z in medium term. Still no 30s.

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Those who aren't early birds are presently missing out on the pleasent cool air outside. For once it's below 10C, which is unusual here at the end of June / early July. This cooler, fresher interlude was well modelled and tomorrow morning should see a repeat.

The ECM ensembles, incidentally, continue to show a warm but not especially hot spell on the way, with mean highs at Reading settling around 24 or 25C over the coming week and beyond. This in itself is quite unusual, as we would usually see the heat building until it all gets swept away. The lingering legacy of the February pattern chance continues, it seems.

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro

Meanwhile with an easterly here on the coast highs look like sticking to the low 20s, with anything approaching 30 being very unlikely. No complaints here!

https://weather.us/forecast/2644544-leysdown-on-sea/ensemble/euro

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GFS 00z fires up the blowtorch. 33C likely based on it.

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GFS 00z fires up the blowtorch. 33C likely based on it.

And universally dry virtually from start to finish on the 0z. Drought incoming. What an amazing start to summer.

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The GEFS for London this morning shows the 0z run to be a marked outlier:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 

A relic of lower-resolution ensembles compared to a high-res op run, or just going off on one? We'll see soon enough...

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Maxes of 25c in reality next week.
Gfs overcooking ground temps just as it does with cold extremes in winter during a continental airflow.

GEM and ukmo also looking hot this morning. Could be quite a spell. What will the ECM bring?

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Yep. So far (awaiting ECM), the runs have eased off on the easterly flow and we’re looking at a hotter SE’ly drift instead. 

White Meadows - my conservative MetO app is saying 26C here - I think many people will see temps of at least 28C. 

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