WX temp charts are back! Week 1 below norm in W Europe, much above norm in E Europe. Week 2, somewhat milder air moves into most of Europe (but no change for Scotland) from the SW, but Russia cools down under the influence of very cold air from the NE. Dry for Europe in week 1 with any pptn round the Atlantic and Mediterranean edges, general advance from Atlantic in week 2 esp heavy for Ireland and Portugal.
GFS Op - Current HP holding its position to the weekend, then slipping away SE-wards and by Tue 21st weak troughs of LP from Atlantic affecting Britain, mostly in the N, before very strong band of SW-lies set up Fri 24th and persist over the weekend between HP 1040mb France and 950mb Iceland. Once this calms down, a ridge of HP over Britain Thu 30th migrates to Scandinavia 1045mb Sat 1st - a copy of what was supposed to be happening a week earlier.
ECM - like GFS at first but from the 25th the HP over Europe is very weak and the LP on the Atlantic closer 955mb near Rockall. Net result for Britain at that time is less wind but more rain
GEFS - mean temp down to norm on Sun 19th and staying there to Sat 1st, ens members with a wide spread Sat 25th but converging later. First appearance of rain in some runs Wed 22nd but becoming more general and heavier (esp in SW) from Sat 25th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl