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Quantum
15 January 2025 19:10:16
If its any consolation we do get a scandi high on the ECM eventually at T+360h.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0)
2023/2024 Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
15 January 2025 21:12:38
There's always a phantom snowy easterly in the noise most years. Sometimes makes it to met text.  In the end it's a just glancing blow at best. 6c and grey drizzle for 2 or 3 days for southerners.
Berkshire
squish
15 January 2025 22:17:06
Of course somewhere between the easterly option and the raging Atlantic is our perfect sweet spot for snow and cold....
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
15 January 2025 22:23:20
18z at +168 looking like ICON/UKMO 12's
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
idj20
15 January 2025 22:44:16

Of course somewhere between the easterly option and the raging Atlantic is our perfect sweet spot for snow and cold....

Originally Posted by: squish 


Or the first real taste of Spring warmth going by the GFS 18z run. 🤣
Folkestone Harbour. 
Arbroath 1320
15 January 2025 22:49:44

Or the first real taste of Spring warmth going by the GFS 18z run. 🤣

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Aye, the GFS has completely backed off the idea of building height rises to the NE.

Looks like it's firming up on a very familiar set up.
Kenmore, Highland Perthshire, GGTTH
Quantum
15 January 2025 22:59:53
ICON18Z looks good, not a downgrade.
UKMO18Z is a big upgrade. Cold gets in much earlier!

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0)
2023/2024 Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
tallyho_83
16 January 2025 00:00:14
Quite a big flip here the 00z Shows Scandi and a gentle easterly @ 240z
850's of -5 to -10c and temps freezing or below quite widely.

UserPostedImage

Latest 18z Op run flattens any ridge and shows a south westerly @ 222z

850's of +5 to +10c and temps into double digits.


UserPostedImage
I am convinced the cold spell over NE States isn't helping our block because looking at the ENS for Washington DC - The GFS ENS runs have trended colder at the same time we have trended much milder - coincidence or what? On 21st January Washington DC has an upper air 850hpa mean of -23.9c. 
Don't know if this could turn out to be the coldest US Presidential inauguration ever?!?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Zubzero
16 January 2025 02:02:42
To me the GEFS and the charts overall are shocking if its a cold spell your after.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=300&y=111&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 
Can see little to no hope of any cold for the next few weeks, hopefully the mid term outlook is looking better in a week or so. 
Retron
16 January 2025 05:19:45
This morning's 0z GFS ends with a large high over Scandinavia yet again. It's as if there are two competing forces: one, strong zonality caused by the deep cold over North America firing up the jet and two, something which causes a high to pop up to the NE. The previous few days have seen the two sides rising and falling in terms of influence, but it seems the background signals for height rises to the NE are still there - IF the jet calms down enough.

It's certainly not without interest, that's for sure.
Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
16 January 2025 06:11:16
As we approach February, statistically our snowiest UK month, the glimmer of our next chase teases on the horizon. 
Not to be dismissed until the idea is dropped from the Met office ‘alternative’ scenario mid range text. 
Will EC 00z follow up with the goods? 
Ally Pally Snowman
16 January 2025 08:20:07
The easterly does appear to be slipping away. Ensembles generally poor but GFS P6 still keeps the dream alive. 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=210&lid=P06&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
16 January 2025 08:28:59
This morning's extended ECM is rather snowy, FWIW - a combination of a deep Atlantic low with some of that NA cold air still entrained, and a weak ridge to the NW slowing things down somewhat.
https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf®ion=europe&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mmph,snowdepth&run=00&step=312&plottype=10&lat=51.398&lon=0.922&skewtstep=0 
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2025 08:52:18
WX temp charts are back! Week 1 below norm in W Europe, much above norm in E Europe. Week 2, somewhat milder air moves into most of Europe (but no change for Scotland) from the SW, but Russia cools down under the influence of very cold air from the NE. Dry for Europe in week 1 with any pptn round the Atlantic and Mediterranean edges, general advance from Atlantic in week 2 esp heavy for Ireland and Portugal.

GFS Op - Current HP holding its position to the weekend, then slipping away SE-wards and by  Tue 21st weak troughs of LP from Atlantic affecting Britain, mostly in the N, before very strong band of SW-lies set up Fri 24th and persist over the weekend between HP 1040mb France and 950mb Iceland. Once this calms down, a ridge of HP over Britain Thu 30th migrates to Scandinavia 1045mb Sat 1st - a copy of what was supposed to be happening a week earlier.

ECM - like GFS at first but from the 25th the HP over Europe is very weak and the LP on the Atlantic closer 955mb near Rockall. Net result for Britain at that time is less wind but more rain

GEFS - mean temp down to norm on Sun 19th and staying there to Sat 1st, ens members with a wide spread Sat 25th but converging later. First appearance of rain in some runs Wed 22nd but becoming more general and heavier (esp in SW) from Sat 25th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
16 January 2025 09:11:23
A horrible cocktail of modern era, GW, goalpost movement has eliminated any hopeful noise from becoming reality.
30 years ago a different game...

Berkshire
ballamar
16 January 2025 09:23:59

The easterly does appear to be slipping away. Ensembles generally poor but GFS P6 still keeps the dream alive. 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=210&lid=P06&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Still think we could see short term surprises in the models, if for example the Atlantic is modelled to be slightly too strong or the angle is wrong. Less chance now but a high could rapidly inflate over Scandi. 
But it isn’t look as positive as 3-4 days ago!
nsrobins
16 January 2025 09:38:12
The key (or one of them) is the relationship between the ‘Az’ low in the sub tropical jet and the Svalbard trough on the main arm. The failed Scandy high set up sees the latter absorbing the former, removing the chance of lower heights getting underneath and the whole thing sinks away under the battering from a rampant polar jet off the US. 
The successful Scandy high scenarios see the opposite, with the Az low absorbing the other and getting energy under the developing high - propping it up and voila (as per P6 last night). The current ICON looks like it’s going the right way.
A simple way to look at it 😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Taylor1740
16 January 2025 10:03:08
Still one or two rogue runs in the GEFS bringing in the properly cold air but it's maybe a 2% chance at best now so I won't be getting my hopes up.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Taylor1740
16 January 2025 10:05:46

A horrible cocktail of modern era, GW, goalpost movement has eliminated any hopeful noise from becoming reality.
30 years ago a different game...

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


Indeed, the modern era does not seem to be conducive to Easterlies and any cold spells we get now are either Greenland highs or mid-atlantic ridging.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
idj20
16 January 2025 10:36:51

A horrible cocktail of modern era, GW, goalpost movement has eliminated any hopeful noise from becoming reality.
30 years ago a different game...

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 


We didn't have access to 240 hrs+ charts 30 years ago so there was none of that going up the garden path rainbow chasing thing, but I do agree with you on the modern era GW thing as I think our winters are being more watered down. Yes, we had the infamous Bartlett/Euro High winters of 1988 and 1989 before going onto experiencing some decent winter set ups after that - even in the 2010s even though they were more short lived, but the general warming up trend overall is there and then by 2020s is as if a switch has been flicked.  

Anyway, onto model watching, I'm pleased to see the monster lows shown in yesterday's output have been toned down, even more pleased to see early spring in the latest GFS run. ECM is a bit Atlantic driven, though. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Quantum
16 January 2025 10:44:42
Returning to my three variable paradigm (obviously I've lost alot of confidence!) and looking at the GEFS6Z mean at 120h compared to the 0Z.
1) CONUS cold core is further west and weaker (Good)
2) NA Blocking is weaker (Bad)
3) Early iceland trough is stronger (Good)
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 6 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0)
2023/2024 Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
tallyho_83
16 January 2025 10:55:04

Indeed, the modern era does not seem to be conducive to Easterlies and any cold spells we get now are either Greenland highs or mid-atlantic ridging.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


I have noticed that actually most of our cold snaps are from mid Atlantic ridges.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
16 January 2025 10:56:00
The signal for blocking to the northeast seems to have all but vanished today, after steadily weakening yesterday. Many of the charts have that horrible 1990s flat look about them today.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
16 January 2025 11:13:21
Can anybody see anything in the model output that is likely to clear the persistent and semi-permanent thick grey cloud that generally seems to lie S.E of a line from Hull to Dorset and has done so for most of the winter. I've given up on cold so that would be my next wishful thinking.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
16 January 2025 11:13:23

I have noticed that actually most of our cold snaps are from mid Atlantic ridges.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



It's something I've noticed, too (for me, it goes back to the mid-00s)

The problem is, unless it's a stable block ridging south from Greenland, these mid-Atlantic blocks are fragile and usually fleeting, delivering just a brief colder snap.

IMO, they've maintained the frequency of snow falls for this region (when some other regions have seen a noticeable decline) - but the downside is that snow has more often than not become more transient.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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