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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 July 2024 05:14:51
In the first week of July, at least 10 U.S. towns and cities tied or broke their hottest temperatures recorded on any day in at least 70 years of record-keeping. 

Details on https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/07/record-heat-engulfs-both-u-s-coasts/

Includes photo of sign at entrance to Death Valley "Walking after 10am not recommended". But the UK partner in summer misfortunes is Alaska, well below average.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
17 July 2024 03:08:14
ozone_aurora
18 July 2024 19:24:34
Several thundery showers have occurred over W coast of Iceland later today (18 Jul 2024), including around Reykjavik area.
picturesareme
19 July 2024 00:13:05
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1813891464323305715 
Extreme cold in the tropics.. this time Australia 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2024 07:21:22

https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1813891464323305715
Extreme cold in the tropics.. this time Australia 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Interesting. The diurnal ranges are huge. The temperature still made 29.4C the next day in Palmerville after a low of 0.5C 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ozone_aurora
19 July 2024 08:23:04

Several thundery showers have occurred over W coast of Iceland later today (18 Jul 2024), including around Reykjavik area.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


There's also been a heatwave in NE Iceland, with max temperatures up to and even exceeding 27 C, according to mbl.is.
Perthite1
27 July 2024 11:35:31
A SSW event has taken place over Antartica over the past couple of weeks. These events are much rarer than in the Northern hemisphere, this will only be the 3rd in the last 60 years. It is also the first to occur in the southern hemisphere winter, the others have occurred in spring. Living in SW Australia this could be great news for us with a higher chance of a wet end to winter and start to spring. July has broken the average rainfall and signs are pointing to a wetter than average winter, possibly plus 400mm for the 3 months. 
polarwind
27 July 2024 11:40:33

A SSW event has taken place over Antartica over the past couple of weeks. These events are much rarer than in the Northern hemisphere, this will only be the 3rd in the last 60 years. It is also the first to occur in the southern hemisphere winter, the others have occurred in spring. Living in SW Australia this could be great news for us with a higher chance of a wet end to winter and start to spring. July has broken the average rainfall and signs are pointing to a wetter than average winter, possibly plus 400mm for the 3 months. 

Originally Posted by: Perthite1 


Interesting stuff - thank you.
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Dave,Derby
Perthite1
27 July 2024 13:21:46

Interesting stuff - thank you.

Originally Posted by: polarwind 


Great to see interest… the southern hemisphere weather is very different to the north. Less landmass and mountain ranges, so we don’t see the zonal disruption. So an event like this is unusual. The below is taken from an amateur meteorologist I follow from Queensland.

Earlier this July, the temperature more than 20 kilometres above the east Antarctic coastline suddenly warmed by about 50 degrees Celsius in a week — an event called a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW).

While SSWs occur every other year in the northern hemisphere, they are extremely rare in the southern hemisphere, and have never previously been observed in winter.

The rapid polar warming is now beginning to filter down towards the surface in the form of higher pressure over Antarctica, a set-up which has the potential to impact Australia's weather through August and possibly well into spring.

Typically this sudden change over the stratosphere will then filter down and disrupt the troposphere (the layer of atmosphere where weather occurs), which can result in prolonged spells of extreme weather for weeks.

Technically the warming of the stratosphere is required to average at least 25C to be classified as a true SSW, and while this event's warming has doubled that figure near the east Antarctic coast, the average warming over the whole of Antarctica may have so far peaked just below the threshold.

A pair of leading international weather models are predicting the SSW footprint will continue into August, which could mean frequent stormy conditions for the southern states, and possibly renewed bursts of gale-force winds and heavy alpine snow in the weeks ahead.

While the weather is already being impacted by the warm stratosphere over Antarctica, its ongoing presence could instigate a chain of events with the potential for long-lasting impacts on southern hemisphere atmospheric conditions.

A critical step in this prolonged influence would be a reduction in this year's ozone hole. Essentially the more ozone the more heating occurs and the weaker the polar vortex, while a depleted ozone layer, like we saw in 2023, leads to a colder and stronger polar vortex.

The above process would lead to a similar expansion of westerly winds through spring, bringing further above-average rain to the southern coast and ranges, while again leading to warmer and drier conditions for the east coast.

There is no guarantee a second anomalous weather system near Antarctica won't reverse the stratospheric warming through the coming weeks. Another wildcard is the residual moisture from the Hunga-Tonga volcano, which could counterbalance the excess ozone.

So in summary in simple terms more winter systems for the southern states are likely for the remainder of July and throughout August. Current modelling suggests a drier remainder of winter for Queensland possibly extending into September. Enhanced fire risk from late August for the eastern half of Queensland. With a meridional jet stream pattern likely highly variable conditions with sharper wind changes alternating from warmer ahead to cooler behind with an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms as the temperatures warm late August into September. The risk of spring frosts are higher also particularly southern Queensland regions.
ozone_aurora
27 July 2024 13:32:43
Thank you. I will watch the SH with great interest. I'd be interested to see how this will affect S America and southern Africa, as you've already mentioned Australia.
tallyho_83
06 August 2024 23:08:52
Interesting stuff about the SSW in S . Hemisphere but doubt it will have an impact on the weather patterns of the N. Hemisphere.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH18_54_5.png 
Just wanted to share this temperature map for N. Hemisphere on 00z Friday 9th August - take a look at the Canadian Arctic and notice the +30'c well north of NWT and further noth of Yellowknife. We are looking at Dawson City and Inuvik etc. - Incredible how its +30c some 60'N. Fairbanks, Alaska reached 29.0c today and Whitehorse in Yukon reached 30.0c today.   
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Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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GezM
  • GezM
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07 August 2024 10:40:50
Just took a look at Canadian forecasts and even more amazing is Inuvik which is at 68'N and is forecast to reach 35C today and 34C tomorrow!
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2024 10:45:40
Meanwhile, very warm air over northern Norway has been advecting towards Svalbard recently. In fact it's been a "warm" July and August by their standards but temperatures are likely to peak over the next few days. Longyearbyen at 78'N is going to see 5 double digit nights in a row and could see maxima up to 20C according to the local forecast.
This is a mountainous area so I'm sure fohn conditions could push temperatures higher than this but it's unlikely that there'll be a local weather station to record it!
https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/1-2759929/Norway/Svalbard/Svalbard/Longyearbyen 
 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Retron
07 August 2024 11:23:05
22C at local midnight at Utqiakvik (formerly Barrow), the northernmost town in North America, is also remarkable.
https://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam/ 
Everything's built on permafrost there, and I'm sure they're hoping the temperatures get back down to normal before too long!

Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
08 August 2024 12:39:49

22C at local midnight at Utqiakvik (formerly Barrow), the northernmost town in North America, is also remarkable.
https://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam/ 
Everything's built on permafrost there, and I'm sure they're hoping the temperatures get back down to normal before too long!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


And 27C in Santa Claus, i see lot of tourists in shorts and summer gear under hte blazing azure blue skies, not a cloud seen.

How come the Arctic circle get many nice summer days and temperatures high, it might be higher on the display but still remarkable that the warmth persist in a place that barely see little sun in winter months.  
Gandalf The White
08 August 2024 12:59:01

And 27C in Santa Claus, i see lot of tourists in shorts and summer gear under hte blazing azure blue skies, not a cloud seen.

How come the Arctic circle get many nice summer days and temperatures high, it might be higher on the display but still remarkable that the warmth persist in a place that barely see little sun in winter months.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Partly because they get little darkness in the summer months, so more opportunity for the sun to warm the air/ground.  Then there’s climate change.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ozone_aurora
15 August 2024 08:01:23
Several quite potent thunderstorms in western Med in a cyclonic system, including the Balearics yesterday and a severe MCS off the S coast of France now (15 Aug 2024 @ 09.00 hrs), the sort that UK sometimes has at this time of the year.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2024 11:01:47
This is mentioned elsewhere but in case you are wondering why our skies have been very hazy/milky recently, here is the explanation ....
Smoke from wildfires across the Atlantic has brought spectacular vivid colours to sunsets and sunrises across the UK this weekend.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkm2vpy7g6o 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
19 August 2024 12:09:16

Several quite potent thunderstorms in western Med in a cyclonic system, including the Balearics yesterday and a severe MCS off the S coast of France now (15 Aug 2024 @ 09.00 hrs), the sort that UK sometimes has at this time of the year.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 




Severe weather - unconfirmed reports of a tornado - has sunk a 56m luxury yacht just off the coast of Sicily. 1 confirmed dead, 5 still missing (15 rescued - 3 seriously injured)





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ozone_aurora
19 August 2024 12:33:29

Severe weather - unconfirmed reports of a tornado - has sunk a 56m luxury yacht just off the coast of Sicily. 1 confirmed dead, 5 still missing (15 rescued - 3 seriously injured)


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Dreadful. :(

I noticed thunderstorms were in the central/northern Med lately, more like they have in October time.
Perthite1
19 August 2024 13:47:02
It appears a third SSW event is occurring over Antartica. Records only go back 60 years, but this is a first. I will post more on this in the next few days. Another wet evening here in Perth. We look almost certain for a wetter than average winter now which over the past few decades has not been a regular event. 
Jiries
19 August 2024 15:44:48

Several quite potent thunderstorms in western Med in a cyclonic system, including the Balearics yesterday and a severe MCS off the S coast of France now (15 Aug 2024 @ 09.00 hrs), the sort that UK sometimes has at this time of the year.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Yes it used to be at least 10 times thunderstorms in my area of Epsom before in the past 1 in May (sometimes April during heavy showers) 2 in June, 3 each in July and August and last one in September based on average plus heatwves events, some years get down to 5 and some more to 15 times,  still far less than 75 days average of storms in Toronto.   Last time I see proper storm was in Chicago 2014 and i was so enjoyed watching from the typical large front windows with small sash openings on both ends, I opened a little to hear the thunder noise.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 August 2024 07:22:06

Severe weather - unconfirmed reports of a tornado - has sunk a 56m luxury yacht just off the coast of Sicily. 1 confirmed dead, 5 still missing (15 rescued - 3 seriously injured)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


And the missing include some high-profile business people associated with Mike Lynch and his successful defence against the US Justice Dept, which is why it's making news, not that it isn't also a tragedy for the ordinary crew members missing and/or drowned.

Just unlucky, I guess. Waterspouts are usually local, and in this case other boats in the neighbourhood weren't (seriously) affected. Maybe if the Bayesian had moored 100m further on, the spout would have missed them.

But was a 240-foot mast on a 180-foot boat a piece of overambitious design? Once the yacht started tilting (and it happens - I've been on a small ferry boat with no mast for a frightening experience in a Mediterranean thunderstorm) that mast , however lightweight, would have exerted enormous leverage.

Photo of mast in article https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13758551/enormous-mast-trigger-superyacht-disaster-Sicilly.html


FWIW, and yes, it had different materials and profile, but  for comparison HMS Victory was 186 feet long (gundeck, 227feet overall) and and a 205 foot mast, but that had to have extra ballast added to correct a problem with listing to starboard [Wiki]
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Perthite1
01 September 2024 06:30:43

It appears a third SSW event is occurring over Antartica. Records only go back 60 years, but this is a first. I will post more on this in the next few days. Another wet evening here in Perth. We look almost certain for a wetter than average winter now which over the past few decades has not been a regular event. 

Originally Posted by: Perthite1 


425mm in Perth for the 3 months June to August beating the average of 398mm. The SSW events likely contributed to this as the winter started out dry. Other parts of Australia have seen extreme heat over the past couple of weeks. Days 15c above average have not been uncommon. SSW events have been associated with extreme heat and bushfires in Eastern Australia in particular as we head into Spring and Summer. We shall see what happens in the coming months. 
johncs2016
01 September 2024 06:43:40

425mm in Perth for the 3 months June to August beating the average of 398mm. The SSW events likely contributed to this as the winter started out dry. Other parts of Australia have seen extreme heat over the past couple of weeks. Days 15c above average have not been uncommon. SSW events have been associated with extreme heat and bushfires in Eastern Australia in particular as we head into Spring and Summer. We shall see what happens in the coming months. 

Originally Posted by: Perthite1 


Given those recent SSW events over Antarctica, it will interesting to see whether or not this might improve our chances of witnessing an SSW event up here in the Northern Hemisphere six months later, especially given that most of us on here know full well what that can potentially lead to during our own winter.

Of course, it might well be that those two events aren't connected to each other in any way, but this is something which Mark Vogan had touched on in a few of his recent videos on YouTube, so it will be interesting to see the outcome of that.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
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