There is zero evidence though that La Nina has any solid effect on temps and patterns on this side of the world. For example, there was a 3 year long running La Nina event (similar to the current one) in the mid-70s, yet most of the winter months within the period of that prolonged Nina event were mild or very mild:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

 

 

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According to this article, a very cold winter storm for this time of year is expected to hit Alberta and northern mid-west US states in next few days

Temperatures projected to be upto 50F (30c) below seasonal norms

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-season-2022-2023-arctic-outbreak-blizzard-snow-storm-forecast-united-states-canada-mk/ 

When I was growing up, my elderly neighbour, who was from the country and seemed to know every sign of old weather lore, was adamant that a serious snow storm in US would reach UK 2 weeks later and bring sleet or snow. If he was right then going to see cold last week of November

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20 NOV 2022



PlaceYearIndex value



1
2000
8600


2
1997
8905


3
1949
9061


4
2019



9088

The top four analogue years today each features a December CET of exactly 5.8C

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Not UK related but interesting nonetheless - major sea effect snow in the Swedish capital Stockholm over the past couple of days. At least the record-breaking warmth in Scandinavia has gone now. 

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Dec 2000 had a good ending!

 

 

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Fair point! It rather came out of nowhere, just in time for Christmas, and vanished with the New Year.

2000: Freezing Britain grinds to a halt

A blanket of snow has descended on the country as Arctic conditions wreak havoc on roads, rail and air services.






http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/29/newsid_2547000/2547421.stm 

Slipped to number 4 today though:

22 NOV 2022



PlaceYearIndex value



1
1997
7314


2
2019
8255


3
1960
8907


4
2000
8943

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A pleasing prospect as we approach December:

Weather Analogue Index (WAI)

24 NOV 2022

Place	Year	Index value
1	2000	7994
2	2009	8650

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Met Office blog by Professor Adam Scaife – Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction:

Winter 22/23 – Higher chance of colder start; milder come February

While there are indications in the long-range forecast that we could see some mild weather this winter, we are expecting a colder start. Our medium-range models are starting to indicate that high pressure will begin to dominate our region in December, increasing the potential for cold spells, although we could still see wet and windy weather at times as well as later in the winter (check our 30-day forecast).

...

As we head further through the winter the picture changes and current forecasts suggest that the risk of high pressure decreases in February, allowing more unsettled conditions to develop, with wet, windy, and mild spells more likely. This means that the chances of a very cold winter, comparable to 2009/10, are still low this winter.

 

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

 

 

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First 'sleet' symbol of season appearing next week on my BBC App for Glasgow with max 5dc.  What will it automate to nearer the time one wonders?  Rain and 8dc probably ! 

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Stav:   'potentially turning even colder into following week' 

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Well I could get used to this. 36 hours of frost on the ground here. Yesterday it went from -2 to +3 with clear sky and then down to -1 this morning. Feels very seasonal. Low lying fog on the Forth yesterday which spread into Leith last night, very atmospheric when we came out of the bar after the game.

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https://photos.app.goo.gl/9mJ2Qv2JpnHSWJ4YA 

The haar creeping into Edinburgh from The Forth on Tuesday afternoon.

Photo by Tom Duffin, Wee Photo's of Edinburgh

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The other day I noticed how around here in South Dorset the plastic roadside grit bins are all either broken/empty or overgrown with ivy and vegetation. I guess they've been abandoned because we haven't needed to use them in the past decade in this part of the world.
I live in a village where the access to the county town is via a D road. This means there is no requirement to grit it or even clear any snow/ice until the A, B and C roads are cleared. In 2010 during the last major snow event that lasted for a couple of weeks here, there was no attempt to clear this road and it was more or less impassible until it melted just after Christmas. The so called Beast a few years back only lasted a day or two before it melted because the sun was much stronger at that time of year.

I met up with friend last Saturday morning and he asked if I knew how close we've been to significant blackouts recently. Very very close he then said but it’s not widely published.
He used to work on the Bristol Channel power stations and keeps in close touch with developments/people in that field. It’s the renewable generational capacity that's the main issue. Not enough gas and nuclear backup. It’s certainly not as hunky dory as the Govt would like us to believe he says. It’s a real knife edge situation we’re already in in his opinion this year for the UK and the weather's is not even severe i.e snowy so far. But looking at the weather charts for the foreseeable and reading TWO’s take, if we do get significant snowfall and cold, it’s going to create greater impact (read deaths) than that hot spell in the summer did.
We just have to hope we can get away with localised planned blackouts and not a Black Start.

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That's a stunning picture. Absolutely love it 

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Thanks Martin

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First snow warning of winter issued

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:47 on Mon 5 Dec 2022

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather and icy conditions between 1800 on Wednesday 07 Dec and 0900 on Monday 12 Dec in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Rather cold conditions are expected to turn colder across much of the UK later Wednesday and through Thursday as air from the Arctic spreads south across the country. Very cold nights are expected, with widespread frosts and potentially severe frosts. Daytime temperatures persisting near or just above freezing, with overnight temperatures continuing to trend downwards. Wintry showers are also likely to affect some coasts, perhaps pushing into some inland areas at times, bringing a risk of icy patches.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

Yellow ice warning issued for parts of the east close to the coast from 6pm tomorrow to 12:00 Thursday

• Some disruption is likely due to icy surfaces
• What to expect
• Some injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces

Probably some icy patches on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths

Frequent wintry showers running down the east coast are likely to fall on frozen surfaces in places, leading to the formation of icy patches. These showers are likely to fall as snow on high ground, with the potential for a few centimetres to accumulate on the North York Moors.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-07&id=f8266282-3a5f-4d9d-a25d-0201b9def940&details 

London has activated the Severe Weather Emergency Protocol with temperatures forecast to drop to -3

As I write, the third official air frost of this winter has now been recorded at Edinburgh Gogarbank with the temperature down to -1.4°C as at 4am GMT (04:00 UTC) this morning.

We haven't yet had any snow here and haven't even come close to getting any snow here as per usual, going by other recent winters.

However,  this means that despite the fact that we are only just over a week into this winter, we have already had as many air frosts during this winter as what we had during the entire months of January and February put together.

In terms of the minimum temperatures, this winter is therefore starting off on a much colder note than what last winter did and I can have no complaints about that.

Apart from the usual lack of snow though, our daytime maximum temperatures are very much also letting this winter down as we have still to record a maximum temperature of less than 5.7°C at Edinburgh Gogarbank during this winter.

One of the main factors which determine whether or not we are experiencing a "decent" winter overall in my books is that it should be colder than average overall but until those daytime maximum temperatures come down a bit, that isn't really going to happen.

However, if you take into consideration the very hot summer which we had this year and the fact that this was followed by an exceptionally mild autumn, I would bet you that very few people would have expected us to anything more than a snowball's chance in hell of us getting a cold winter just now, especially with all of the ongoing issues regarding climate change.

In addition to that, all of the northern blocking which is around just now and which had led into this relatively cold start to the winter is happening despite all of the warmer than average SSTs which are around us in the Atlantic Ocean and North Sea, and despite the fact that we are also in a westerly QBO.

Those are two factors which would normally be expected to go against us getting a cold winter, so we're not actually doing too badly when you take all of that into consideration.

EDIT

Forget what I was saying about a lack of snow here, as it is now snowing here as I write with that snow now lying.

This winter is getting better over time at the moment and hopefully, that trend will continue.
 

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People on the lowest incomes in over 300 postcode area across Cumbria, North East and North West England, West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester, Birmingham, Coventry, Staffordshire and Brecon will receive a £25 Cold Weather Payment from the Government.


You can check your postcode here https://coldweatherpayments.dwp.gov.uk/search.php 

You can check if you're eligible for the payment here https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment/eligibility 
 

£25 wouldn't even pay for two days' electricity in winter.

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I've just noticed that the temperature in New York over in America was a very mild 9°C as at 6pm EST (11pm GMT or 23:00 UTC) this evening with double figures temperatures and possibly some rain being forecast in that part of the world in the next couple of days.

The reason why I mentioned that is of course, because Gavin P. is over there just now.

He had mentioned in a few of his most recent videos that he was going over there, hoping to get some cold weather but as it has turned out, he has now ended up with the same very mild weather which we were basically getting all the time over here during last winter.

That I'm sure, is not exactly something which Gavin P. is likely to be all that chuffed about, especially since it has now become a lot colder here.

However, he is a member of this forum and there is a small chance that he could be reading this from the other side of the Pond just now so if he is, I hope that he is enjoying his trip and his well deserved rest anyway, regardless of what the weather is doing.
 

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Level 3 cold weather alert across England extended until December 16th

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert 

I think this Winter has been fantastic.

Got/Had my snow fix, that's enough for me!

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