as others have said, Sod’s law will dictate a bitter, easterly dominated winter with heavy snowfall and daytime maximums barely above freezing.

Edit:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-son-v1.pdf

 

That,s a real winter to have.

---

 

Here's hoping!

Regarding your second point - I always seem to see every year a large number of people seem to suggest how a cold and wet September often leads to a cold Winter, but I'm not sure if I've ever been convinced by this. A bit of a desktop survey - the years below are Septembers since 1900 with a CET of below 1.0 of the 61-90 average and also the wettest ones of those years. 

After each year I've then listed that following Winters CET and its anomaly against the 61-90 average.

1918 - 4.0 (+0.1)
1923 - 3.9 (-0.2)
1925 - 4.7 (+0.6)
1927 - 4.3 (+0.2)
1928 - 1.7 (-2.4)
1931 - 4.9 (+0.8)
1944 - 3.6 (-0.5)
1952 - 3.4 (-0.7)
1957 - 4.2 (+0.1)
1962 --0.3 (-4.4)
1965 - 4.4 (+0.3)
1974 - 6.4 (+2.3)
1993 - 4.6 (+0.5)

 

 

^I personally struggle to see any major correlation. And I stick to my view that this whole cool wet Septembers lead to a higher than average chance of a more colder Winter than normal is sometimes a bit misleading or confusing - though someone may well wish to correct me on this. 

(What also sometimes confuses me is, why do people specifically choose September anyway? Wouldn't October or November's synoptics and statistics, 2 months which are far closer to the Winter, offer more of an insight rather than a 30 day period of 1st September to 30th September which is over 60 days from the start of Winter and over 100 days before mid-Winter?)

Its much the same as other weather lore, where it is difficult sometimes to see a connection. Yet much weather lore is often based on the real observations of a an observer. Yet weather lore often was wrong: why?

I think some particular weather lores were probably relevant for the prevailing long term synoptics of the time and when a change occurred, so did the accuracy of the weather lores.

I wonder if any research has been done in this area?

 

---

 

Here's hoping!

Regarding your second point - I always seem to see every year a large number of people seem to suggest how a cold and wet September often leads to a cold Winter, but I'm not sure if I've ever been convinced by this. A bit of a desktop survey - the years below are Septembers since 1900 with a CET of below 1.0 of the 61-90 average and also the wettest ones of those years. 

After each year I've then listed that following Winters CET and its anomaly against the 61-90 average.

1918 - 4.0 (+0.1)
1923 - 3.9 (-0.2)
1925 - 4.7 (+0.6)
1927 - 4.3 (+0.2)
1928 - 1.7 (-2.4)
1931 - 4.9 (+0.8)
1944 - 3.6 (-0.5)
1952 - 3.4 (-0.7)
1957 - 4.2 (+0.1)
1962 --0.3 (-4.4)
1965 - 4.4 (+0.3)
1974 - 6.4 (+2.3)
1993 - 4.6 (+0.5)

 

 

^I personally struggle to see any major correlation. And I stick to my view that this whole cool wet Septembers lead to a higher than average chance of a more colder Winter than normal is sometimes a bit misleading or confusing - though someone may well wish to correct me on this. 

(What also sometimes confuses me is, why do people specifically choose September anyway? Wouldn't October or November's synoptics and statistics, 2 months which are far closer to the Winter, offer more of an insight rather than a 30 day period of 1st September to 30th September which is over 60 days from the start of Winter and over 100 days before mid-Winter?)

1986 was colder than some of these Septembers too.

Looking at the current coldest Septembers on HadCET since 1900 and something, , they are (with following winters listed after):

1952  10.7   (3.4)

1912  11.1   (5.3)

1986   11.3 (3.5)

1931   11.5  (4.9)

1972   11.7  (4.9)

1918  11.9 (4.0)

1974  12.0  (6.4)

So actually a slightly mid pattern. As with all of this, you can find data for and against.

Warm Septembers followed by a cold winter would also be a good thing to check.

 

 

 

---

 

1986 was colder than some of these Septembers too.

Looking at the current coldest Septembers on HadCET since 1900 and something, , they are (with following winters listed after):

1952  10.7   (3.4)

1912  11.1   (5.3)

1986   11.3 (3.5)

1931   11.5  (4.9)

1972   11.7  (4.9)

1918  11.9 (4.0)

1974  12.0  (6.4)

So actually a slightly mid pattern. As with all of this, you can find data for and against.

Warm Septembers followed by a cold winter would also be a good thing to check.

 

 

 

 

Hi Bert, thanks for your reply! Yes, September 1986 certainly came into my head as it was a very famous one and within the top 15 coldest on record but it was ridiculously dry too hence why I omitted it off this list of cold and wet Septembers.

 

1986 was colder than some of these Septembers too.

Looking at the current coldest Septembers on HadCET since 1900 and something, , they are (with following winters listed after):

1952  10.7   (3.4)

1912  11.1   (5.3)

1986   11.3 (3.5)

1931   11.5  (4.9)

1972   11.7  (4.9)

1918  11.9 (4.0)

1974  12.0  (6.4)

So actually a slightly mid pattern. As with all of this, you can find data for and against.

Warm Septembers followed by a cold winter would also be a good thing to check.

 

 

 

 

There has never been a cold winter following a warm/hot september with a CET of 15c or more. Last year being a classic case

 

There has never been a cold winter following a warm/hot september with a CET of 15c or more. Last year being a classic case

 

15C - I suspect you may have meant 16'C instead?

 

There have been a total of 7 Septembers with CET's of above 16'C - none of these yielded a cold Winter - listed below are the Winters following those 16+ Summers. As for 15'C+ Septembers there's a huge chunk of them but I'm fairly sure a few of them yielded a cold Winter - 1678 for example had a September of 15'0 CET but the following Winter was CET 1.0.

1796 6.2
2022 5.9
2017 5.4
1866 5.4
1950 5.1
1730 4.6
2007 6.5

But why? Why would a specific 30-day period that is entirely a human construct of time, separated by 61 days, have any effect on the natural weather patterns of a 90-day season, that is again defined by dates that are entirely human constructions? The fact that any September with a CET above 16°C has yet to provide a below average winter (given that there's only about 6 or 7 of them anyway in a 360-odd year dataset) is merely a coincidence - there is absolutely no causation in it whatsoever. And yes, you can say that because you can find coincidences every where you look.

This theory about warm Septembers and mild winters gets peddled every year and it never ceases to drive me mad. We really need a good record warm, 17°C+ September to be followed by a below average winter to put this rubbish to bed.

---

But why? Why would a specific 30-day period that is entirely a human construct of time, separated by 61 days, have any effect on the natural weather patterns of a 90-day season, that is again defined by dates that are entirely human constructions? The fact that any September with a CET above 16°C has yet to provide a below average winter (given that there's only about 6 or 7 of them anyway in a 360-odd year dataset) is merely a coincidence - there is absolutely no causation in it whatsoever. And yes, you can say that because you can find coincidences every where you look.

This theory about warm Septembers and mild winters gets peddled every year and it never ceases to drive me mad. We really need a good record warm, 17°C+ September to be followed by a below average winter to put this rubbish to bed.

 

I agree Bolty - see my first post in this thread regarding the cool/wet Septembers theory - I included some statistics that suggest it's just all a bit mythical rather than having any correlation.

 

I also pre-echoed almost word for word what you said -^ "Why would a specific 30-day period that is entirely a human construct of time, separated by 61 days, have any effect on the natural weather patterns of a 90-day season" - I completely agree and we're both in the same boat!

Looking at it simplisticly. What happened the winter following any previous droughts? My general thoughts are that you need to go back further than "modern averages"
My suspicion is that 76 isn't the match and there's a longer back similar set up.

---

I’ve always read in here more so about warm and dry Octobers having a more interesting correlation to below average winters temp wise.

Not even sure who put this September theory out there, but the fact Met office use similar theoretical ideas to match the preceding month of May’s NAO index (almost 200 days before winter) makes it just as credible/ non credible.

Model output plus what has happened so far this September suggest a possibility that Sept 2022 might finish wetter than average for much of the country. Historically there has been a significant difference between the winter CET following a dry August depending on whether September is wet or dry.
Group 1: 1976, 1981, 1984, 1995 - following winter CETs 3.2, 2.4, 2.7, 3.0 respectively, all 4 Septembers wet
Group 2: 1947, 1959, 1991, 2003 - following winter CETs 5.1, 4.6, 4.5, 4.7 respectively, all 4 Septembers dry

Thanks for that, John. Extending the analogues to two consecutive months at least suggests that we might be looking at an ongoing global pattern here. And that it might extend into the winter.

So, more rain this month, please! I really like the look of that Group 1 there.

---

After a fairly wet and stormy September here so far, we’re currently in group 1 but looking decidedly dry now for the foreseeable so slipping into group 2.

But why? Why would a specific 30-day period that is entirely a human construct of time, separated by 61 days, have any effect on the natural weather patterns of a 90-day season, that is again defined by dates that are entirely human constructions? The fact that any September with a CET above 16°C has yet to provide a below average winter (given that there's only about 6 or 7 of them anyway in a 360-odd year dataset) is merely a coincidence - there is absolutely no causation in it whatsoever. And yes, you can say that because you can find coincidences every where you look.

This theory about warm Septembers and mild winters gets peddled every year and it never ceases to drive me mad. We really need a good record warm, 17°C+ September to be followed by a below average winter to put this rubbish to bed.

 

We do tend to get 'stuck' in certain broad, recurring patterns for months at a time (might be zonal, or northern blocking, or mid-Atlantic blocking, or the Jet being displaced to the north allowing ridging from the south, etc, etc)

Every year is different with different driving/teleconnecting factors, but it may be that certain patterns established in any particular month have a higher likelihood of repeating for the next few/several. I think that's where a lot of weather lore derives from, too.

As for looking at records (temp, rainfall, etc) for a specific month doesn't tell the full story. Very different broad set-ups can yield very similar temp/rainfall records. That's why I think raw records data can be a useful place to start, but one needs to examine the actual pervading weather set-up patterns for each year to get a more detailed picture to build on.

 

---

But why? Why would a specific 30-day period that is entirely a human construct of time, separated by 61 days, have any effect on the natural weather patterns of a 90-day season, that is again defined by dates that are entirely human constructions? The fact that any September with a CET above 16°C has yet to provide a below average winter (given that there's only about 6 or 7 of them anyway in a 360-odd year dataset) is merely a coincidence - there is absolutely no causation in it whatsoever. And yes, you can say that because you can find coincidences every where you look.

This theory about warm Septembers and mild winters gets peddled every year and it never ceases to drive me mad. We really need a good record warm, 17°C+ September to be followed by a below average winter to put this rubbish to bed.

---

Well for this region it looks like it will be a warm September, becoming a cold September and definitely a dry September if the charts are to be believed so good luck with pattern matching that!

---

Every year is different with different driving/teleconnecting factors, but it may be that certain patterns established in any particular month have a higher likelihood of repeating for the next few/several. I think that's where a lot of weather lore derives from, too.

That's my view too. Some of the forcing mechanisms stay in place for many months.

---

 

That's my view too. Some of the forcing mechanisms stay in place for many months.

The Little Ice Age is an example of this. The blocking high pressure also caused summer heatwaves. The 2 September 1666 Great Fire of London was able to establish itself thanks to the preceding period of hot, dry, north-easterlies. Yet the subsequent winter saw the Thames freeze.

---

 

That's my view too. Some of the forcing mechanisms stay in place for many months.

And my view too!

Are you talking here primarily, about the pressure patterns?

Why or what causes them to stay in place? What changes? Any view on this?

---

 

The Little Ice Age is an example of this. The blocking high pressure also caused summer heatwaves. The 2 September 1666 Great Fire of London was able to establish itself thanks to the preceding period of hot, dry, north-easterlies. Yet the subsequent winter saw the Thames freeze.

A temporary more continental climate in such times! 'Temporary' meaning anything from a couple of weeks to many decades. The pressure pattern is responding to something, so, what might the driver of this be?

---