I've given up on this winter now.

Not saying 'winter is over' and there may well be some snow to come, but all enthusiasm has drained from me.

I still say, also, that snow and cold in the lead up to and over Xmas is the nirvana.

But I'd also love to experience a real snow-mageddon event, with at least 30cm of snow over the whole country, which would be totally paralysed for several days.

Conversely, this is about the time I start to get interested,  the modern winter snow season is now early February to mid March in these parts.

I've given up on this winter now.

Not saying 'winter is over' and there may well be some snow to come, but all enthusiasm has drained from me.

I still say, also, that snow and cold in the lead up to and over Xmas is the nirvana.

But I'd also love to experience a real snow-mageddon event, with at least 30cm of snow over the whole country, which would be totally paralysed for several days.

Although we're well over the halfway mark now, even down here there's another 4 weeks or so where you can get proper snow, without the dreaded drip-drip-drip (and without relying on record low uppers for the time of year, as happened in 2018). The next 10 days or so looks like a write-off, but beyond that who knows?

As for March, it's pretty rare here and doesn't hang around for long. April onwards, forget it - the last time there was snow on the ground here in April was nearly 40 years ago!

Storm Corrie named by the Met Office for late tomorrow and into Monday, bringing another spell of strong winds

Yes, I've just seen that post on the Met Office Twitter feed which confirms that.

That will now be the second named storm in just a few days so it is nice to see the weather finally livening up in a winter which has been largely dominated by high pressure up until now, along with boring and uninteresting weather.

It's just a shame that we can't get any actual "winter" weather during this actual winter (i.e. snow, ice and frost (I know that England has had its fair share of frost just recently, but we have had virtually nothing on that front here in Scotland during that time)).

I would normally start a completely new and separate thread for any seasonal statistics, but this thread appears to be an appropriate place for that in this instance.

Given below, are the final winter statistics for Edinburgh Gogarbank from all of the data which I have available which are:

Temperature (°C):

Lowest Min: -4.4 (on 11/2/22)
Highest Min: 10.7 (on 1/1/22)
Mean Min: 3.1
Min. Anomaly: +1.5

Lowest Max: 1.0 (on 22/12/21)
Highest Max: 14.2 (on 1/1/22)
Mean Max: 8.0
Max. Anomaly: +0.8

Ave. Temp.: 5.5
Temp. Anomaly: +1.2

Other Temperature Statistics

Nights with minus double digits temperatures 0
Single Figures Maximum Temperatures 61
Single Figures Minimum Temperatures 81
Double Figures Maximum Temperatures 29
Double Figures Minimum Temperatures 1

Number of Frosts

Ground Frosts 26
Air Frosts: 8 (26.9% of 1991-2020 winter average)
Ice Days: 0

Snow Depths (cm)

Highest Snow Depth Broken Layer
Days With Lying Snow 1

Rainfall (mm):

Total For Winter 205.2 (98.2% of 1991-2020 winter average)
Wettest Day: 21.4 (on 13/2/22)
Rain Days: 39 (105.2% of 1991-2020 winter average)
Dry Days: 31
Longest Dry Spell: 9 days (19/1 to 27/1)
Highest Number of Days without a single dry day: 22 days (3/2 to 24/2)

Month With Lowest Rainfall Amount January 2022: 24.2 (33.1% of 1991-2020 winter average)
Month With Highest Rainfall Amount February 2022: 121.4 (198.8% of 1991-2020 winter average)

Month With Fewest Rain Days January 2022: 7.0 (52.6% of 1991-2020 winter average)
Month With Most Rain Days February 2022: 18.0 (168.2% of 1991-2020 winter average)

Wind Speed (mph)

Lowest Mean Wind Speed 0.0 (on 6/12/21)
Average Mean Wind Speed 11.4 (123.1% of 1991-2020 winter average)
Highest Mean Wind Speed 41.4 (on 29/1/22)
Highest Wind Gust 69.0 (on 29/1/22)

Pressure (mb)

Lowest Pressure 968.8 (on 8/12/21)
Average Pressure 1011.0
Highest Pressure 1042.2 (on 17/12/21)

Sunshine Total (hrs)

Total For Winter 157.6 (96.9% of 1991-2020 winter average)
Sunniest Day: 9.4 (on 27/2/22)
Sunless Days: 33

Dullest Month December 2021: 22.2 (58.8% of 1991-2020 winter average)
Sunniest Month February 2022: 78.6 (101.4% of 1991-2020 winter average)

Conclusion:

A very poor and abysmal winter overall in terms of snow and in terms of frost, it just got even worse over time with just the one air frost being recorded during the whole of February.

It was a very mild winter overall with all three winter months being milder than average.

It was a slightly drier than average winter overall in terms of the actual rainfall amounts, but a slightly wetter than winter in terms of the number of rain days and the winter of 2021-2022.was also slightly duller than average overall although December was its only duller than average month.

This winter overall was so poor that I came very close to giving it 0/10, but we did get a little bit of snow towards the end of February and because of that, I am going to give it 1/10 although even that is very generous indeed.

The irony for me is that this morning our cars were frosted up (first time in a number of weeks)

It's been a really poor winter. Started off with some promise with early snow in late November and many pundits talking about good underlying global conditions for a potential decent winter here. The models were dangling glittery carrots in December, but then turned Grinch and cruelly whipped them away. Since then, there's not even been any MO wild goose chases.

Here's hoping we have a good summer - log spells of dry, sunny, warm weather 

I'll give the Winter a disappointing 5 out of 10. It would've been a 4 but a lovely day of snow a couple of weeks ago pushed it up a place. 

Overall poor but there have certainly been worse Winters here in recent times. We had 4 snowfalls, quite a few frosts and some lovely cold crisp Winter days. The pre Christmas anti cyclonic gloom spell was a test for the patience but aside from the horrific mild of New Year it's been a reasonably chilly Winter.

Last Winter was superb, so compared to that very disappointing but 19/20 was dreadful and much worse than this Winter.

I've already recorded more air frosts this March (and it's only the 6th yet) than I did during the entirety of the Winter (DJF)

I had a look at our Gavin's analysis of May 2022 N Atlantic sea surface temps last night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K96ToZvZIH0

I know that this has become rather discredited as a forecasting tool these days (the idea that May SST anomalies in the N Atlantic predict the ones prevailing the next winter), but Gav does show some good examples where it's worked out startlingly well - May/Dec 2010 is an outstanding one. 

It wasn't a clear-cut picture in May this year. Gav suggests 1995 as a close-ish analogue, and I think we'd all settle for a winter like 1995/6 if offered it now. Not an all-time great one, but a proper winter none the less.

But it's not quite there, and it's quite amusing watching Gav trying to come down on one side or another. Having slept on it, I think it's fair to conclude that we're definitely not lumbered with a full-blown positive 'tripole' (which really does seem to preclude a cold winter), so at this stage you'd be justified in predicting a more wintry season this year than the one 2021/2 offered us.

I had a look at our Gavin's analysis of May 2022 N Atlantic sea surface temps last night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K96ToZvZIH0

I know that this has become rather discredited as a forecasting tool these days (the idea that May SST anomalies in the N Atlantic predict the ones prevailing the next winter), but Gav does show some good examples where it's worked out startlingly well - May/Dec 2010 is an outstanding one. 

It wasn't a clear-cut picture in May this year. Gav suggests 1995 as a close-ish analogue, and I think we'd all settle for a winter like 1995/6 if offered it now. Not an all-time great one, but a proper winter none the less.

But it's not quite there, and it's quite amusing watching Gav trying to come down on one side or another. Having slept on it, I think it's fair to conclude that we're definitely not lumbered with a full-blown positive 'tripole' (which really does seem to preclude a cold winter), so at this stage you'd be justified in predicting a more wintry season this year than the one 2021/2 offered us.

Great post. Very observant.

The signs for something colder than last winter are indeed there. I feel we’re in for something of a seasonal early part of winter, with a lot of attention toward catastrophic warming & cancel culture/ winter perhaps getting a cold slap in the face come December. 

 

Great post. Very observant.

The signs for something colder than last winter are indeed there. I feel we’re in for something of a seasonal early part of winter, with a lot of attention toward catastrophic warming & cancel culture/ winter perhaps getting a cold slap in the face come December. 

Western Europe has been dragging warm up up from Africa which has distorted conversations to hot side.

However Scandinavia, Iceland and most of central Russia are colder or about normal.  There is an area in Northern Russia that is warmer at the moment, but can easily discount that as it will fall rapidly as sun moves south in Autumn.

So if anything northwards of UK is colder than average, and cold winter weather comes from North or East (from Russia area) then does seem logical could be colder than average

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

I wouldn't be suprised if we has a very cold snowy winter. Our weather can be most freaky when you least expect it. and nature has a way

of wrong footing even the best models, and not meaning to get all biblical about this, but isn't the world going through unusual tough times

i.e drought, forest fires, unusual hot weather, very high tensions between countries and more wars? There's more to it than meets the eye!

I wouldn't be suprised if we has a very cold snowy winter. Our weather can be most freaky when you least expect it. and nature has a way

of wrong footing even the best models, and not meaning to get all biblical about this, but isn't the world going through unusual tough times

i.e drought, forest fires, unusual hot weather, very high tensions between countries and more wars? There's more to it than meets the eye!

Are the likely gas and/or electricity shortages this winter a modern day parallel to the coal shortages of late 1946? Nature does have a habit of sticking the boot in with really bad winters when the country can least afford it! 

I wouldn't be suprised if we has a very cold snowy winter. Our weather can be most freaky when you least expect it. and nature has a way

of wrong footing even the best models, and not meaning to get all biblical about this, but isn't the world going through unusual tough times

i.e drought, forest fires, unusual hot weather, very high tensions between countries and more wars? There's more to it than meets the eye!

What catches my eye and as I posted a few weeks ago (see (here) is the North Atlantic synoptics continuing to mimic those prevailing in the 50's, 60's, and 70's..

It would also seem that September could well in my view, according to the forecasts, turn wet and cooler than normal, which is another sign that winter might well be more wintry than we have seen for some time.

Interesting autumn in store?

 

What catches my eye and as I posted a few weeks ago (see (here) is the North Atlantic synoptics continuing to mimic those prevailing in the 50's, 60's, and 70's..

It would also seem that September could well in my view, according to the forecasts, turn wet and cooler than normal, which is another sign that winter might well be more wintry than we have seen for some time.

Interesting autumn in store?

Here's hoping!

Regarding your second point - I always seem to see every year a large number of people seem to suggest how a cold and wet September often leads to a cold Winter, but I'm not sure if I've ever been convinced by this. A bit of a desktop survey - the years below are Septembers since 1900 with a CET of below 1.0 of the 61-90 average and also the wettest ones of those years. 

After each year I've then listed that following Winters CET and its anomaly against the 61-90 average.

1918 - 4.0 (+0.1)
1923 - 3.9 (-0.2)
1925 - 4.7 (+0.6)
1927 - 4.3 (+0.2)
1928 - 1.7 (-2.4)
1931 - 4.9 (+0.8)
1944 - 3.6 (-0.5)
1952 - 3.4 (-0.7)
1957 - 4.2 (+0.1)
1962 --0.3 (-4.4)
1965 - 4.4 (+0.3)
1974 - 6.4 (+2.3)
1993 - 4.6 (+0.5)

^I personally struggle to see any major correlation. And I stick to my view that this whole cool wet Septembers lead to a higher than average chance of a more colder Winter than normal is sometimes a bit misleading or confusing - though someone may well wish to correct me on this. 

(What also sometimes confuses me is, why do people specifically choose September anyway? Wouldn't October or November's synoptics and statistics, 2 months which are far closer to the Winter, offer more of an insight rather than a 30 day period of 1st September to 30th September which is over 60 days from the start of Winter and over 100 days before mid-Winter?)

 

Here's hoping!

Regarding your second point - I always seem to see every year a large number of people seem to suggest how a cold and wet September often leads to a cold Winter, but I'm not sure if I've ever been convinced by this. A bit of a desktop survey - the years below are Septembers since 1900 with a CET of below 1.0 of the 61-90 average and also the wettest ones of those years. 

After each year I've then listed that following Winters CET and its anomaly against the 61-90 average.

1918 - 4.0 (+0.1)
1923 - 3.9 (-0.2)
1925 - 4.7 (+0.6)
1927 - 4.3 (+0.2)
1928 - 1.7 (-2.4)
1931 - 4.9 (+0.8)
1944 - 3.6 (-0.5)
1952 - 3.4 (-0.7)
1957 - 4.2 (+0.1)
1962 --0.3 (-4.4)
1965 - 4.4 (+0.3)
1974 - 6.4 (+2.3)
1993 - 4.6 (+0.5)

 

 

^I personally struggle to see any major correlation. And I stick to my view that this whole cool wet Septembers lead to a higher than average chance of a more colder Winter than normal is sometimes a bit misleading or confusing - though someone may well wish to correct me on this. 

(What also sometimes confuses me is, why do people specifically choose September anyway? Wouldn't October or November's synoptics and statistics, 2 months which are far closer to the Winter, offer more of an insight rather than a 30 day period of 1st September to 30th September which is over 60 days from the start of Winter and over 100 days before mid-Winter?)

BTW,
anyone have any data on this years reading?

Winter is a long way off yet, but my initial thoughts are that I hope it’s the mildest, driest and sunniest on record

Mild and sunny don’t go together in winter, but a girl can dream 💅

Edit:

checking yesterdays update to Met office contingency planners: We are in for a quiet Autumn, with average temps. Dry south east, wet north west…

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-son-v1.pdf