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scillydave
02 November 2021 16:08:28
Saint this thread is a banging idea 😁
I've spent a good portion of my adult life lurking around the threads of TWO, especially in winter and it's the prospect of snow above all else that excites me.
I come to TWO for the excellent analysis but also because there are like minded people who don't think it's strange to obsess endlessly about the white stuff!
We all know that the chances of decent snow in any given winter are low but part of the fun is the chase and getting caught up in the excitement - it wouldn't be fun if it happened all the time.

So a plea to the "winter is over' fans and the 'it'll never happen' people - let us enjoy our daydreams and snow ramps; we know deep down they're unlikely to come true but there's no need to rain (as it were) on our parade.

Here's to a Dickensian winter everyone!


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
moomin75
02 November 2021 19:04:46

Well from Mr Captain of Doom, Moomin, AKA Gloomin, I have a sneaky feeling that this winter is going to deliver. Call it gut feeling, or a feeling in my bones, but the atmosphere just looks more akin to supporting interesting synoptic this winter.
If it does go pear shaped, you have my word I will not be whingeing and whining, but I do think we will see some notable cold this coming winter.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Notty
02 November 2021 20:15:50

Saint this thread is a banging idea 😁
I've spent a good portion of my adult life lurking around the threads of TWO, especially in winter and it's the prospect of snow above all else that excites me.
I come to TWO for the excellent analysis but also because there are like minded people who don't think it's strange to obsess endlessly about the white stuff!
We all know that the chances of decent snow in any given winter are low but part of the fun is the chase and getting caught up in the excitement - it wouldn't be fun if it happened all the time.

So a plea to the "winter is over' fans and the 'it'll never happen' people - let us enjoy our daydreams and snow ramps; we know deep down they're unlikely to come true but there's no need to rain (as it were) on our parade.

Here's to a Dickensian winter everyone!

Originally Posted by: scillydave 


 


Hear Hear


My bones are telling me that this year is different :)


We have had a couple of topsy turvy years as far as the seasons go and I didn’t see ANY snow last winter.


The Atlantic is quiet, the trees are rammed full with berries so I’m looking forward to an entertaining chase to take my mind of the dark winter nights.


Roll on the Stella Pub Runs :)


Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Hungry Tiger
03 November 2021 14:58:26

As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February.



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Essan
03 November 2021 15:41:45


We had none in Nov 2010! But I'd take that spell again in a heartbeat. 


To be honest, the holy grail for me is a cold & snowy spell in the lead up to, and over Xmas. We got that in both 2009 & 2010 (just made it past Xmas Day on both occasions, the thaw winning on 27th and 28th Dec respectively). Was pretty deep snow both times, too. If I get that, I'm fine with the rest of the winter not being up to much


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 ....  

But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day     Preferably just lasting through till New year.   Don't need any other snow if that happens.   But it won't .....


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Brian Gaze
03 November 2021 16:26:32




Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 ....  

But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day     Preferably just lasting through till New year.   Don't need any other snow if that happens.   But it won't .....


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Essan
03 November 2021 18:57:55


Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



No, we had nothing here in Dec 2009 - no snow on the ground that winter until January .... (when we did get plenty)  whereas December 2010 was snowmaggedon

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/01/2nd-january-2010-todays-news-britain.html 

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/12/20th-december-todays-news-record-low.html 





Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Whether Idle
03 November 2021 18:58:07


Whatever happens it will be on a knife edge and more runs will, I'm sure, be needed. 


Originally Posted by: westv 


An excellent contribution.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
westv
03 November 2021 18:58:45


As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February.



Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?


 


laughinglaughing


At least it will be mild!
Whether Idle
03 November 2021 19:00:42


 


February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?


 


laughinglaughing


Originally Posted by: westv 


Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th.  Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
03 November 2021 19:04:28
Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.
Essan
03 November 2021 19:05:05

As I recall, most years, Winter Is Over, occurs every year in early December     If the models do not predict 20 days of snowfall in London by the middle of December, that's it 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Whether Idle
03 November 2021 19:09:44

Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
03 November 2021 19:40:18


 


WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Oi, there’s no rooms for pesky things like facts in here. 


Gandalf The White
03 November 2021 20:14:06

Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen?


But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
03 November 2021 20:18:16


 


I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen?


But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works ).


Gandalf The White
03 November 2021 21:59:33


 


Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works ).


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It reminds me of this set of cartoons about the weather in Seattle…



 






Source: https://theoatmeal.com/blog/seattle_weather


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
03 November 2021 22:49:47


 


Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th.  Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


You're talking out of your hoop. 


The White flag does not get raised around that time. 


Mid-January is when focus shifts to talking about 1947.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
BJBlake
03 November 2021 23:51:21

Anyway - back to the thread: Yes - my bones are aching with pending cold too...With a westerly QBO, a weakfish La Niña, the first winter after the Maunder Minimum, signs of an amplified jet, possible negative NAO, the chances of cold incursions and a locked in blocking pattern emerging are never going to be higher: Yes - if it can happen - it should happen this year. Fingers, legs and eyes crossed... I’m going for a rear-guard (in the face of pending warming in excess of 1.5 degrees ref climate change) rip-roarer of a winter, to send Truimpites for their denial scripts. 


I’ll be happy just to see unsalted and hard pack snow on my lane - like those days of old, unmelted for days...and memorable forecasts of sub 492 DAM air heading over the North Sea towards us, towering snow clouds, like Jan 1987, amid a McKasgillesk narrative of snow on snow - a la 1991...bring it on.


Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Robertski
04 November 2021 08:18:03

Where as I am thinking we need the strat to work for us as a La Nina will probably put us on the wrong side of the jet, with a possible slug shaped high pressure in the mid Atlantic effecting us.

So for me looks milder, but maybe with some colder spells as the jet buckles, hope Im talking rubbish and im wrong.

I think the strat warming will be key...

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