Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
This has been a remarkable year with the first 10 months all being warmer than average. Will November buck the trend or is it a case of more of the same?
Computer models are showing anomalously warm air moving over the UK during the second week of the month. The London GEFS plot below shows air temperatures at 1500m above sea level climbing to about 10C by 12th November. That is a massive 9C above the 30 year mean. Quite exceptional.
At this time of the year warm air aloft does not necessarily ensure it will be mild at the surface. The long nights coupled with calm conditions under high pressure mean the ground can cool very quickly. Also, temperatures may be suppressed by fog lingering well into the days. With that said, it does look like turning notably mild or even warm and during the second half of next week 18C (64F) could be reached.
Would this be classified as an Indian Summer? Technically a widespread frost is supposed to have occurred before the late season warmth so in some people's eyes this wouldn't qualify.
The GEFS chart above signals a change in the longer term. Recent updates have consistently shown air mass temperatures trending downwards from around the 13th November and becoming close to the norm by the last third of the month. However, there are a few runs in the model which are keeping the exceptional warmth in place, so I wouldn't full discount that scenario yet.
The GEFS pressure forecast below shows a very wide spread of outcomes from mid-month. By the 19th November, as far as the chart goes, the pressure range is from approximately 1040mB at the top of the ensemble to 975mB at the bottom.
The rest of the runs don't diverge so spectacularly, nonetheless there are big differences on offer. It is very difficult to be confident about how things will develop at this range. Based on the current data I would suggest the last third of the month brings an increasing chance of colder and / or more changeable periods as high pressure starts to move.
The first two thirds of November will probably be significantly milder than the 30 year norm. Even though there are some indications of it turning colder in the last third of the month it is unlikely to be enough to offset the earlier warmth.
Therefore, although it is very early days the computer models are suggesting it will be 11/11 months which have been warmer than the norm this year. If that's the case it will be all eyes on December to see whether it can spoil the party.
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