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Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
During the next couple of days there will be a lot of fine and warm weather. However, a transition to a cooler and more changeable period then begins to take place.
Wednesday is looking mostly dry and warm with temperatures peaking at close to 27C (81F).
Thursday brings more of the same to many places and if anything it could be even warmer. However, there is a growing risk of showers, particularly in southern and central counties. An odd one could be heavy and thundery.
GFS 06Z forecast maximum temperatures on 23rd June, 2022
The extent of the forecast warmth is quite impressive. Even parts of northern Scotland may reach 25C (77F) if the GFS model is close to the mark.
The transition to a cooler and more changeable period starts to take shape on Friday. The GEFS plot below shows 850hPa temperatures (top half of the plot) dipping and by the weekend they are below the 30 year average.
The cooler pattern continues for several days, but by 29th June a significant minority of the runs show it turning a lot warmer. Several of them have 850hPa temperatures climbing to between 15C and 20C which would lead to hot conditions at the ground level if cloud and rain don't interfere.
At this stage most of the runs are keeping things close to the average, but recent GEFS updates have continued to show a possibility of the heat returning by the end of June or in early July. I'd put the chance of it at around 25% based on the current data.
The lower half of the plot shows the rain forecasts from all of the individual runs in the GEFS. Spikes start to appear from around 23rd June due to the risk of showers. They then continue to show up through the rest of the 16 day period and there are a few big ones indicating a risk of heavy rain. Nonetheless, it doesn't look like a washout, although comparable charts for locations further north and west show a wetter scenario.
The fine weather is set to be replaced by cooler and more changeable weather later this week. All regions can expect showers or longer spells of rain with the north west having the wettest conditions.
After a warm or very warm start temperatures fall back to the seasonal average or a little below it. By the start of July there is a possibility of it turning a lot warmer again.
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