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Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
The next week is likely to bring warm conditions at times. However, things look changeable and most of the UK will see showers or longer spells of rain as well as dry and sunny periods.
The London GEFS 06z plot below shows forecast 850hPa temperatures mostly remaining above the 30 year average during the next 16 days. There are some dips, but on the whole it's potentially a warm picture.
Temperatures down at the ground level could be expected to reach the mid 20Cs on some days. The big caveat is "if the sun shines" because at this time of the year it will be relatively cool in wet and cloudy periods regardless of the air mass.
So will there be a lot of dry and sunny weather? There almost certainly will be fine periods, but the lower half of the plot suggests an ongoing risk of rain, either in the form of showers or more persistent outbreaks. There could be some thundery spells in the mix too.
Plots for locations further north show more rain spikes. Therefore, although big day to day variations can be expected the wettest conditions are likely to be in the north west and the driest in the south east. That general pattern probably remains in place until the end of the month.
Rather warm but changeable seems to be the name of the game. In sunny spells temperatures could quickly climb into the mid 20Cs. Nonetheless, the ongoing risk of cloud and showers or longer periods of rain means there is the likelihood of cooler conditions too.
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