Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
The weather is currently stuck in a rut. High pressure is bringing quiet and dry conditions to much of the UK, although in the north it is somewhat more mixed. In the short term day to day variations will be limited, but how are things looking as we head into February?
The London GEFS 06z plot below shows forecast 850hPa temperatures and precipitation. Until the end of this month most of the individual runs have 850hPa temperatures above the 30 year average. However, during the first third of February the mean clearly dips as more of the ensemble runs bring in colder conditions.
The other things of note can be seen on the lower half of the plot above. The number of spikes increases in February and each one is a run forecasting precipitation (so it could be rain or snow) at that time. The snow row along the bottom reaches 9 out of a possible 33. In other words on any given day the maximum number of the runs forecasting snow in the London area is close to 27%.
The GEFS plot is pointing towards the possibility of colder air masses moving over the UK in February. However, it is not favouring a very cold scenario and a number of the runs are bringing in relatively short incursions from the northwest.
The London plot below is also generated using data from the GEFS 06z. It shows the pressure forecasts from all of the individual runs for the next 16 days. In the next week there is good agreement for high pressure to remain dominant, although there is a dip around the 27th January as a weak trough pushes southeastwards.
By the early part of February things become more uncertain with the forecasts ranging from approximately 970mB to 1045mB. Nonetheless, there is a downwards trend and it looks as though high pressure will probably becoming centred away from the UK at times. That fits in with the possibility of transient pulses of colder air moving down from a northerly quadrant.
What would the above mean for our weather? If it develops as the GEFS is suggesting there would be an increased chance of sleet or snow showers in the north. There would also be the likelihood of longer spells of rain moving southeastwards and hill snow in the north.
The long spell of high pressure domination continues in the short term; however, there are signs of a change by early February. At this stage cold snaps or incursions are favoured rather than a cold spell. The caveat I will add is that the transition to a colder pattern has been pushed back a few days in recent GEFS updates and it could easily fade away. Whether or not this winter will finally bite remains very uncertain.
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