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Colder next week

What chance snow?

Posted 19th November, 18:28

The weather has been mild for much of November but a change is on the way. By Sunday Arctic air pushes southwards across the UK and it is looking colder next week. Time to dig out the winter woolies, but is it worth greasing the sledge runners?

High pressure in the Atlantic

The reason for the expected change is that a ridge of high pressure will build northwards in the mid Atlantic. That leads to winds over the UK coming from a northerly quadrant.

Day to day details will vary and it is not looking particularly cold. Nonetheless, there is a risk of showers turning to sleet or snow at times in the northern half of the UK and particularly over high ground. The chance of some wintriness in the south is lower but not entirely out of the equation.

The chart below is for Thursday, 25th November. It shows rather cold upper level air moving down across the UK with high pressure centred to the west. Showers would mostly be in coastal counties with many inland locations having a dry and chilly day.

UK Met 12z North Atlantic chart, init 19th November 2021

Another plunge from the north

In the days which follow there are indications of another cold plunge from the north or northwest. The chart below is for Friday 26th November. It shows milder air moving down from the northwest so the weather fronts associated with the area of low pressure to the north would be bringing rain and most snow to most of the UK.

However, they would probably clear southeastwards through the weekend and be followed by a blast of colder air. Showers would again turn wintry, particularly over high ground in the north.

UK Met 12z North Atlantic chart 2, init 19th November 2021

 

TL;DR

Lower temperatures are expected in all parts of the UK for much of next week. It isn't looking particularly cold but there is a growing risk of showers falling as sleet or snow at times in the north. Frosts could also be quite widespread on some nights. 

The rather cold theme probably continues into the following week. The risk of transient sleet or snow may spread further southwards.   

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