TWO Buzz

Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.

More mixed in late July

Change next week?

Posted 17th July, 13:48

The coming days bring predominantly settled and warm weather. However, there are signs of a change during the last week of the month.

More unsettled late July?

The London GEFS 00z plot below shows upper air temperatures dipping early next week. Despite that they remain close to the 30 year mean and then quickly trend upwards again. During the last week of the month they return back towards the norm. 

The lower half of the graph shows forecast rain from all of the runs in the ensemble. It suggests that although an odd shower isn't out of the question, it is a mainly dry picture until July 23rd. Thereafter, some big rain spikes appear and they could well be indicating the potential for thundery conditions.

There is some doubt about how long the more unsettled period will last for, assuming it happens at all, with signs of it turning drier again from around July 28th. Nonetheless, the signal is for cooler and more mixed weather in late July.

GEFS 00z London, init 17th July 2021

Plots for locations further north and west show a similar pattern.

UK forecast locations

The Place and postcode picker at the top of the page was upgraded on 17th July, 2021. The number of UK locations in the database was increased from around 5,000 to 50,000! That makes it MUCH easier to find a forecast for your locality. 

More enhancements are on the way soon so keep a look out. The resolution of the forecasts will be increased further to make them more localised and a number of new features will be added. 

If you've already bookmarked a forecast don't worry. All existing locations will continue to work and they can still be selected. If you have a website, Facebook page or other social media account and want to link to a specific location please go ahead.

TL;DR

The short term will bring more dry weather. Temperatures dip a little, but it remains warm and the mercury could climb again for a time next week. Through the last week of July a transition to a more unsettled pattern is looking likely. Downpours and thunderstorms potentially become quite widespread for a time.

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