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Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Temperatures will be climbing this week. In the south it looks like becoming very warm and the hottest day of the year so far could be recorded. Things are more mixed in the north and particularly the north west.
Temperatures won't be too far from the average to begin with, but as we go through the mercury rises. The warmest day of the year so far was June 2nd when 28.3C was reached at Northolt in London. It looks as though that could be beaten between Friday and Sunday, but there is some uncertainty.
The GFS 06z chart below for Friday, 11th June has maximum temperatures of 26C in the London area. Given the tendency of the GFS to undershoot, I wouldn't be surprised if 28C was recorded. It goes on to show values rising through the weekend.
London 2m maximum temperatures
There are signs of cooler air returning from the Atlantic early next week, but the details and timing of the transition are uncertain. However, there is a realistic possibility of 30C being reached in the UK for this first time this year before temperatures dip.
Things are more mixed the further north west you go due to an Atlantic influence. In many ways this is a typical pattern for the UK summer, with the Azores high pressure having more influence over the southern half of the country.
The prospects become more uncertain from about 15th June as the London GEFS 16 day plot below illustrates. On the top half the mean (thick purple line) 850hPa temperature is gently pulled downwards as a significant number of runs bring cooler air back. Nonetheless, the signal isn't very strong at the moment, with plenty of the ensemble runs keeping things on the warm side of average.
The lower part of the plot shows rain forecasts from all of the GEFS runs. It's a mostly dry picture until about June 15th, then a number of spikes appear. Despite that, it doesn't suggest a transition to very wet conditions. In much of the south it could remain mainly dry with any rain being showery in nature.
Comparable plots for locations farther north show a wetter picture and generally cooler picture.
Temperatures will be climbing through the coming days, especially in the southern half of the UK. By the end of the week a new warmest day of the year so far may have happened and the first 30C of the summer is looking marginal, but possible. Next week a transition to somewhat cooler and more changeable conditions is favoured, but rain amounts in the south may be small.
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