Enter a UK place or postcode or use
Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Cool and unsettled weather is set to continue through the next few days. Are there any signs of things changing in the longer term?
The dry period which lasted for much of April has now broken, with most of the UK seeing rain in recent days. As we head through the rest of the week there will be further showers or longer spells of rain.
The chart below is for midday on Saturday 8th May. It shows heavy rain and strong winds pushing northeastwards across the UK. Recent computer model runs have been predicting the same general pattern quite consistently. Therefore, the details could change, for example the wet weather could arrive a little earlier or later. However, there is a high degree of confidence that it will be turning up.
GFS, rain and snow, 12:00 Saturday, 8th May
One of the things to notice on the chart above is wind direction. In the short term things are coming from a cold northerly quadrant, but as the rain moves northeastwards a milder southwesterly flow returns. That should bring higher temperatures, at least for a time.
The maximum temperature forecast chart below for 15GMT on Thursday, 6th May shows below average values. Even adding a couple of Celsius onto the raw model output would produce a very underwhelming picture for early May. Another point to bear in mind is that when the showers come along values take a tumble. As I'm writing this a shower has just knocked the temperature down from 12.4C to 7C in no time at all!
As I mentioned, there is the likelihood of somewhat higher temperatures by Sunday, at least in the southern half of the UK. The raw values on the chart below are going for 17C in East Anglia, so perhaps 19C or even 20C wouldn't be out of the question.
The warmer conditions will probably be temporary. As the area of low pressure bringing the wet weather pulls away northeastwards, colder air from the north is likely to return southwards.
Beyond that things become more uncertain. There are suggestions of high pressure building to the north of the UK. If that happened the most settled weather could be expected in Scotland, with a greater risk of showers or longer spells of rain in the south.
Unsettled weather continues through the coming days, with all regions seeing showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures remain low for early May to begin with, but this weekend it could turn somewhat warmer in the southern half of the UK.
Early next week cooler and showery air probably returns southwards. In the longer term things become very uncertain.
You are subscribed to push notifications.
You are not subscribed.
Click the Notify Me! button and then Allow. You can stop them at any time.
Open from 7am to 11pm. Off topic comments may result in your account being blocked.
Authenticate with your TWO forum account, or your Facebook, Google or Twitter account.
Add chart. Must be from TWO forecast models
Get weather updates by email
Summer 2021 weather
GFS v16 model upgrade
Spring weather outlook
Winter 2020-21 summary
14 day outlook
7 day timeline
7 day forecast
16 day forecast
16 day risk