TWO Buzz

Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.

Cool and unsettled weather

Warming this weekend?

Posted 4th May,15:54

Cool and unsettled weather is set to continue through the next few days. Are there any signs of things changing in the longer term?

Wet weather

The dry period which lasted for much of April has now broken, with most of the UK seeing rain in recent days. As we head through the rest of the week there will be further showers or longer spells of rain.

The chart below is for midday on Saturday 8th May. It shows heavy rain and strong winds pushing northeastwards across  the UK. Recent computer model runs have been predicting the same general pattern quite consistently. Therefore, the details could change, for example the wet weather could arrive a little earlier or later. However, there is a high degree of confidence that it will be turning up.

GFS 06z rain and pressure forecast for 8th May 2021

GFS, rain and snow, 12:00 Saturday, 8th May

One of the things to notice on the chart above is wind direction. In the short term things are coming from a cold northerly quadrant, but as the rain moves northeastwards a milder southwesterly flow returns. That should bring higher temperatures, at least for a time.  

Temperatures often below par

The maximum temperature forecast chart below for 15GMT on Thursday, 6th May shows below average values. Even adding a couple of Celsius onto the raw model output would produce a very underwhelming picture for early May. Another point to bear in mind is that when the showers come along values take a tumble. As I'm writing this a shower has just knocked the temperature down from 12.4C to 7C in no time at all!

GFS06z max temperatures forecast for 6th May 2021
GFS, temperatures, 15:00 Thursday, 6th May

As I mentioned, there is the likelihood of somewhat higher temperatures by Sunday, at least in the southern half of the UK. The raw values on the chart below are going for 17C in East Anglia, so perhaps 19C or even 20C wouldn't be out of the question. 

GFS06z max temperatures forecast for 9th May 2021
GFS, temperatures, 15:00 Sunday, 9th May

The warmer conditions will probably be temporary. As the area of low pressure bringing the wet weather pulls away northeastwards, colder air from the north is likely to return southwards. 

Beyond that things become more uncertain. There are suggestions of high pressure building to the north of the UK. If that happened the most settled weather could be expected in Scotland, with a greater risk of showers or longer spells of rain in the south.


Unsettled weather continues through the coming days, with all regions seeing showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures remain low for early May to begin with, but this weekend it could turn somewhat warmer in the southern half of the UK.

Early next week cooler and showery air probably returns southwards. In the longer term things become very uncertain.

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