Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
The weather is entering a relatively quiet period, with high pressure having a good deal of influence. Despite that, some day to day variability is expected and the possibility of more unsettled interludes remains.
The London GEFS 06z plot below shows surface pressure forecasts for the next 16 day from all of the runs in the ensemble model. There is a gentle downwards trend, but even by the end of the period the mean of the runs is close to 1020mB suggesting relatively high pressure.
There are signs of a dip around the 19th April as disturbances from the Atlantic try to push in. However, at the moment it looks as though they will have a limited influence on things in central and eastern England. Rain is more likely in the west.
Therefore, the current indication is that we can expect drier than average weather for much of the rest of the month. Although things become become less certain later on with some of the runs in the ensemble going for lower pressure and a more changeable theme.
Temperatures to a large extent will be dependent on where the high pressure is centred and the amount of cloud. Clear skies allow for warmer days and cooler nights. In fact the risk of ground frost may continue even in southern counties and in the north there is a greater risk of air frost.
The DWD ICON chart below for Wednesday 21st April shows the high pressure becoming centred to the northeast of the UK. The pattern fits in quite well with a number of other recent computer model runs. In general terms high pressure often looks more likely to be centred to the north of the UK than the south.
The GEFS 06z London 2m temperature spread below shows a gradual warming trend developing. The position of the high pressure on most of the model runs isn't ideal for tapping into very warm air, but there is the potential for it to become a lot more pleasant than it has been recently!
Often the GEFS under forecasts temperatures by a couple of Celsius, so we could be looking at maximum values of between 15C and 20C in the south or perhaps even a little higher.
In the north values could be lower, although there is a realistic chance that some of the warmest conditions may be in northern and western Scotland.
Despite some more mixed interludes there is a signal for a good deal of dry weather in the next couple of weeks. High pressure is expected to be the key player, but the specifics depend on where it is centred. Temperatures will probably increase steadily and in areas where sunny spells develop it should feel pleasantly warm.
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