Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Cold weather continues for the rest of the week across the UK. Wintry showers will be focused in the north and west with snow in places. In the south there is a risk of more prolonged spells of rain, sleet and snow.
There has been some snow in the south this winter but many places have missed it or only had a slushy covering. Could that change this weekend? Possibly.
The GFS 06z chart below shows a disturbance tracking across the English Channel or southern counties this Sunday. I flagged up the possibility in the 14 day video forecast. Although the details remain uncertain it has the potential to bring rain, sleet and snow to southern Britain. As has often been the case this winter parameters are quite marginal and even if the precipitation arrives some places could end up wet rather than white.
GFS 06z MSLP and precipitation type, 12:00 GMT Sun 24th January
The Meteo France Arpege 6z model shows the disturbance bringing patchy rain, sleet and snow southern Wales and south western England at 06:00GMT on Sunday 24th January.
The earlier 00z update which goes further ahead showed the precipitation taking a more southerly track. That is still a possibility, so as well as wet and white outcomes it may be that much of southern Britain remains dry.
The 6z DWD ICON EU model shows the snow becoming quite extensive in southern Wales and southern England. The northern extent is close to London and the home counties. It's possible the heavier bursts of precipitation (causing evaporative cooling) are one of the reasons why the model is showing more snow and less rain in the mix.
Taking the above model data into account I'd not be surprised if parts of the south see their first snow cover of the winter. However, it's not a given and the disturbance could develop differently. If it tracks further south more places will stay dry. Alternatively, if it goes north then rain will be more likely than snow in places.
Changeable weather is currently favoured next week. Weather fronts and milder air from the Atlantic are expected to begin returning. The northeastwards progression of them could be slow and on their leading edge there is the potential for snow. There's a chance of significant snow in the northern half of the UK, so that is something to keep an eye on.
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Rather cold or cold conditions are set to continue for the rest of this week. Wintry showers affect the north and west giving snow to down to low levels at times. In the south there is a risk of more prolonged spells of rain, sleet and snow this weekend. Some places could record their first snow cover of the winter.
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