Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Posted 25th September, 15:45
The weather has turned cooler across the UK in the last few days. In the short term it remains chilly and there is a risk of night frosts, particularly in sheltered northern and western locations. As we head into October things look very mixed.
Today's 16 day GEFS 06z London chart illustrates well. On the upper half of the plot 850hPa temperatures are initially below the 30 year average. They recover early next week then stay close to the average for the rest of the run. There are some warm runs with 850hPa temperatures approaching 15C but they are currently in a minority.
On the lower half of the plot lots of rain spikes appear in early October. Therefore, the likelihood is things will be pretty unsettled with areas of low pressure steaming in from the Atlantic. However, in the shorter term there should be a reasonable amount of dry weather.
The picture across the rest of the UK is a similar one. The GEFS 06z plot below for Glasgow looks similar to the London one, although a little wetter and with fewer warm runs in the mix .
Regular readers may have noticed the GEFS plots looking a little different to usual. The reason is that National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) who run the model recently upgraded it. There are many changes but key ones are:
1) Improved physics and higher resolution
2) 30 (instead of 20) perturbations + the control run
3) The morning 00z update now goes out to 35 days instead of 16
The new datasets have been integrated into TWO but the 35 day plots haven't started appearing yet - don't worry, they soon will!
What all of the above means is slightly more accurate medium range forecasts. The changes are exciting but it's important NOT to oversell them. Most of the quick wins in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) have been made and improvements now are incremental. If you hear differently take it with a big dose of salt!
In the short term there will be a reasonable amount of dry and chilly weather. As we head into October it is looking like turning more unsettled with periods of rain and strong winds likely in all of the UK.
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