TWO Buzz

Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.

The heat is on

30C as summer pays a late visit

Posted 12th September, 15:40

The weather is set to turn much warmer during the next few days. In the south it will become hot and temperatures are expected to climb above 30C in places.

32C possible on Tuesday?

The GEM temperature chart for 15GMT, Tuesday 15th September shows the hottest conditions in East Anglia and the south eastern corner. The highest value is 31C but I wouldn't be very surprised if we went a degree or even two higher. (Look at the 35C just miles away in northern France!) 

GEM 00z temperatures, init 12th September

The heat will be the result of low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east. It leaves the UK under a very warm southerly air stream. The all time UK September max temperature probably isn't under threat but Tuesday could well see a date record for the 15th of the month.



There's a realistic possibility of 30C being recorded on Monday too. By Wednesday cooler air should begin to move down from the northeast as high pressure migrates to the north of the UK. Nonetheless it will probably still be warm or even very warm in the south.

Cooler later in the week?

By Thursday somewhat cooler weather should have returned to all parts of the UK. The ECM 00z model chart below shows cooler upper level air indicated by green shading pushing down across most of the UK by Thursday 17th September.  

ECM 00z 850hPa temperatures, init 12th September 2020

In the north temperatures will probably be close to the mid September average. In the south there is uncertainty with a growing signal from computer models for it to stay rather warm for the time of year. Daytime maximum temperatures could remain in the 22C to 27C range for much of the second half of the week in the south. 

TL;DR

Hot weather returns to southern counties during the early part of next week. Temperatures should exceed 30C in places with Tuesday probably bringing peak heat. The warmth spreads northwards and in eastern Scotland 25C isn't out of the question. During the middle part of the week cooler air begins to push down across the UK but temperatures in the south may well remain above the average.

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