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After a good deal of fine weather in June a transition to more unsettled weather took place during July. Early in the month temperatures peaked at over 30C (86F) in the south, but the second half of the month saw cooler Atlantic air becoming dominant. At times it felt very unseasonable. Despite that change the Central England Temperature is about 1C above the average for the month as a whole. How is August looking?
August looks like beginning on a varied note but will the last month of the meteorological summer see a return to the fine weather we saw in June?
The TWO monthly headline is for August to be quite a mixed month with temperatures close to average in the north and slightly above in the south. Rainfall levels are forecast to be close to average. Overall confidence is quite low because some of the medium range computer models are suggesting the possibility of a return to more settled weather. The TWO view is that on balance an Atlantic based pattern is more likely to win out than a blocked high pressure scenario, and that suggests quite a changeable outlook. Nonetheless small adjustments to the set-up of the pressure blocks across the North Atlantic region could lead to a much more settled and warmer month.
The GEFS chart below shows forecast pressure patterns for Tuesday 15th August from each model run in the ensemble. The GEFS suggests the greatest probability of warmer and drier weather is in the south.
See the monthly forecast update for more information.
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